Early Scouting Report: Louisville Cardinals

We have reached training camp season in college football. The 2023 season is right around the corner.

Over the next few weeks at KSR, we will be diving headfirst into camp buzz, personnel developments, and weekly reports counting down the days until Labor Day weekend. At KSR+, we are going to start getting ready for the schedule.

For the sixth year in a row, I will be providing weekly scouting reports on Thursday for Kentucky’s upcoming opponent that will include an in-depth look at personnel, advanced stats, scheme background, betting information, series history, program profile, and keys to victory. That is coming very soon.

However, it’s never too early to start getting some homework done. We are now going to start pumping out some early scouting reports as we do some research and take a closer look at the foes on Kentucky’s schedule. Up next is the other Power Five program in the Bluegrass State that is very excited about its first family returning home.

Scouting Reports: Ball State, Eastern Kentucky, Akron, Vanderbilt, Florida, Georgia, Missouri, Tennessee, Mississippi State, Alabama, South Carolina

Nuts and Bolts

Scott Satterfield finished year four at Louisville with a 7-5 record. However, this ACC program did have some momentum. The Cards fielded their best defense in nearly a decade under defensive coordinator Bryan Brown, and tailback Jawhar Jordan was one of the best in the ACC. With a top-25 class committed, things were looking up.

That was until Satterfield decided to bolt.

The Louisville administration was unwilling to hand out a contract extension and Satterfield jumped at the opportunity to replace Luke Fickell at Cincinnati for one of the strangest hires of the coaching carousel. That move allowed Louisville to hire the coach that everyone originally wanted when this job opened during the 2018 season.

Jeff Brohm played quarterback at Louisville from 1989-93. A decade later, he joined UofL’s staff under Bobby Petrino and became offensive coordinator under Steve Kragthorpe. After a falling out, Brohm bounced around to a couple of different places before re-joining Petrino at WKU in 2013. After Petrino left for Louisville again, Brohm became head coach at WKU and led the Tops to consecutive C-USA titles in 2015-16 building one of the most exciting offenses in college football. That work in Bowling Green landed Brohm at Purdue. The 52-year-old spent six seasons in the Big Ten accumulating a 36-34 record with a division title. After turning down Louisville in 2019, Brohm was unable to do that again.

The move has given the program true alignment for the first time since Petrino and Tom Jurich were still on campus together. Everyone is pulling in the right direction, and there is some big-time buzz and optimism surrounding the program under their new leader.

Brohm’s two younger brothers — Brian (offensive coordinator) and Greg (chief of staff — are both on staff. Meanwhile, there are multiple other staffers with direct ties to the city. This is the most UofL-connected staff possible. The Cards are banking on a big old reunion leading to big results on the football field.

Transfer Portal recap

Last season, Scott Satterfield turned to the transfer portal and added double-digit players. Tyler Hudson (Central Arkansas) went over 1,000 yards. Tiyon Evans (Louisville) was one of the ACC’s top tailbacks when healthy. Jarvis Brownlee Jr. (Florida State), Quincy Riley (Middle Tennessee), and M.J. Griffin (Temple each played winning football in the secondary. Jeff Brohm is not going away from that plan.

Louisville lost 20 scholarship players to the transfer portal with half of those landing at power conference programs. Most notably, starters at linebacker, wide receiver, kicker, and punter were all wiped. However, no one is talking about the losses because Brohm’s staff added 24 scholarship players from the portal, according to On3’s database.

Jack Plummer (California) is the new QB1. All three starting receivers likely directly came from the portal. The staff addressed offensive line (six additions), secondary (five additions), and wide receiver (four additions) depth in a big way. The Cards could open the season with eight first-year transfers in the starting lineup and many others

UofL was a mini Colorado this offseason.

Louisville offense

Jeff Brohm is a play-calling head coach who had extremely pass-heavy offenses at Purdue. Outside of Mike Leach, I’m not sure anyone preferred the forward pass more than Brohm. The Boilermakers were very much a dink-and-dunk operation that trusted their quarterback to make decisions with accuracy in the short-to-intermediate throw game.

