Four potential game scenarios for Texas at Alabama
As Texas looks to reciprocate a heartbreaking loss from last year, let’s look through the potential scenarios and see if one outcome seems more likely than the others.
I’ve already picked Texas to win 27-24, so this piece will have the hue of confirmation bias to it.
Alabama wins in convincing fashion
This outcome is difficult for me to see. Yes, Alabama has the GOAT at head coach and home field advantage — undoubtedly two key factors — but I believe Texas has, at least somewhat, offsetting factors in team experience and leadership, as well as familiarity with Alabama. The confidence stemming from a physical, close game last year should be big. They know Alabama bleeds just like they do.
A blowout loss would require a total no-show, complete with turnovers, penalties, and a poor game plan, and in Year 3 with this team, I’m not buying that.
Schematically, the case for an Alabama blowout is even less likely.
Texas wins in convincing fashion
This is almost as difficult to see, though if you squint, you can see a blurry outcome in which Texas nails the offensive script and keeps the good times rolling. In the process, Texas forces Alabama out of its comfort zone to keep pace by passing. That likely wouldn’t play to Jalen Milroe’s strengths.
If Texas can get Alabama playing left handed, Texas has the slight chance to force a style that goes exactly counter to how Nick Saban wants this game to play out.
Alabama wins a close one
This outcome isn’t hard to see at all. In fact, most have this as the most likely outcome. This happens by Bama controlling the line of scrimmage, taking the air out of the ball, and playing a cleaner, more focused game than UT.
If it plays out this way, there isn’t ton of margin for error for Bama, but Saban will happily bet on his team in this scenario. After all, they had an extremely narrow path to victory last year but were still able to tight-rope on the road.
But Bryce Young isn’t walking through that door.
Texas wins a close one
If you looked at the chess board without knowing the players you might pick white to win this game. Sark has advantages to press, but just like in chess, there is an element of cat and mouse that brings in the importance of the player. Saban is the GOAT, part AI part Russian. Can Sark win the games within the game? That’s the big question and it extends to the offseason as each team prepped for the other months ago.
I like Texas’ D-line to feature as prominently as Bama’s. For all the talk about Texas’ O-line, Alabama has similar concerns. I like Sark going head to head versus Kevin Steele on game day. I like Pete Kwiatkowski going head to head with Tommy Rees, especially with Rees not having a Heisman caliber queen to utilize from corner to corner.
Speaking of corners, if Texas’ corners hold up on the outside against quality receivers (Bama’s receivers are better than last year) I believe UT’s defense will be the key to keeping the scoreboard manageable for the offense and ultimately the win.
I have a lot of faith in PK’s game plan.
Finally
I believe in Steve Sarkisian’s rebuild of the program. It’s been plainly obvious in the offseason coverage this year and even last. This is me predicting that Texas is ready to take the next step. It’s happening eventually, so why not today?
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