How many victories will it take to win the Big 12?
The No. 19 Texas Longhorns currently sit atop the Big 12 Conference standings with a 6-3 record, just ahead of second-place TCU and Oklahoma State. The Horned Frogs and the Cowboys have more conference victories than the Horns, with OSU also claiming a 2-1 series win over UT. But by virtue of Texas’ .667 winning percentage compared to the second-place mark of .583, the Horns are the league’s top team at this early juncture.
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Since the conference schedule became a 24-game slate in 2012 upon the departure of Nebraska from the Big 12, the lowest number of games won by a Big 12 regular season champion or co-champion is 16 (2013 Kansas State, 2017 Texas Tech/TCU, 2019 Texas Tech, 2022 TCU).
Texas has won the league twice in that span, and both times the Longhorns’ final Big 12 record was 17-7.
Back on March 22, before Big 12 play began, Texas head coach David Pierce was asked what he thought the number needed to win the league might be. One didn’t immediately come to mind, with the Longhorn skipper citing the level of parity in the league as preventing him from offering a figure.
“I don’t think anybody is going undefeated,” Pierce joked. “I don’t know the number. I think you’ve got to do everything you can to be in every game and give yourself a chance to win it. Then it comes down (to), do we make a pitch? Do we make a big swing to make some runs?”
Four teams in the Big 12 have played 12 games. Another four have played nine games. West Virginia has only logged six league contests. Iowa State does not sponsor baseball.
TeamOverall RecordConference RecordConference Win Pct.Texas23-106-3.667TCU20-127-5.583Oklahoma State23-107-5.583Kansas15-155-4.556West Virginia23-93-3.500Kansas State20-146-6.500Texas Tech22-104-5.444Baylor12-204-8.333Oklahoma17-163-6.333
Texas swept Texas Tech in Austin, dropped a series with Oklahoma State in Stillwater, and took 2-of-3 from Kansas State at UFCU Disch-Falk Field over the weekend to get to its current record. Without the conference possessing a truly elite team in 2023, the parity Pierce mentioned in March could create the opportunity for a team with fewer than 16 conference wins to walk away with hardware at the end of the regular season.
Only two teams, Texas and Oklahoma State, are currently in the top 30 of the NCAA’s RPI. Texas is No. 13 while OSU is No. 18.
TCU is No. 32, West Virginia is No. 42. Remaining teams are all ranked lower than No. 69, with Baylor a woeful No. 216 in the metric.
Texas heads to Waco this weekend for a series with the Bears, who have home series wins versus K-State and Oklahoma but suffered sweeps on the road to Kansas and Oklahoma State. Baylor, at 12-20 overall, sputtered through its non conference schedule with series losses to Central Michigan, Duke, and Mercer, a four-game split with 6-24 Youngstown State, plus midweek losses to UTSA and Abilene Christian.
Should the Longhorns sweep BU, they’ll sit at 9-3 halfway through their conference slate. Even a series win would put the Horns at 8-4, on pace for the 16-8 seemingly required to win the league.
Following the trip up IH-35 to Waco, Texas will have Big 12 series versus Oklahoma, at TCU, at Kansas, and versus West Virginia with a non-conference three-game affair with San Jose State the week before the season finale versus the Mountaineers.
Assuming at least a series win for the Longhorns at Baylor, even a .500 finish in conference play would put Texas at 14-10. An 8-4 record through the second half of Big 12 play would put the Horns at that 16-8 mark.
Although the task seems manageable, the biggest hill to climb may be the one waiting in Fort Worth. TCU entered the year ranked No. 15 by D1Baseball, but finally rejoined the rankings this week after a brief absence, checking in at No. 25.
TCU took two-of-three from Oklahoma State over the weekend. A series win over TCU would go a long way toward balancing the series loss the Longhorns suffered in Stillwater.
Remaining conference series for TCU are at WVU, Texas, Baylor, and at Kansas State. Remaining conference series for OSU are West Virginia, at Kansas, Kansas State, and at Oklahoma.
The back half of conference play is always a mad scramble to the finish. Plus, it’s hard to discount 3-3 WVU, who just dropped out of the D1Baseball poll, or Texas Tech or Kansas State factoring into the race considering their solid overall records.
The presence of a number of rather pesky teams throughout the nine-team conference supports Pierce’s description of the Big 12 as one filled with parity. That parity could help the conference title winner make history in a strange way, a way with fewer wins than any other conference champion in the history of the league in its current iteration.
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