Four stats to show progress for South Carolina in 2023
Football season is back, and South Carolina is entering an integral one in year three under Shane Beamer.
The Gamecocks start their season Saturday night at North Carolina, trying to build on a very strong year two that ended with big regular season wins over Tennessee and Clemson.
But there are always areas to improve, and South Carolina has a few key ones to get better in. It’s hard sometimes to gauge progress outside of wins and points scored or allowed.
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So here are four stats to show progress in 2023 that don’t include wins and points.
40.1 percent success rate on first, second downs
Success rate is one of the better statistics to track in football, helping gauge how often a team is staying on schedule and doing what they need to do. Success is defined as gaining 50 percent of the needed yards to move the chains on first down, 70 percent on second down then converting on either third or fourth down.
Last season South Carolina had successful offensive plays just 40.1 percent of the time on first and second down. What does that signify? The Gamecocks struggled to stay on schedule and create manageable third-down opportunities.
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South Carolina’s average distance to go on third down last season was 7.7 yards, which isn’t sustainable in the long run for success. South Carolina averaged 6.7 yards per play on third down, a full yard less than what the offense needed to gain on average.
The Gamecocks were explosive last year offensively which covered some of that up, but a more efficient offense is the goal. And improving on first and second down is where that needs to start.
Offensive, defensive stuff rate
This ties directly into the rush offense and run defense this year. Last season South Carolina wasn’t good running the ball efficiently nor stopping the run on a consistent enough basis. A stuff is considered when a run play is stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage, and the numbers aren’t great for the Gamecocks.
Last season 19 percent of the team’s offensive rushes were considered stuffs while only 11 percent of the Gamecocks’ opponent runs were stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage.
That caused the offense to bog down and be put in unenviable down and distances while the opponents could stay largely on schedule and keep the chains moving and the South Carolina defense on the field.
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Those are things that Shane Beamer identified as things that needed to improve heading into 2023 and could go a long way in the ceilings for both the offense and defense this season.
Turnover margin
This is something Shane Beamer talked about at length all offseason in terms of South Carolina being great at taking the ball away from opponents but one of the worst at coughing it up.
The Gamecocks turned the ball over a league-worst 27 times last year and finished with a minus-4 overall margin (including the bowl) thanks to 23 takeaways. But defensive turnovers are more erratic year to year and South Carolina has to be better about protecting the ball.
The returns from training camp were positive, but now it’s about doing it when the lights are on and bullets are flying. If South Carolina can protect the ball, the offense has a chance to take a sizeable step forward.
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Here are the turnover margin splits from last regular season.
CategoryTakeawaysTurnoversMarginOverall2024-4vs. FBS1722-5vs. FBS at home711-4vs. FBS on road1011-1vs. SP top 2548-4vs. SP 26-5059-4vs. SP 50-plus853vs. SEC1016-6In SEC wins954In SEC losses111-10
Red zone defense
South Carolina ranked in the middle of the pack–tied for eighth–in overall red zone defense last season. Opponents–including the bowl game–scored 45 times on 54 trips (83.3 percent) but what was very high was the touchdown rate.
That went from 48.7 percent in Clayton White’s first season calling the defense to a whopping 66.7 percent in 2022. That’s the second-worst mark in the SEC ahead of just Auburn (67.4 percent). So while South Carolina was relatively average in stopping a score from happening, it didn’t force teams to settle for field goals a ton.
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In 11 regular season games against FBS opponents, teams scored on 83 percent of trips and averaged 5.1 points per trip. Here’s how that data shakes out overall over the regular season.
CategoryRed-zone scoring ratePoints per tripOverall83.75.1vs. FBS835.1vs. FBS at home84.04.6vs. FBS on road81.25.5vs. SP top 25 89.55.5vs. SP 26-5078.94.5vs. SP 50-plus77.85.4vs. SEC84.25.0In SEC wins93.05.1In SEC losses79.24.9
So South Carolina has to do better about limiting touchdowns in the red zone and force teams to kick field goals. In a season with the Gamecocks likely in a ton of close games, that could be the difference in a few wins.
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