How new look Big Ten impact Iowa athletics?

When we write the history of college athletics someday in the future, August 4, 2023 will be one of the most significant days ever. It was the day that a conference that had been in existence for over 100 years in one form or another, opened the day thinking it might survive and by the middle of the afternoon it was essentially gone.

The Pac 12 looked like it was done on Thursday night with rumblings that Arizona was ready to bolt for the Big 12 and the Big Ten had been having conversations with Oregon and Washington. Then earlier in the morning the most well connected college football writers were hinting at an optimistic feeling around the Pac 12 and that perhaps they would step back from the ledge of blowing up the conference.

About an hour later it was essentially over. 100 years of history, done.

By the end of the evening, a league that will play this year with 12 members was down to only 4 schools in the conference. It was a remarkable moment. Some might say it was stunning, but in retrospect, it was a long time coming thanks to poor leadership and management.

We have to go back to a little over two years when the Big Ten raided the Pac 12 and picked off USC and UCLA. That started all these dominoes to start to fall. Once the Big 12 also opened up their media rights negotiations a year earlier than they were scheduled to do so and landed a $32 million dollar per school agreement with ESPN and Fox, that was a death blow for the Pac 12.

The Pac 12 over estimated their value initially, the Big 12 took what they thought was good deal and at that point the main media partners had filled their needs. A last ditch effort by the Pac 12 to work a deal with Apple for approximately $20 million a year never gained the needed support.

Which brought us to Friday when the artist formerly known as the conference of champions was reduced to rubble.

A day earlier the Big Ten indicated to media members that they were reluctant to possible offer membership to Pac 12 schools because it could destabilize the conference. Well, they actually did that two years ago when they lured UCLA and USC away, but anyway…

Eventually on Friday, the Big Ten simply made their move. They offered membership to Washington and Oregon starting next season. Those home and away schedules for 2024-25 that the Big Ten released this summer can now be thrown in the trash because the conference will be back to square one with a conference that is now at 18.

Shortly after the Big Ten made their move, the Big 12 picked up the scraps and announced that Arizona, Arizona State, and Utah would be joining Colorado as new members starting next season.

With all this established, what does it mean for Iowa athletics?

Last year the Big Ten announced that they had agreed to a media rights deal that would run seven years and be worth over 7 billion dollars. You don’t have to a math major to figure out that it means they are going to receive a billion per year from NBC, CBS, FOX, and the Big Ten Network. Previously the Big Ten media rights deal was at approximately $440 million per year.

The expectation is that Big Ten schools, before the news today, were slated to bring in between 60-70 million per school next year with a gradual increase each year during the life of the contract.

Matt Fortuna, formerly of The Athletic and now writing his own blog, reported that Washington and Oregon would be given a media rights deal of 30 million in the first year with a one million dollar increase every year for the life the current media rights deal, which runs for seven years.

It should be noted that this action by the Big Ten is not unique. In fact it’s pretty much the norm. Schools like Penn State, Nebraska, Maryland, and Rutgers did not receive a full share for several years after they joined the Big Ten.

The biggest question for Hawkeye fans is how will this impact Iowa athletics?

The answer at this point is more unknown than known. We do know that adding two more west coast schools will add cost to the budget. It’s not easy to make it to Eugene and Seattle is a long plane flight.

With regard to the overall financial media rights revenue that will be shared, we don’t know if that will be impacted. Will the conference find a new small revenue stream to cover Washington and Oregon? Time will tell. I would expect Iowa’s revenue stream to stay pretty close to expectations with little to no drop.

What about football and future schedules? Will the conference go to ten league games?

We don’t know the answer to either of these questions. Obviously the schedule that was put out this summer is no longer valid. I think we also have to note that we also don’t know if they will back to divisions and we don’t know if Iowa will continue to have three protected rivalries in Minnesota, Nebraska, and Wisconsin. It does feel like the Hawkeyes protecting three opponents might be coming to a close.

With respect to the ten game schedule, again, no indication at this point what the Big Ten will do.

Will this limit Iowa’s chances to win a conference title in any sport?

Of course it will. The more schools you add to the league, the more competition and the more difficult it will become to win a conference crown. That’s just the reality. I do wonder if the Big Ten will be putting divisions together and I also wonder if the conference will hold a conference title out west like perhaps play it in Los Angeles.

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