FILM ANALYSIS: How Texas A&M offense will present challenge for Miami Hurricanes, and why it’s on Lance Guidry to stop it
The Miami Hurricanes faced a relatively easy Game 1 opponent in Miami (Ohio), winning in a blowout, and Texas A&M had the same result with its home opener vs. New Mexico – a 52-10 victory (although it was 14-7 Texas A&M midway through the second quarter).
Regardless of the level of opponent, certain things can be gleaned from the opening games based on schemes and talent level. We’ve been breaking down film of Miami already this week, looking at everything from Lance Guidry’s system and third down attack to what happened in the UM run game’s explosive plays.
Today it’s time for a look at what Texas A&M showed in its first game … and which of those areas can cause issues for Miami on Saturday or perhaps be exploited.
We start with the offense.
MIAMI MUST COUNTER CONNER WEIGMAN’S ACCURACY AND ESCAPABILITY
Miami wasn’t tested much by Miami (Ohio) QB Brett Gabbert or his receiving corps. But Weigman and the A&M offense are a whole different animal. If Canes fans were hoping for some first game hiccups from Weigman, it didn’t happen. Before Max Johnson took over for garbage time in the fourth quarter, Weigman hit on 18 of 23 passes for 236 yards with five touchdowns. He also showed his ability to run with a 17-yard scramble when no one came open (see below clip).
A key for Guidry, no doubt, will be to get pressure all around Weigman. But the Texas A&M offensive line looked pretty stout and didn’t give up a sack till the third quarter – that was despite New Mexico often bringing pressure with blitzes and stacking the line (the Lobos run a base 3-3-5 defense but brought pressure from several other players almost every snap).
Some of the more notable plays by Weigman:
* Facing a third-and-nine in the face of an all-out blitz, a defender comes free and is on Weigman as he throws off his back foot … the QB still puts touch on the ball and connects for the first down (video below).
* Weigman’s second TD, a 34-yard pass to Thomas, saw the Lobos rush four and the QB had plenty of time to survey the field and find Noah Thomas one-on-one down the middle.
* With 35 seconds left in the first half the Aggies had the ball in a first-and-20 at their own 32 leading 35-7. So what did the team do? Well, put Weigman to work. He hit Evan Stewart for 22 yards two plays later with the Lobos essentially in a prevent, hit Stewart for another 12 yards and then moved the ball to the UNM 30 with a short pass to Ainias Smith. The field goal was blocked, but that drive shows the confidence and aggressiveness of this passing attack.
* In the third quarter, on a third and goal from the eight, Weigman found Stewart for the TD. On that play the Lobos rushed six initially, with two dropping off into zone after an initial charge upfield. Weigman wasn’t fooled, got enough protection to set his feet and deliver a perfect over-the-shoulder pass in the left side of the end zone with the defender trailing by a step.
* Texas A&M used jumbo sets on short yardage runs and often had a tight end attached to the line who could either block or go out for a pass. And the running back was effective helping in pass protection. So Weigman often had time to find men downfield, something that Miami will need to change.
THE BOBBY PETRINO VS. LANCE GUIDRY CHESS MATCH
Petrino is one of the finest offensive minds in the nation, and he will certainly have a plan to try and counter how Guidry loves to stack the line of scrimmage and then drop defensive ends and linebackers into coverage while blitzing a corner, etc. With that said, here are some of the things we saw Petrino do on Saturday with his talent:
* Against obvious pressure the Aggies were often getting the ball out quickly to beat it. And that’s dangerous for an opponent when it’s one on one with a speedy playmaking receiver having the ball in his hands. But there also were times the Lobos brought pressure and Petrino’s OL/backs were able to pick it up … resulting in longer downfield throws like the game’s first TD catch below.