Now Brohm will be taking over an offense that leaned run-heavy, but transfers are flipping this roster quickly.

Scoring: 26.9 (No. 74 overall)Points Per Drive: 2.10 (No. 75 overall)Success Rate: 40.0% (No. 76 overall)Yards Per Play: 6.0 (No. 44 overall)Yards Per Rush: 5.0 (No. 28 overall)Yards Per Pass: 7.3 (No. 69 overall)Run Play Percentage: 56.7% (No. 31 overall)20+ Yard Plays: 66 (No. 43 overall)Red Zone TD Percentage: 48.9% (No. 116 overall)

Last season, Purdue ranked No. 82 in points per drive (1.97), No. 45 in success rate (43.0%), No. 12 in pass play percentage (57.8%), and No. 89 in yards per play (5.3). That was with draft picks playing at quarterback, wide receiver, and tight end. The operation will be much different under Brohm. Louisville will be a pass-heavy ball control offense.

Brohm’s first QB1 is familiar with this style of play having spent four years at Purdue and one year at Cal for an offense that ranked No. 4 (61.7%) in pass play percentage.

Jack Plummer (6-5, 215, Super) lost his QB1 job at Purdue to Aidan O’Connell but did start 13 games during his four years in West Lafayette. The pocket passer enters his final season in college football with 6,524 passing yards, 49 total touchdowns, and a 63.7 percent completion rate. However, last season at Cal was not great when digging into some of the advanced numbers. Plummer’s passing success rate (37.1%) was extremely low and he took a fair amount of sacks (34). However, he still was a dink-and-dunk quarterback (6.9 yards ADOT) and is familiar with this scheme.

The power conference transfer should be a solid placeholder at quarterback until Brohm finds a more long-term option. In the first year at Louisville, this pass-heavy approach will go as far as the wideouts take them. Louisville’s new staff went heavy in the transfer portal to find some new weapons.

Georgia State transfer Jamari Thrash (6-1, 185, RSr.) moves to the ACC from the Sun Belt after recording 61 receptions (94 targets), 1,122 yards, and seven touchdowns last season. Thrash was one of the Group of Five’s top receivers and should become Plummer’s clear No. 1 option.

Jackson State transfer Kevin Coleman (5-11, 180, So.), Tennessee transfer Jimmy Calloway (6-0, 190, RJr.), and Cincinnati transfer Jadon Thompson (6-2, 190, Sr.) will all contribute this season. The Cardinals have conducted a serious makeover on offense. That continues on the offensive line.

Starting center Bryan Hudson (6-5, 305, Super), starting guard Michael Gonzalez (6-4, 305, Jr.), and starting right tackle Renato Brown (6-4, 315, RSr.) return to give the offensive line a solid nucleus. However, the new coaching staff went to the transfer portal to rebuild the room. Purdue transfer Eric Miller (6-7, 305, Super) will open the season at left tackle after playing over 1,700 snaps in the Big Ten the last two seasons. Virginia transfer John Paul Flores (6-4, 305, Super) is the favorite to start at left guard. Louisville then addressed depth at tackle with multiple additional transfer additions. This offensive has a chance to be one of the better groups in the ACC.

Back at WKU, Brohm’s offense produced a 1,000-yard rusher each season while still being more of a pass-first operation. Only one tailback in six seasons at Purdue went over 800 yards. However, Brohm could have the tailback and line combination to get to that 1,000-yard threshold in 2023.

Jawhar Jordan (5-10, 185, RSr.) has always been an excellent kickoff returner (28.0 return average, 2 touchdowns in 24 attempts), but he became one of the ACC’s top backs last year when given an RB1 workload. Over the last five games, the former Syracuse transfer rushed for 555 yards and three touchdowns on 7.4 yards per rush. This could give Brohm’s first offense some additional explosiveness.

There are many new pieces, and the scheme transition will be notable in Brohm’s first season back home.

Louisville defense

After three rough seasons, things finally went Louisville’s way under defensive coordinator Bryan Brown. Using a pressure-heavy scheme, the Cardinals racked up the havoc numbers to produce a top-25 defense. However, things could be different under the new regime.

