Game Preview: Utah State vs. Iowa
WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
Kickoff: 11:00 a.m.
TV: FS1 – Jeff Levering and Mark Helfrich on the call.
Last Meeting: Iowa defeated Utah State 48-7 in 2002.
The Weather: Mostly sunny skies with a high around 90. Winds 10-15 mph
The Line: Iowa is a 24 point favorite.
History: Iowa holds a 2-0 edge in the head to head series between the two schools. Iowa won meetings in 1957 and 2002. Kirk Ferentz is two wins shy of 200 career victories as a head coach. Iowa is 11-1-1 against Mountain West schools. This is the second straight year that Iowa has faced a Mountain West school. Last year Iowa beat Nevada, 27-0. Kirk Ferentz is 20-4 in season opening contests as Iowa’s head coach. Utah State is 1-15 against Big Ten schools. Their last win was back in 1968 against Wisconsin.
THE BREAKDOWN
Iowa rush offense vs. Utah State rush defense
If Iowa is going to have a special season, then they are going to have to be able to run the football. The Hawkeyes have three very talented running backs, but the challenge will be can the offensive line show improvement?
Let’s focus on the running backs. They are led by Kaleb Johnson, who rushed for 779 yards and averaged 87.0 yards per game. He had a career high 200 yards last season against Purdue. Johnson is the #1 back heading into the season, but he has very solid competition. Leading that group is LeShon Williams. The junior running back rushed for 413 yards last season and a pair of scores. He’s a tough grinder of a back that can pick up the hard yards. Also chipping in at running back is Jaziun Patterson. He really came on last year during bowl prep and has continued his rise. If Iowa can build a lead on Saturday, look for Patterson to get his chance to shine.
On the other side, Utah State returns just three players from their front seven. That might be a good thing that they have a different look because they allowed 194 yards per game on the ground in 2022. That included giving up 19 rushing touchdowns. MJ Tafisi is the leading returning tackler with 69 stops, including nine for loss. The other key players up front are defensive tackles Hale Motu’apuaka, who had 35 stops, including 8 for loss and Poukesi Vakauta, who had 15 tackles, with three for loss. This sets up for a pretty strong day for the Iowa ground game if Kirk Ferentz is right and the Iowa offensive line has improved. ADVANTAGE: IOWA
Iowa pass offense vs. Utah State pass defense
The last time that Cade McNamara threw a pass in a college football game was September 17th of last year. It was an 18 yard completion and then the now former Michigan quarterback had surgery on his knee and shortly after the end of the season, he transferred to Iowa.
His return to the field of play on Saturday hasn’t been without a bit of drama. McNamara strained his quad at Kids Day on August 12th. It wasn’t sure that he would be ready to play in the opener until the middle of this week. He will bring an impressive resume to the Hawkeye offense. For his career at Michigan, he completed 63% of this passes for 3,181 yards, 21 touchdowns, and 7 interceptions.
Iowa has really improved their receiver’s room in the last year. That starts with the tight end group, led by Luke Lachey and Erick All. McNamara has great chemistry with All, who is also a transfer from Michigan. Lachey caught 28 passes last season for 398 yards and a team high four touchdowns.
The biggest change has been at the wide receiver position. Back for a sixth year is Nico Ragaini has 125 receptions for 1354 yards and five touchdowns in his Iowa career. Diante Vines has had a very strong fall camp. Last year he battled injuries, but he had 10 receptions for 94 yards. He will be starting to begin the season. Two other names to really watch are Seth Anderson and Kaleb Brown. Both players transferred in to Iowa. Anderson from the FCS level where he caught 43 passes for 612 yards and 7 touchdowns. Brown redshirted last year at Ohio State and was a four star recruit.
The Utah State defense and in particularly the secondary, will have a pretty different look. Last year they allowed 205 yards passing per game and had 11 interceptions on the season. Their best defensive back is sophomore safety Ike Larsen. He had four interceptions last season for the Aggie. Another returning starter for Utah State is cornerback Michael Anyanwu. Last season he had 47 stops. He also had one interception, but an impressive 11 passes broken up in 2022.
From a pass rush perspective, Utah State had 28 sacks last season. Their leading returning pass rusher is defensive tackle Hale Motu’apuaka, who had five sacks. At defensive end, the Aggies are looking at new faces trying to make an impact I Paul Fitzgerald and Enoka Migao.
The biggest question is the health of McNamara. How much can he do and how mobile will he be in the passing game? It seems like Iowa will try to keep him under wraps, if possible. But, they are going to have to throw the ball too. Perhaps they use more shotgun formations to limit his exposure. ADVANTAGE: SLIGHT TO IOWA.
Utah State rush offense vs. Iowa rush defense
The Aggies have a pretty solid ground game returning for the 2023 season. While leading rusher Calvin Tyler has moved on, they still return a talented young back in Robert Briggs. First, let’s look at their overall ground game where they rushed for 159 yards per game and 14 touchdowns. It is also worth noting that Utah State only returns one starter along the offensive line, so a lot of new faces.
Briggs is an interesting back. He rushed for 353 yards last season and averaged 4.8 yards per carry. He’s a Fred Russell size back at just 5-foot-6, but he’s very productive. The backup backs come from the junior college ranks in Davon Booth and Rahsul Faison.
