ESPN betting analyst explains why Garrett Nussmeier is a sleeper Heisman Trophy pick

Preseason Heisman Trophy lists have been topped by names like Dillon Gabriel, Carson Beck and Quinn Ewers. Some betting analysts don’t agree.

For ESPNBet’s Joe Fortenbaugh, he’s thinking outside the box for a sleeper pick ahead of the 2024 regular season. He’d put his money on LSU‘s Garrett Nussmeier to win it at 22-1 (eighth best) — which would be a second-straight trophy for the LSU Tigers.

“I’m not a huge fan of betting into this market before the season starts,” he said. “I’d rather wait, but A, I think there’s an opportunity here, given the fact that we saw what Brian Kelly’s offense did last year for Jayden Daniels who won the Heisman Trophy. B, look at Nussmeier’s schedule. He’s going to open the season in a standalone game in Las Vegas against USC. That defense was abysmal last year. The total in that game is 62.5. If LSU and Nussmeier light up the Trojans in that game, that price is going to drop in Week 1.”

If you don’t believe Fortenbaugh, just ask Nussmeier’s center, Will Campbell, who has gotten to know the new Tigers’ QB1 very well this offseason, and recently spoke on Nussmeier’s strengths. He’s excited for his friend to get his opportunity and believes he’ll “light the SEC up,” in 2024.

Fans were given a sneak preview at what Nussmeier has to offer as a full-time starter during the ReliaQuest Bowl vs. Wisconsin. It’s safe to say there was no drop-off of production after Daniels (who opted out of the game) handed the reigns to Nussmeier for the 35-31 victory.

During the game, Nussmeier completed 31 of his 45 passes for 395 yards, three touchdowns and an interception. The Tigers trailed the Badgers by two scores early in the matchup, but Nussmeier helped lead LSU to overcome the deficit and outscored the Badgers 35-17 over the final three quarters. He even led a 98-yard game-winning drive to give the Tigers their 10th win of the season. Before that game, he had just 198 passing yards and a touchdown to his credit on the season.

In total, he’s spent three seasons in Baton Rouge. During that time Nussmeier has thrown for 1,790 yards, 11 touchdowns and 7 interceptions while seeing time sparingly and during blowouts.

Backing up the Heisman Trophy winner last year, Nussmeier has seen what it takes to win the top individual prize in college football. While the betting odds may not be in his favor, the fourth-year Louisiana native will look to prove his doubters wrong when the Tigers begin their 2024 season against USC on Sept. 1.

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