Final Lines: Trust Jayden Daniels to deliver for LSU vs. Florida State
Welcome to Final Lines, my weekly betting article on the upcoming LSU football game. If you’re new, welcome, if you were here last year, let’s keep it rolling!
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LSU and Florida State have been the premier week 1 game for the entire offseason. Casuals and sharps across the country have been eying this game as one to watch and as a result, there’s been incredible amounts of analysis and picks on the game. Everyone has an opinion for how it’s going to shake out, so we’ll have to see how it plays out on Sunday.
Last year, I went 7-5 in my 12 betting picks for LSU games. Every game I felt like I had a handle on something in particular that I could rely on entering the game. This year, we’ll have to see what trends emerge and how LSU looks on the field. Even though there are fewer questions about the Tigers, the market is also very high on them, making it more challenging to find the edge.
Let’s get into my analysis and my betting pick of the week.
Spread
LSU is currently favored by -2/-2.5 depending on the book. The Tigers have been favored for months now and that won’t change by Sunday night. There’s a comfort with Brian Kelly as the head coach, Jayden Daniels at quarterback, and one of the best defensive players in the country in Harold Perkins leading the way that this is a team ready to take the next step forward.
Obviously, Florida State is an incredibly talented team as well, but there are holes in their roster, just like there are holes in LSU’s. I’ve looked at numbers, watched tape, and talked with players and coaches in press conferences and it’s clear everyone understands the challenge ahead. I can see this game going either way. I’m staying away from the spread.
SP+ projection: LSU by 4.4, FPI projection: LSU by 6.2, Sportsline Model: FSU 26-25
Total
The number has fluctuated a bit this week, rising up from 55.5 to 58.5 with the news Maason Smith would not be playing and then settling now at 56.5. Seemingly everyone I’ve talked to is looking at the over in this game and it’s easy to see why. Both offenses are incredibly polished with ample returning talent at key positions, both have dynamic playmakers, both offensive lines should be able to neutralize the talent on the opposing defensive line. Still, it’s hard for me to take an over 56.5 at this point in the 2023 season when we’ve seen the under hit in 12 out of 18 games so far this year. The new clock rule paired with what feels like a slower pace to these games has me hesitant to touch an over.
Furthermore, there’s a real chance these quarterbacks struggle to be as explosive as they want to be. Both defenses are looking to take away the big play and I can easily see this game turning into a more physical – run first game. Florida State loves running with Trey Benson and can neutralize the talented pass rushers LSU has, while LSU wants to attack the Seminoles’ linebackers and safeties with the run game. I can see it going either way. I’m not touching the total either.
Pick of the Week: Jayden Daniels rushing touchdowns Over .5 (-106)
Daniels’ rushing ability has been talked about his entire career and last year was the peak of showing how dynamic he is as a rusher with 885 yards and 11 rushing touchdowns in 14 games. The Tigers scored touchdowns on 72 percent of their redzone trips and broke the school record for rushing touchdowns in a season as a team and a large part was because of Daniels.
There should be plenty of changes with this LSU team, but Daniels finishing off drives with his legs won’t be one. His ability to pull the ball and keep it to the endzone. Anything inside the 10 is in range for Daniels to score with his legs, especially without John Emery playing. Noah Cain could steal a score from Daniels, but ultimately, Daniels’ legs are going to be too valuable to this offense for him to not get in the endzone at least once in this game.
I also don’t trust the linebackers for Florida State to contain him properly. I looked at the over in Daniels rushing yards at 46.5, but was worried that sacks could potentially negate too many yards so I’ll make it easy. Daniels has found the endzone 17 times in his last 27 games and if you look at the games where he didn’t have a rushing touchdown, the Tigers were playing from behind or hardly had scoring opportunities (Florida State, Tennessee, Arkansas, A&M, Georgia). I expect the offense to be comfortable and for multiple trips inside the 10.
*** One play I heavily considered was Malik Nabers over 65.5 receiving yards, however if he doesn’t get an explosive 20+yard reception in this game it could be tough because of how much attention is on him. I still expect Nabers to have an awesome game. I like this play as well.
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