The Iowa defense was once again very stout against the run. The Hawkeyes allowed just 94.9 yards per game on the ground and only 2.9 yards per carry. The Hawkeyes also tend to throttle teams from smaller conferences when it comes to the ground game.
It will be an adjustment this year with leading tacklers Jack Campbell and Seth Benson moving on due to graduation. That means the top tacklers for Iowa will likely be the linebacker duo of Jay Higgins and Nick Jackson. Higgins had 39 tackles last season. Jackson is a transfer from Virginia. He has three straight seasons with over 100 tackles and he was an All ACC performer. Sebastian Castro will handle the CASH position and is a solid tackler. He had 33 tackles last season. Cooper DeJean is an outstanding tackler at cornerback and on the back end Quinn Schulte is very solid. One player to watch will be Xavier Nwankpa, who has settled into the starting role at strong safety. ADVANTAGE: IOWA
Utah State pass offense vs. Iowa pass defense
Last year, Logan Bonner battled injuries and Cooper Legas stepped in to the starting spot at quarterback. He led the Aggie offense for ten games and will do the same again this year. Last year he completed 61.1% of his passes for 1499 yards and 11 touchdowns. It is worth noting that he also had 10 interceptions. That type of ratio against Iowa is playing with fire. Common thought on Legas is he’s more or less a game manager type quarterback.
Their leading returning receiver is Terrell Vaughn. He’s a classic slot receiver who had 56 grabs for 624 yards and five touchdowns. Tight end Josh Sterzer had 11 receptions for 129 yards and a touchdown. Tia Otto is also listed as a starter, but he only had one receptions last season. Two new players to watch this year for the Aggies are Jaylen Royals and Micah Davis. They are particularly high on the potential of Royals.
Iowa’s pass defense is among the best in the country. Last season, Iowa had 15 interceptions, which was down a bit from previous years. Leading the way in that category was Cooper DeJean, who had five, including three that he returned for a score. Xavier Nwankpa had one interception his first start in the Music City Bowl and returned it for 52 yards and a score. Jermari Harris is back at the other corner position and he finished strong in the 2021 season before missing the 2022 campaign due to injury.
From a pass rush perspective, Iowa had 35 sacks last season. Leading the returning pass rushers is Deontae Craig, who is at 6.5 last season. Joe Evans is back for his sixth year and he’s also at 6.5. Iowa also had 33 quarterback hurries last year as well. With Utah State bringing in four new starters, this is a tough matchup for them out of the gate. ADVANTAGE: IOWA
Special Teams
Tory Taylor continues to be one of, if not the top punter in college football. He is averaged 45.4 yards per punt and has dropped 38 of his 82 punts inside the 20 yard line last season. Drew Stevens had an outstanding freshman year. He has hit 16-18 field goals, including a 54 yarder against Northwestern and a game winner last week against Minnesota. Cooper DeJean is handling punt return duties. He is averaging 16.5 yards per return. Iowa has not published a kickoff return person, but Kaleb Johnson handled it last year.
The Aggies return their punter, Stephen Kotzanlee averaged 43.4 yards per punt. He had 24 of his 67 punts land inside the 20 yard line. They have a new field goal kicker in William Testa, who comes from the junior college ranks. Terrell Vaughn handles the kickoff return duties. He averaged 26.5 yards per return and had one taken back for a touchdown. Punt returns may be handled by Micah Davis, who is a transfer, or perhaps Cooper Jones. He averaged 6.6 yards per return. ADVANTAGE: IOWA
THE LAST CALL
It’s good to have Iowa football back and to be able to write about it for another season.
The Hawkeyes will open up against Utah State in what should be a steamy Kinnick Stadium with temps around 90 degrees on Saturday afternoon. Stay hydrated Iowa fans and enjoy what I think should be a good day for the Hawkeyes on the field.
The main storyline this week has been about Cade McNamara and if he will play. It appears that he will, at least on a limited basis. Perhaps more than that depending on how he is feeling out on the field. It’s clear that he wants to play. It’s also clear that the head coach who is making these decisions wants to be very careful with his quarterback.
Ideally, Iowa would like to jump out to a three plus score lead in the first half and then coast home with backup quarterback Deacon Hill running the offense. Of course, ideal isn’t always reality, but it likely will be on Saturday.
Iowa is catching Utah State at a good time. Two months from now, I think the Aggies could be a pretty decent squad. But, they had a lot of guys leave due to graduation and the transfer portal. The result is 59 new faces on their roster and that’s a lot of change. That’s also a lot of new starters getting their first opportunity against the Hawkeyes.
The other big question that we might get answered is was Kirk Ferentz right? Is Iowa’s offensive line better? While I still remain a bit skeptical and want to see it, Ferentz might have convinced me that the line is improved.
I also think Iowa’s defensive line is going to cause massive problems for Utah State. They have four new starters up front and that’s generally not a good thing against the Hawkeyes. I could see four or five sacks and a couple of interceptions in this one.
Bottom line, Iowa should do what they need to do. Keep McNamara healthy for next week in Ames and walk out of Kinnick Stadium with a 31-6 victory. My pick to click is Kaleb Johnson. He hits for over 150 yards and a pair of touchdowns.
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