* Petrino’s attack vs. New Mexico saw him do a variety of things from jumbo sets on second-and-short plays, two tight ends, one tight end, QB in shotgun or under center, two backs, one back, spreading things out. He threw a bit of everything in there, so it’ll be a lot the Canes have to be prepared for. The bottom line is in the pass game he was looking to get his receivers on man-on-man coverage and then toss it up to them to make a play … and in the run game he utilized the backs’ speed and trusted the tackles/tight ends blocking to get around the outside (15 runs were outside the tackles, nine inside them). There were five runs of 10-plus yards to the edges, with two 10-plus runs inside the tackles. So Miami setting the edge on defense is going to be of huge importance in this game.
* On a fourth and one ahead 7-0 at the end of the first quarter, Petrino went for it and in a jumbo set with the QB under center with a fullback ahead of the tailback ran behind the right guard with 210-pound Le’Veon Moss. The result? He just barely picked up the first down. This is a team that will try to bully you at times and also finesse you in other moments.
* Texas A&M threw the ball 34 times and had the running backs carry it 24 times on Saturday even in the blowout win, so Guidry should probably expect a pass-heavy attack. But the Aggies did average 4.6 yards per carry and Guidry stresses he wants to stop the run first. It would not be a surprise if A&M winds up passing to set up the run in this game if Guidry continues to stack the box and have his linebackers in read and react mode within two or three yards of the line of scrimmage. Don’t be surprised if the Aggies take numerous shots deep down the field too, with Guidry basically daring offenses to do that from what we’ve seen in the past as well as in Miami’s opener. When you see what Weigman did and how the offense looked in the opener, it’ll be on Guidry to find some new ways to confuse the QB and pressure him … while making sure to remain sound against the run.
* One of Petrino’s better designed runs is below, which was sprung out of a two-tight end look with the tight end to the right pulling left and making a key block … with the other tight end helping take the safety out of the play to spring Amari Daniels loose. Daniels is patient and waits for the tight ends to secure their blocks before scampering to open territory (see below).
This drive, by the way, ended with a third-and-goal from the one that saw a jumbo look with a fullback … and ended with Le’Veon Moss easily running into the end zone behind the right guard.
This Petrino vs. Guidry chess match will be ongoing throughout the game with each trying to figure out what the other is trying to accomplish on a given set of downs … and then call plays to stop it.
CAN THE MIAMI CORNERS HOLD UP ONE-ON-ONE?
Lance Guidry loves to put his corners on an island in order to dial up pressure in the offensive backfield. That works best against a QB that isn’t accurate, doesn’t have speedy playmaking receivers and/or has a spotty OL. Texas A&M, though, has an accurate QB, explosive playmakers and the OL looked on point in the opener. And in Game 1 you saw the kind of damage WRs Evan Stewart (freshman All-American last year) and Noah Thomas (6-6, 200 pound sophomore) can do. Thomas started four games last year as a freshman but began this season with a bang – he had six catches for 74 yards and used his size as a red zone target with three TDs. Stewart? He had eight receptions for 115 yards and two TDs. Miami will need a great game plan for them as well as Ainias Smith (injured last year, had 564 yards in 2020 and 509 in 2021). This receiving corps is as talented as Miami will face all year.
Some specific areas Guidry will need to solve:
* Texas A&M’s play-action game was on point, with New Mexico often pressing up on the fake and having the DL hesitate before resuming the attack to the QB. That split-second of extra time can be costly, as you see below in the Aggies’ TD to Stewart that began the second quarter on Saturday.
* Miami’s DBs will be challenged in a lot of one-on-one coverage, and the Aggies’ receivers showed in the opener they can make the tough catches even with a man just off their shoulder (see below).
* On a TD catch just before the half, Weigman used play action from under center to slow down the pass rush, then had Thomas come back for an underthrown ball in the end zone with the defender a step too slow to the ball.
It’s obvious Miami’s corners have a huge test upcoming on Saturday.
To sum it all up, there are some big areas of concern that Texas A&M’s offense will pose for the Miami Hurricanes, but there can be some answers if Guidry can scheme it up right.
In particular the passing game is a major challenge, but the rushing attack didn’t appear overly powerful in the opener. So make the Aggies one-dimensional and confuse Weigman every now and then … that could be just enough to help give Miami a major victory.
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