Greg McElroy analyzes how Big Ten’s scheduling format impacts College Football Playoff

Last week, the Big Ten unveiled its “Flex Protect Plus” schedule for 2024 and 2025, meaning teams have an uneven number of permanent opponents. With that model, programs have protected rivalries — such as Michigan vs. Ohio State — as well as “two-play,” home-and-home opponents in two-year cycles.

The new formula allows for more freedom for the schedule-makers and can create some mixing-and-matching, especially considering USC and UCLA are on their way in. But one team, Penn State, doesn’t have any permanent opponents for 2024 and 2025. Iowa, for comparison, has three.

That’s why former Alabama quarterback and ESPN analyst Greg McElroy said the Big Ten could create some misconceptions about the schedules, particularly for its top College Football Playoff contenders.

“You can kind of give off the impression — fair or unfair — that you can stack the deck for the teams that are likely to make a playoff run,” McElroy said on Always College Football. “Now, you clearly have two playoff contenders that will play every year, Ohio State and Michigan. We know that. We know that Michigan also has to play what should be a very difficult game against Michigan State annually. So Michigan has two built-in rivals that will be significant and difficult games for them.

“But if you’re Ohio State, you know you have Michigan. But what’s to stop the Big Ten from giving you eight very manageable opponents in order to best curb things to allow them an easier pathway to the playoff?”

McElroy used Georgia’s schedule in the SEC as an example to make his point. The Bulldogs, coming off two straight national championships, have a manageable schedule in 2023. Arguably their toughest opponent is Tennessee on the road, but other than that, it looks to be an easier road for Kirby Smart and his group this season.

That’s because the SEC plays a traditional schedule in which teams know who they’ll play each year in the rotation. The Big Ten isn’t doing that. Instead, it’s not a solidified “rotation” outside of the protected rivalries and two-play games. McElroy said that could open the league up to criticism about the top teams’ schedules.

“If you’re just kind of throwing matchups against the wall, it’d be very easy for you to say, ‘Well, here’s our best playoff contender [Ohio State],’” McElroy said. “‘They have a really difficult game with with Michigan, but let’s take the other eight games and make them a little bit more manageable. We’ll give them the tougher games at home. We’ll get the more manageable games on the road, and we’ll try to line it up accordingly to make sure our best playoff contender is well positioned to make a playoff run.’ I’m not saying that’s what the Big Ten is doing, by the way. I’m just saying if the structure is easy to digest, and it feels less ‘random,’ then you probably won’t have as many naysayers.”

With all that in mind, McElroy had a message for the Big Ten as the dust settles on its new scheduling model.

“I just caution the Big Ten,” McElroy said. “They’re going to be fluid. They’re going to be trying to figure this out, they’re going to iron out wrinkles as they see fit. But I hope that there’s a more digestible structure down the road so that there won’t be people cherry-picking at the ‘weakness’ of some of their playoff contenders schedules.

“It’s going to happen. It’s not going to be right, it’s not going to be necessarily fair. But that’s going to happen. The naysayers are going to find reasons to complain. And if you don’t have a digestible scheduling model, people are going to be coming out of the woodwork.”

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