Is a 40-plus touchdown season realistic for Penn State quarterback Drew Allar?: Buy or sell

Penn State quarterback Drew Allar wants to be part of the Heisman Trophy conversation in 2024. There is hope inside and outside of the program that his second season as a starter and first year with new offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki will take his game to new heights. It’s true too, of course, that his first season as the program’s QB1 was not exactly horrendous on the stat sheet. But, the good (25 passing touchdowns to two interceptions) was often overlooked by the bad (a 59.90 completion percentage that ranked 75th nationally, for example) and the fact that the Lions offense was often stuck in the mud against the toughest opponents.

The struggles are hardly all on Allar, of course. From receivers who struggled with consistency to an attack that was often criticized under the direction of Mike Yurcich, there was plenty of blame to go around. With all of that said, for Penn State to be its best in 2024, Allar will need to be better, too.

Our latest buy or sell segment focuses on the third-year Nittany Lion. It asks this: Is a 40-plus passing touchdown season realistic? We ask not because he necessarily needs to throw that many for Penn State to qualify for the 12-team College Football Playoff for the first time. But, it’s an interesting number to work with when you consider the last six Heisman-winning quarterbacks eclipsed that mark during the season they won the coveted individual honor.

Reasons for buying or selling Drew Allar throwing 40 or more touchdown passes in 2024

There is little doubt that the talent is there. It was on display when the Ohio native was a five-star recruit. It was also seen during his first season as a starter in 2023. You are clinging to those good moments, and also Allar’s ability to protect the football, if you’re buying that he could throw for 40 or more scoring strikes to firmly put himself in the Heisman race. You also believe in both Kotelnicki’s creativity as a play caller to unlock Allar from a schematic standpoint while also getting him to a point where he makes more risky throws that can lead to scores or interceptions. Last and absolutely certainly not least, someone would need to catch those touchdown passes, of course, which means the receivers room must take as big a step forward as the man throwing them the ball.

If you find yourself on the other side of the coin, there are plenty of things you can point to. One of them is a lack of confidence in the receivers. Another is the uncertainty that Allar will be more accurate in 2024. You could also be concerned about touchdown distribution, as running backs Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen are going to get their time to shine on the ground, of course. And, you could be concerned about Beau Pribula vulturing redzone snaps, too. All are valid reasons why this won’t happen.

Are we buying or selling 40-plus touchdown passes for Penn State QB Drew Allar in 2024?

I am extremely torn on this one. On one hand, Kotelnicki brings a history of scoring with him to Penn State. We do believe he will improve the offense. Does that necessarily mean Allar’s passing touchdown stats go through the roof? It does not. The new offensive coordinator himself talks a lot about being multiple. That’s in scheme and personnel. And, while Allar could have a better year, that doesn’t guarantee that he’ll throw 40-plus passing touchdowns. It feels like there just might be too many mouths to feed, so to speak, for that to happen.

So, we’re selling on this question. What do you think? Tell us on The Lions Den message board!

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