ESPN FPI game-by-game predictions for Notre Dame in 2023

Year 2 of the Marcus Freeman era is shaping up to be an interesting one for Notre Dame. The Fighting Irish saw multiple personnel changes both on Freeman’s staff and on the field, and ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) provides an interesting outlook for Notre Dame in 2023.

Led by new quarterback Sam Hartman — the No. 2-ranked player to enter the transfer portal, according to the On3 Transfer Portal Rankings — the Fighting Irish will look to build on last year’s 9-4 record, which culminated with a Gator Bowl victory. ESPN’s FPI projects the Fighting Irish to have a similar mark this time around, but there are opportunities to make some noise.

It all starts in Week 0 when Notre Dame plays in the first game of the college football season.

Aug. 26: Notre Dame vs Navy (in Dublin) — 95.3% chance of win

Photo by Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images

Week 0 will start as it did last year with a game in Dublin, Ireland. This time around, the Fighting Irish will be taking on Navy in the game — the 93rd meeting between the two teams. Notre Dame has won the last five matchups against the Midshipmen, including last year’s 35-32 victory.

Navy has undergone major changes over the offseason as head coach Ken Niumatalolo was let go after the Army-Navy game and Brian Newberry is now in. The Midshipmen went 4-8 last year, including a 4-4 record in American Athletic Conference play.

Sept. 2: Notre Dame vs Middle Tennessee State — 99% chance of win

This year will mark the first-ever matchup between Notre Dame and Middle Tennessee State. The Blue Raiders will make the trip to South Bend for the Week 1 showdown as the Fighting Irish return stateside.

Last year, Middle Tennessee State went 8-5 overall and 4-4 in Conference USA action. Rick Stockstill has taken the program to six bowl games over the last eight years, including last year’s Hawaii Bowl win over San Diego State.

Sept. 9: Notre Dame at NC State — 68.2% chance of win

An ACC opponent awaits Notre Dame in Week 2 as the Fighting Irish head to Raleigh to take on NC State. The Wolfpack lost starting quarterback Devin Leary to the transfer portal, but added former Virginia quarterback Brennan Amstrong to help replace him.

Notre Dame and NC State haven’t faced each other since 2017 when the Fighting Irish, led by Brandon Wimbush, handled the Wolfpack 35-14 in South Bend. ESPN’s FPI likes their chances of picking up a second victory.

Sept. 16: Notre Dame vs Central Michigan — 96.3% chance of win

John Mersits | USA TODAY NETWORK

Week 3 will mark the second time in three games Notre Dame will face a new opponent. Central Michigan has never played the Fighting Irish before, but that will change when head to South Bend.

The Chippewas are coming off a 4-8 record in 2022, but have finished atop the MAC West twice under Jim McElwain’s leadership. That includes tying for first place in the division in 2021 en route to a Sun Bowl appearance. However, ESPN’s FPI projects Notre Dame to have the upper hand heading into a pivotal matchup the following week.

Sept. 23: Notre Dame vs Ohio State — 23.9% chance of win

Notre Dame started out hot against Ohio State last year, but struggled in the second half en route to the 21-10 loss to CJ Stroud and the Buckeyes. This season, the game will be on Notre Dame’s home turf — but ESPN’s FPI still thinks Ohio State will once again get the victory.

The Buckeyes lost Stroud to the NFL and are in the midst of a quarterback competition between Kyle McCord and Devin Brown. They were picked second in the Big Ten East in the Big Ten preseason media poll as they look for another trip to the College Football Playoff.

Sept. 30: Notre Dame at Duke — 79% chance of win

Notre Dame goes back on the road to end September when it heads to Durham to square off against Duke. The two teams haven’t played since 2020 when the Fighting Irish defeated the Blue Devils 27-13.

Duke is getting ready for the second year under Mike Elko and he did a great job turning the program around, taking the Blue Devils to a 9-4 record and a Military Bowl victory over UCF in his first season at the helm. That came after a 3-9 record in what turned out to be David Cutcliffe’s final go-round.

