Early Scouting Report: Vanderbilt Commodores
We are less than two months away from the Kentucky football team reporting to campus for the beginning of fall training camp. Over the next few weeks at KSR+, we will start getting ready for the schedule.
For the seventh year in a row, I will be providing weekly scouting reports on Thursday for Kentucky’s upcoming opponent that will include an in-depth look at personnel, advanced stats, scheme background, betting information, series history, program profile, and keys to victory. That is just around the corner.
But it’s never too early to start getting some homework done. We are now pumping out some early scouting reports as we research and take a closer look at the foes on Kentucky’s schedule. Next up is a program trying to climb out of the cellar.
Early Scouting Report: Southern Miss
Early Scouting Report: South Carolina
Early Scouting Report: Georgia
Early Scouting Report: Ole Miss
State of the Program
Notre Dame defensive coordinator Clark Lea returned to his alma mater following the 2020 season to begin a long rebuild at Vanderbilt. The former assistant coach at UCLA and Wake Forest knew there was a tall task awaiting in Nashville. Lea inherited a program that had one long losing streak to get rid of.
That losing streak finally got snapped in 2022.
Vandy stunned Kentucky at Kroger Field as a 17-point underdog to record the program’s first SEC road win since 2018. One week later, Vandy knocked off Florida at home for the program’s first SEC home win since 2019 as a 14-point underdog. That was Vanderbilt’s first victory over the Gators in Nashville since 1988. Those two victories created a lot of positive momentum for the program.
That momentum evaporated in 2023.
Vandy finished 2-10 and posted the program’s third winless SEC season in four years. The Commodores have not won more than two SEC games since 2018. Lea’s program is having a hard time finding its footing. The head coach decided to make massive changes in the offseason by leaning into the portal, hiring a third offensive coordinator in four years, and taking control of the defense. Only time will tell if those moves will pay off but the deck seems stacked against Vanderbilt.
Transfer Portal Recap
Vanderbilt was another SEC program that saw over 20 players leave the program and that is something that will always be difficult for this high-end academic institution to overcome. However, Clark Lea’s staff tried to find answers by reeling in a huge portal class with over 20 additions.
That was needed after some serious star power was lost.
Vandy saw eight of 17 players who played 200-plus snaps on offense leave the program via the transfer. Quarterbacks Ken Seals (TCU) and AJ Swann (LSU) will be power conference backups this season. Wideouts Jayden McGowan (Boston College), London Humphreys (Georgia), and Will Sheppard (Colorado) will each have big roles at their new schools. The defense also had some losses with top defensive lineman Nate Clifton transferring to USC and starting linebacker Ethan Barr ultimately flipping his transfer commitment from Washington to UCF.
In the portal, Vandy reeled in five New Mexico State commits (more on this later) and a couple of receivers. The Commodores signed some needed offensive line help, found a new punter, and a couple of potential starters in the secondary.
Lea’s program lost some talented players but they were able to find replacements. Many of the additions have multiple years of eligibility remaining. Player development will still need to happen over numerous years for this program to find success.
Vanderbilt Offense
After a second-year resurgence under Joey Lynch where Vandy found some success on the ground with Mike Wright at quarterback and Ray Davis at tailback, things reverted for the Commodores in 2023. This program could not take advantage of some talent at wide receiver and an early season injury at quarterback put the program into a tailspin.
Scoring: 22.8 (No. 103 overall)
Points Per Drive: 1.65 (No. 105 overall)
Yards Per Play: 5.18 (No. 102 overall)
Yards Per Rush: 3.28 (No. 122 overall)
Yards Per Pass: 6.9 (No. 86 overall)
Snaps Per Game: 63.5 (No. 118 overall)
Pass Play Percentage: 55.16% (No. 23 overall)
20+ yard plays: 55 (No. 73 overall)
Red Zone TD Percentage: 64.71% (No. 39 overall)
After becoming a run-heavy team with Wright and Davis in the lineup, Vandy switched to a pass-heavy attack with AJ Swann and Ken Seals. The results weren’t pretty. After another 2-10 season, Clark Lea decided to make a switch and is bringing the New Mexico State offense to the West End.
Former New Mexico State head coach Jerry Kill is now Vanderbilt’s senior offensive advisor. NMSU offensive coordinator Tim Beck will be calling plays for the Commodores. Diego Pavia (6-0, 200, RSr.) is expected to be Vandy’s starting quarterback after starring in the C-USA.
Kill and Beck’s offense played at a slow tempo but ranked No. 12 in success rate and No. 33 in EPA/play last season. Most importantly, New Mexico State finished No. 5 in rushing success rate rolling up just under 200 yards per game with Pavia leading the way with 1,058 non-sack rushing yards and seven touchdowns.
Pavia threw for 2,973 yards on 8.1 yards per attempt with a 60.4 percent completion rate, 26 touchdowns, and nine interceptions. The former junior college transfer is an exciting talent who will lead a new-look offense. To provide depth, Vandy also added Utah transfer Nate Johnson (6-1, 196, RSo.) who rushed for 300 non-sack yards and four touchdowns last year in the Pac-12. Vandy is all-in on the QB run game.
The Commodores added a pair of New Mexico State tailback transfers to the roster and they’ll supplement a room that returns an intriguing young talent. Sedrick Alexander (5-9, 199, So.) rushed for 371 yards as a true freshman and will have a big role in year two.
