Iowa Women’s Basketball Tip Time Preview: Northern Iowa
NORTHERN IOWA PANTHERS (5-5) VS #22 IOWA HAWKEYES (9-2)
TIME: 6:30pm CT
TV: BTN+ – AJ Reisetter and Logan Moel
SERIES: 30th Meeting – Iowa leads the series 26-3 – Iowa has won the last nine meetings in Iowa City
BY THE NUMBERS
OFFENSE: IOWA: 75.5 PPG, 47.3% FG, 31.8% 3PT, 17.4 TO NORTHERN IOWA: 75.6 PPG, 46.1% FG, 39.5% 3PT, 14.1 TO
DEFENSE: IOWA: 61.9 PPG, 37.1% FG, 31.2% 3PT, 17.7 TO, +8.2 REB MARGIN NORTHERN IOWA: 68.0 PPG, 42.1% FG, 34.3% 3PT, 17.6 TO, +0.5 REB MARGIN
IOWA HAWKEYES PROJECTED STARTING LINEUP
Lucy OlsenPoint Guard5-10/ Sr.Averaging team-high 18.3 PPG, 3.8 REB and 4.9 AST. Second on the team in made field goals (63). Recorded 15 pts, 5 ast in six of nine games. 13 pts, 7 turnovers vs Michigan StateKylie FeuerbachGuard6-0/ rSr.Averaging 7.2 PPG and 3.3 REB. Second on the team in made threes (16). Recorded six steals against NIU. 12 pts, 3 reb vs Michigan StateSyd AffolterGuard5-11/ Sr.Averaging 6.1 PPG and 6.9 REB. Big Ten All-Tournament Team last season. Grabbed 8+ rebounds in the four of last six games. 4 pts, 6 reb, 3 ast vs Michigan StateHannah StuelkeForward6-2/ Jr.Averaging 13.9 PPG and 7.6 REB. Second Team All-Big Ten last season. Third on the team in made field goals (48). 18 pts, 8 reb vs Michigan StateAddi O’GradyCenter6-4/ Sr.Averaging 13.0 PPG and 5.4 REB. Shooting 66.7% from the floor, leads the team in made field goals (64). 4 pts, 6 reb vs Michigan State
NORTHERN IOWA PANTHERS PROJECTED STARTING LINEUP
Maya McDermottPoint Guard5-6/ Sr.Averaging 21.9 PPG, 2.5 REB and 4.9 AST. Leads the team in made field goals (80), second in made threes (26). Registered 20+ points in six games. 12 pts, 3 reb vs South Dakota StateKayba LaubeGuard5-9/ Sr.Averaging 14.4 PPG and 3.4 REB. Leads the team in made threes (36) and 3pt percentage (52.2%). Career-high 10 made threes vs Pittsburgh. 12 pts, 2 reb vs South Dakota StateRyley GoebelForward5-11/ Jr.Averaging 9.1 PPG, 6.2 REB and 2.8 STL. One of three players in the top 75 in steals (28) and blocks (25). 8 pts, 3 reb vs South Dakota StateShateah WeteringForward6-0/ Sr.Former Hawkeye. Averaging 5.1 PPG and 1.9 REB. Has started the last four games. Shooting 48.6% from the floor.Elise JaegerForward6-1/ Fr.True freshman, #3 player in Iowa. Averaging 6.4 PPG and 5.8 REB. Recorded 5+ rebounds in eight games. 6 pts, 5 reb vs South Dakota State
NORTHERN IOWA PLAYER TO WATCH: Guard Kayba Laube
As good as Maya McDermott has been for the Panthers this season, senior guard Kayba Laube is someone that can win UNI a game with her three-point shooting. She ranks fourth in the country in made threes per game (3.6), while shooting a flaming 52.2% from behind the arc. Laube has made 3+ threes in six games this season, including a career-high ten made triples against Pittsburgh.
Most of her scoring comes from three-point range, as 80.2% of her 86 field goal attempts have come from long distance. If the Hawkeyes let Laube get comfortable and get open looks, she’s someone that can change the complexion of the game.
IOWA PLAYER TO WATCH: Point guard Lucy Olsen
Lucy Olsen has been a very consistent player for the Hawkeyes so far this season, recording six games with at least 15 points and five assists. Overall, she is averaging 18.3 points per game and shooting 44.7% from the floor. Last time out against Michigan State, Olsen had her first off night of the season, finishing with a season-low 13 points on 4/17 shooting and seven turnovers in the 68-66 loss. I expect to see Lucy come out determined to put that performance behind her, totaling at least 20 points and five assists.
