Friday five: Bold predictions for Oregon’s 2023 season

College football season is officially here, folks.

The Week 0 slate of games begins in less than 24 hours. Throughout this season, I’ll be writing a weekly column each Friday that touches on five items that caught my attention throughout the week.

With Oregon’s season opener just over a week away, it made sense to start with some bold predictions for how the year will unfold. The entire ScoopDuck staff will be making traditional season predictions in the coming days, so I’ll hold off on those for now.

For the time being, here are some niche, stat-centric predictions for the Ducks’ 2023 campaign.

Oregon will not have a top-50 defense, but…

It won’t need to.

Last season, the Ducks ranked:

71st in total defense (381.2 yards per game)75th in scoring defense (27.42 points per game)102nd in passing defense (256.4 passing yards per game)123rd in third-down defense (46.8% conversion rate)

Even still, they found themselves in the College Football Playoff conversation late in the season because the offense was one of the best in the nation.

Oregon doesn’t need its defense to be perfect. But it does need it to be serviceable. Shoring up the third-down issues should go a long way toward accomplishing that.

While I’m not entirely sold on the Ducks’ defense this year, I do think Tosh Lupoi’s group has added enough quality players at key positions to take a significant step forward.

Jeffrey Bassa will lead Oregon in tackles

As a true sophomore last season, Jeffrey Bassa racked up 62 total tackles — the second-most among all Oregon defenders. Only Bennett Williams (72) had more.

Bassa added 18 pounds of muscle during the offseason and is now much better suited for his role in the Ducks’ front seven than he was at this time a year ago.

I don’t necessarily expect him to exceed the 100-tackle mark. During Dan Lanning’s three-year stint as Georgia’s defensive coordinator, no Bulldog player finished a season with more than 89 total tackles. As Lanning mentioned earlier this summer, “The day and age of having an old Mike linebacker that can go B-gap to B-gap or C-gap to C-gap, that’s not a reality anymore.”

But Bassa’s physical transformation and his experience in Oregon’s scheme should enable him to be a much more consistent tackler in 2023.

The Ducks will have a 1,000-yard receiver

This is probably the boldest prediction on my list.

It’s no secret that Oregon is loaded with pass-catching talent. Troy Franklin, Terrance Ferguson, Gary Bryant Jr., Kris Hutson, Tez Johnson, and Traeshon Holden are all going to get plenty of targets.

But, after a breakout sophomore season, I think Troy Franklin will up his production in 2023 and become the first Oregon receiver since 2018 to eclipse the 1,000-yard mark.

As receivers coach Junior Adams explained this offseason, Franklin has been working to become a “walking bucket” whenever opponents are in man coverage.

Look for him to exploit those instances on a more regular basis in 2023.

Bo Nix will pass for over 4,000 yards

This one is simple.

Last season, Bo Nix passed for 3,593 yards in 13 games. He did so despite playing on a bad ankle late in the year, and despite opening the season against a Georgia defense that was one of the best in the nation.

The only team on Oregon’s 2023 schedule that ranked among the nation’s top 50 teams in passing yards allowed last season is Stanford (40th).

Nix has a better group of receivers than he did a year ago. As long as he stays healthy, he has a very good shot of becoming the second 4,000-yard passer in program history.

Josh Conerly Jr. will be a first-team all-conference selection

Only two Oregon players received preseason first-team all-conference honors: Bucky Irving and Brandon Dorlus.

I think sophomore left tackle Josh Conerly Jr. belongs on that list, too.

Conerly has flown a bit under the radar this fall, partially because there has been so much chatter regarding the position battles along Oregon’s IOL. But I think he’s going to have a fantastic year and will emerge as one of the top players in a conference that is loaded with offensive line talent.

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