There was massive turnover at wide receiver with the top three targets leaving the program via the transfer portal. Junior Sherrill (5-11, 172, So.) returns after reeling in 20 receptions for 293 yards. Quincy Skinner Jr. (6-2, 205, Sr.) has recorded 37 receptions over the last two seasons and will need to up his production in year four. Texas Tech transfer Loic Fouonji (6-4, 215, Sr.), and will bring size and experience. The Big 12 transfer recorded 34 receptions for 451 yards last season and could become the Will Sheppard replacement in Vanderbilt’s offense this season.
At tight end, New Mexico State transfer Eli Stowers (6-4, 225, RJr.) will join his former New Mexico State coaches and teammates in Nashville. After beginning his career as a quarterback at Texas A&M, Stowers recorded 35 receptions for 366 yards while chipping in over 100 rushing yards. The flex tight end and wildcat quarterback is a versatile piece that will have a role in this offense.
In the trenches, Vanderbilt returns three starters who all played 500-plus snaps last season. The Commodores added Mississippi State transfer Steven Losoya (6-3, 309, Super) who has played over 2,400 career snaps spending time at center and guard. Three additional transfers were added to compete for starting spots. Vandy has improved on paper but this still projects as one of the worst offensive lines in the SEC.
Vanderbilt Defense
Vandy suffered a tough break when the Baltimore Ravens hired away Mike Macdonald from Michigan leading to Jim Harbaugh bringing Jesse Minter to Ann Arbor. Minter went one-and-done on the West End and won a national championship two years later. Macdonald is now the Seattle Seahawks head coach and Minter is the Los Angeles Chargers defensive coordinator. Clark Lea is now on this third defensive play-caller in four years.
Part of the reason Vandy hired Jerry Kill was for him to oversee the offense so Lea could spend much of his time with the defense. The former Notre Dame defensive coordinator will call plays for the first time since 2020 this fall.
There is much room for improvement.
Scoring: 36.2 (No. 129 overall)
Points Per Drive: 3.03 (No. 125 overall)
Yards Per Play: 6.55 (No. 124 overall)
Yards Per Rush: 5.09 (No. 123 overall)
Yards Per Pass: 8.0 (No. 109 overall)
Tackles For Loss Per Game: 5.50 (No. 77 overall)
Passes Defended Per Game: 3.83 (No. 88 overall)
20+ Yard Plays: 66 (No. 108 overall)
Red Zone TD Percentage: 56.60% (No. 49 overall)
Takeaways: 16 (No. 86 overall)
Lea returns 16 of 22 players who played 200-plus snaps last season and gets his top two players back. The secondary is in a position to become a team strength.
CJ Taylor (6-1, 201, Sr.) is one of the best returning defensive players in the SEC after recording 55 tackles, 7.5 tackles for loss, two interceptions, and two forced fumbles in nine games last season. Taylor played a hybrid linebacker/nickel position last year and is switching to free safety this fall. The former low three-star recruit is a very good player and he will be joined by another good safety in the starting lineup.
De’Rickey Wright (6-4, 217, RSr.) entered the transfer portal after the season and committed to Texas A&M before backing off that commitment and returning for his fifth season at Vandy. Wright recorded 46 tackles and two interceptions in 10 games last season. The defensive back has been an excellent havoc creator the last two years with three forced fumbles, five interceptions, seven tackles for loss, and 12 pass breakups. Vandy quietly has an excellent duo at safety.
Martel Hight (6-0, 175, So.) was a good high school recruiting win who flashed as a true freshman at cornerback. TCU transfer Randon Fontenette (6-3, 215, So.) comes over after one year in the Big 12 where he recorded 16 tackles, and will take over the hybrid Sam/Nickel spot in this 4-2-5 scheme. Wyoming transfer Kolbey Taylor (6-3, 185, RJr.) comes in after recording 29 tackles and seven pass breakups in 536 snaps in the Mountain West. The Texas high school product should begin the season as a starter at cornerback.
Lea has some intriguing talent in the secondary.
At off-ball linebacker, Langston Patterson (6-1, 230, Jr.) recorded 74 tackles and eight tackles for loss in 11 games last season. The former high three-star recruit out of Nashville owned a solid missed tackle rate (12.7%), according to PFF data. The Nashville native was very productive when in the lineup. Patterson could become a sneaky All-SEC contender this fall.
On the defensive line, Vandy saw its best player (Nate Clifton) leave for USC but returns four players who played 250-plus snaps last season and added Purdue transfer Khordae Sydnor (6-4, 262, RJr.). The defensive front lacks top-end talent but should have some depth.
There are some line of scrimmage concerns but Vandy has some intriguing talent in the back seven. With Lea taking over the defense, we should see some pass defense improvement but stopping the run could be very difficult for this group.
Vanderbilt Outlook
The trend lines are not favorable for Clark Lea heading into year four. Vanderbilt is 9-27 overall and only has two wins against power conference competition since the 42-year-old returned home to his alma mater. The Commodores are 3-38 in conference play since making the Texas Bowl in 2018. Things are ugly on the West End.
With massive stadium renovations on the way, there will be some pressure to deliver a better product after a big financial commitment from the university. It is difficult to see that coming this season with home games against Virginia Tech, Alabama, Texas, South Carolina, and Tennessee.
Vandy simply needs Diego Pavia and the new offensive scheme to shine immediately. The Commodores must be able to run the ball better and must score more points. If we do not see a big jump from the offense then another two or three win season with zero power conference wins could be the result.
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