KEY MATCHUP TO WATCH: Iowa vs UNI defensive pressure
“They run a lot of defensive stuff,” says Jan Jensen. “They’re going to trap you at half court, they’re going to pick you up three-quarter court, sometimes it’s going to be full court.”
The Hawkeyes have struggled against teams that have pressured them, totaling 75 (25.0) turnovers against Rhode Island, Tennessee and Michigan State. Although UNI ranks just 161st in the country in turnovers forced per game (17.6), 6-foot-1 guard Ryley Goebel is unique in the press with her length. She is averaging 2.8 steals per game, which ranks 32nd in the country, while Maya McDermott has 12 steals.
With what Iowa has put on tape when facing pressure defense, I wouldn’t be surprised if Tanya Warren throws the kitchen sink at the Hawkeyes in terms of the variety of looks, they show.
BREAKING DOWN THE PANTHERS
Under the direction of 18th-year head coach Tanya Warren, the Panthers have gotten off to a 5-5 start this season, with six of their ten games coming against the NET Top 100. Although they are just 1-5 in those games, they did earn a huge upset win over then #8 Iowa State back on November 20th.
Breaking down the rest of the UNI starting lineup, fifth-year senior guard Maya McDermott has really taken her game to the next-level this season. She ranks eighth in the country in scoring, averaging 21.9 points per game, including six games with 20+ points and a 37-point outburst against Iowa State. A crafty guard, that can score at all levels, McDermott has not only increased her production, but is scoring more efficiently than she has in previous years. She’s shooting 48.2% from the floor and 46.4% from three-point range, while also averaging a career-high 4.9 assists per game. Maya is an Iowa City native and will certainly be trying her best to avoid an 0-5 career record against the Hawkeyes.
Looking at the UNI frontcourt, 5-foot-11 forward Ryley Goebel has been really impactful on the defensive end this season. She is one of just three players in the country to rank in the top 75 in steals (28) and blocked shots (25), joining FSU’s Makayla Timpson and USC’s Juju Watkins. Goebel is averaging 9.1 points and 6.2 rebounds per game, totaling at least eight points and six rebounds in seven games. If the Panthers are going to have a chance in this one, they will need Goebel to make an impact on both ends of the floor.
At center, 6-foot-1 true freshman Elise Jaeger has been forced to play major minutes with Grace Boffeli out for the season with a torn ACL. The #3 rated player in Iowa by Prep Girls Hoops has appeared in all ten games, with seven starts, averaging 6.4 points and 5.8 rebounds per game. Jaeger does have a better perimeter game, shooting 7 of 17 (41.2%) from three-point range. She registered a double-double, 11 points and 12 rebounds against South Dakota.
Rounding out the Panthers starting lineup is former Hawkeye forward Shateah Wetering. She saw limited time in her three years at Iowa, missing her sophomore season with an ACL tear. Since coming to UNI, Wetering has appeared in 40 games with 35 starts, averaging 5.1 points in eight games this season. Although she’s not a huge scorer, Shateah has scored 35 points over the last five games, including ten points against South Dakota.
Off the bench, the Panthers don’t have a ton of depth, with just two players that average more than ten minutes per game. Junior guard Taryn Wharton is averaging 7.2 points and 24.9 minutes per game. Wharton is shooting 39.2% from the floor and is attempting 7.4 shots per game, while she has scored in double figures in two games, including putting up 16 points against Green Bay.
The other sub to know is 6-foot-2 sophomore forward Katy Ryerson. She is averaging just 3.4 points and 11.0 minutes per game, but has combined for 13 points and 12 rebounds over the last two games, including a pair of made threes against South Dakota.
Shooting Heat Maps (CBB Analytics): Iowa and Northern Iowa
A deeper look at the advanced stats behind the matchup between the Hawkeyes and Panthers…
THE PICK
Warren Nolan Projection: IOWA 83 NORTHERN IOWA 64
Bart Torvik Projection: IOWA 78 NORTHERN IOWA 64
Both Warren Nolan and Torvik like the Hawkeyes to win comfortably, but I think this one will be closer than they are projecting. Northern Iowa’s 5-5 record looks worse than it is, as all five losses are to NET Top 100 teams, with four of them coming by a combined 14 points.
The Panthers have struggled on the glass since Boffeli went down with her ACL injury and have a -5.33-rebound margin against NET Top 100 teams, while Iowa is +8.33 in such games. That’s a really large gap. Defensively, UNI has not been great, ranking 251st in points per possession, but have been able to make up for it with their slower pace of play. If the Panthers control the tempo, this game may struggle to reach the mid 70’s. Iowa responded really well after the loss to Tennessee, and I expect the same type of response tonight. IOWA 77 NORTHERN IOWA 68
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