Five Most Likely to Commit to Oregon

Oregon hosted more than 40 visitors on campus this weekend. That mass of talent has not been regularly in Eugene under most Oregon coaches. However Mario Cristobal got things started in his tenure and it feels like Dan Lanning has taken it to another level in his second year.

The weekend started with a commitment from quarterback Luke Moga on Friday. And while it hasn’t really produced a lot more “Quack’s” at the moment, the seed has been planted with several. Something I noted last week, with the caliber of recruit Oregon brought in, the likelihood of a bunch of commits goes down. The higher ranked players often times take a little more time with decisions.

Additionally I don’t feel as though this staff is pushing extremely hard for early commitments at this time. Which in today’s recruiting isn’t really a bad thing.

Now with that all said, I feel there is a core group of guys the Ducks put themselves in great shape for. Meaning if a commitment were to happen today, the Ducks might be the choice. But of course several of my below choices could wait until August to announce and a lot can happen between now and then.

With that said, here are my five picks for the most likely to commit to Oregon, eventually, from this visitor list.

Quarterback — Michael Van Buren

Likelihood: 75%

Yes, even with Moga committed I think Oregon is the team to beat for Van Buren. I know he left without making a commitment of his own, but I never really sensed he was quite ready. In his last update, MVB hinted at more of a July decision timeline, which I do think is farther out than it will actually happen. It wouldn’t surprise me if MVB is committed by the end of May and right now I like Oregon here.

Offensive Tackle — Brandon Baker

Likelihood: 65%

I’ve always felt like Baker would be a Duck. In fact I’ve had an Oregon prediction logged since late October. Now at that time, I thought he might have committed early in the 2023 year. But Adrian Klemm left and that pushed things back. No slight to A’lique Terry, the two just needed some time to develop a relationship. I think this weekend went a long ways towards Oregon’s chances with Baker and it won’t surprise me to see him on the commit list probably before July.

Linebacker — Kamar Mothudi

Likelihood: 85%

I think Mothudi wants to take a few more visits and just make sure about his decision. But he could get those trips in and be ready to commit by June if all goes well. Right now I’m near certain Oregon leads and that was ahead of this visit, which only helped. This is one I thought might commit this weekend but I think the staff urged him to take whatever trips he wants to take first and make sure he’s ready. I really like Oregon here.

Linebacker — Justin Williams

Likelihood: 70%

I get the sense every time Williams visits Oregon, he wants to commit. And while it’s great Oregon is in that position, at some point you have to wonder a little about the delay in a decision. But Williams is an elite linebacker with every choice in the country. So it’s not uncommon for a player his caliber to wait. I do know that Bama and Georgia are in the thick of this one and that means Oregon has to work over time here. I could see him taking one last visit to each before deciding, but again after this trip, today, I like where Oregon sits.

Cornerback — Dakoda Fields

Likelihood: 75%

No real surprise here and I think headed into this visit Oregon led. Then the trip happened and that really only strengthened where Oregon stands. Demetrice Martin has done a terrific job here with Fields and the relationships that have Oregon as his top choice today. Will he commit soon? I think there is some back and forth on that so we’ll see. But it’s going to be hard for other schools to pull him away and I still like my Oregon pick for Fields.

Quarterback (2025) — Akili Smith Jr.

Likelihood: 85%

I mean no real surprise here, although this is a bonus pick. Oregon has done everything right here so far. Getting on Akili Smith Jr early and not just assuming he’ll be a Duck. Will Stein has done a great job with the recruit and his father, the former Oregon quarterback. I do think Akili Smith will take a few more visits. But I also think, by contrast, he’ll end up committing pretty early in the 2025 cycle, likely later this Summer.

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