Oct. 7: Notre Dame at Louisville — 75.6% chance of win

To start the month of October, Notre Dame heads back on the road to take on a new-look Louisville team. Now coached by former Cardinals star Jeff Brohm, UL was one of the big winners in the portal and came in at No. 1 in the On3 College Football Team Transfer Portal Rankings.

It’s been three years since the Fighting Irish and Cardinals faced off. Notre Dame won that game 12-7 during the COVID-impacted 2020 season and has victories in the last two games against Louisville. ESPN’s FPI projects the Fighting Irish have a strong chance of a third consecutive win.

Oct. 14: Notre Dame vs USC — 57.7% chance of win

Notre Dame has another tough test right before the bye week when Caleb Williams and USC arrive at Notre Dame Stadium. The Trojans’ 38-27 victory in 2022 was their first over the Fighting Irish in 2022 as Williams virtually locked up the Heisman Trophy with his performance.

However, ESPN’s FPI projects Notre Dame could have a chance to play spoiler against USC as it tries to reach the College Football Playoff. The Fighting Irish are a slight favorite in the game, which could be one of the more intriguing of the college football season.

Oct. 28: Notre Dame vs Pitt — 82.3% chance of win

Notre Dame wide receiver Jaden Greathouse. (Photo by Greg Swiercz / USA TODAY NETWORK)

Out of the off week, Notre Dame welcomes Pitt to South Bend for their first matchup since 2020. The Fighting Irish won that game with ease, 45-3, as they made a run to the CFP.

Pitt is coming off a 9-4 record in 2022, including a 5-3 record in ACC play. The Panthers were picked in the middle of the pack in the ACC this year, tying for sixth with Duke in the ACC preseason poll.

Nov. 4: Notre Dame at Clemson — 38.6% chance of win

Marcus Freeman of Notre Dame and Dabo Swinney of Clemson. (Michael Reaves/Getty Images)

In another game with possible CFP implications, Notre Dame and Clemson will square off for the second straight year. Last season, it was the Fighting Irish who came out on top, upsetting the then-No. 4-ranked Tigers 35-14 to virtually knock them out of the Playoff race.

ESPN’s FPI, however, gives Clemson a heavy chance of getting a victory over Notre Dame. The game is one many fans around the game could have circled as the final stretch of the season heats up.

Nov. 18: Notre Dame vs Wake Forest — 86.2% chance of win

Notre Dame quarterback Sam Hartman. (Quinn Harris | Getty Images)

After Notre Dame’s second bye week, the Fighting Irish will play in a game filled with storylines. Hartman will square off against his former team as Wake Forest comes to town.

His accomplishments with the Demon Deacons speak for themselves. In four years with the program, he set the ACC’s all-time passing touchdowns record before entering the portal and joining the Fighting Irish. ESPN’s FPI predicts Hartman gets the better of his former teammates and Notre Dame could cruise to a victory.

Nov. 25: Notre Dame at Stanford — 85.7% chance of win

The Stanford game is one Freeman — not to mention Notre Dame fans — probably want back from last year. The Cardinal underwent a coaching change, though, and are picked to finish last in the Pac-12 this year.

Last season, Stanford pulled off a 16-14 victory over Notre Dame in South Bend as part of a rough start to the year for Freeman’s group. The Fighting Irish will be out for revenge, and ESPN’s FPI has them as a hefty favorite in the final regular-season matchup.

ESPN’s FPI final record projection for Notre Dame — 8.9-3.1

Last year, Notre Dame went 8-3 in Freeman’s first regular season as a head coach. ESPN’s FPI projects a similar mark this year with a possible nine-win season in the cards.

Hartman isn’t the only major change on offense for the Fighting Irish. Gerad Parker is now in as offensive coordinator after Tommy Rees left for Alabama. He’ll have plenty of talent under center to work with, and that’s going to be a key storyline for Notre Dame this season.

There will also be opportunities for Notre Dame to get some big victories this season and quite possibly make it back to the CFP in the last year of the four-team format.

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