Jeff Brohm brought defensive coordinator Ron English with him to Louisville from Purdue. The former Eastern Michigan head coach called plays at Louisville in 2008 before producing a pair of solid defenses for the Boilermakers. The 55-year-old inherits some returning production, but this unit lost real star power.

Scoring: 19.2 (No. 11 overall)Points Per Drive: 1.59 (No. 13 overall)Success Rate: 41.0% (No. 60 overall)Yards Per Play: 6.0 (No. 44 overall)Yards Per Rush: 3.6 (No. 28 overall)Yards Per Pass: 7.1 (No. 58 overall)Tackles For Loss Per Game: 7.5 (No. 8 overall)Passes Defended Per Game: 4.1 (No. 72 overall)20+ Yard Plays: 59 (No. 81 overall)Red Zone TD Percentage: 48.8% (No. 18 overall)Takeaways: 30 (No. 3 overall)

Louisville feasted on havoc plays and takeaways. Unfortunately, most of that playmaking production has been lost. Yasir Abdullah (14.5 tackles for loss, 59 pressures, four pass breakups, four forced fumbles, two interceptions) and YaYa Diaby (14 tackles for loss, 36 pressures, two pass breakups) are now on NFL rosters. Linebacker Monty Montgomery (11 tackles for loss, 23 pressures, four forced fumbles, two pass breakups, two interceptions) left for Ole Miss.

There are some big shoes to fill, but the Cards have some building blocks.

On the line of scrimmage, Ashton Gillotte (6-3, 270, Jr.) might be the best NFL prospect on this roster. The former low three-star recruit out of South Florida recorded 23 tackles and six sacks on 26 pressures. The Cards need him to be a cornerstone in this 4-2-5 scheme.

Elsewhere, this group has a ton of experience with Dezmond Tell (6-1, 290, Sr.) and Ramon Puryear (6-3, 270, RSr.) are multi-year starters. Depth has rapidly improved in the trenches over the last year. Louisville will need Stanford transfer Stephen Herron (6-4, 240, RSr.) to provide additional playmaking at the hybrid LEO position.

The weakest position on this defense can be found at the second level. Louisville saw potential starters K.J. Cloyd (Miami), Dorian Jones (Cincinnati), and Monty Montgomery (Ole Miss) all depart via the transfer portal. Keith Brown (6-2, 235, Jr.) was added to the roster after playing 200-plus defensive snaps for Oregon last year. Louisville needs the former blue-chip recruit to play at a high level while the staff must develop the other inexperienced players on the roster. Expect teams to attempt to isolate and attack this position group.

The front seven has much to prove, Louisville should feel fairly confident in its secondary. At cornerback Jarvis Brownlee Jr. (6-0, 190, RSr.) and Quincy Riley (6-0, 185, RSr.) return after combining to record 14 pass breakups and five interceptions last season. North Carolina transfer Storm Duck (6-1, 200, Super) will give the Cards good depth. Georgia transfer Marcus Washington (6-1, 185, RFr.) and Texas A&M transfer Marquis Groves-Killebrew (6-0, 185, RFr.) were high-ceiling additions to give this position a long-term plan.

At safety, Josh Minkins (6-2, 200, Sr.) returns after starting 25 games over the last two seasons. The Cards lost starter M.J. Griffin for the season during training camp, but Baylor transfer Devin Neal (6-0, 210, Sr.) should be a quality replacement. Benjamin Perry (6-3, 205, RSo.) returns to fill the hybrid nickel role. The Cards have one of the best secondary groups in the ACC, but the loss of Griffin could hurt depth.

With Gillotte, Brownlee, Riley, and Minkins, English has some cornerstones to build around. Louisville likely won’t be a top-25 defense again due to lost star power, but the personnel is there for this unit to be a top-half defense in the ACC.

Outlook

Expectations are high in the Derby City with many in the fan base drinking the kool-aid. Jeff Brohm is “one of us” within the Louisville fan base, and this program is happy that the first family is home to lead the Cardinals add in a schedule with a lot of winnable games, and the ACC program is dreaming big.

Louisville avoids Clemson, Florida State, and North Carolina this season. Despite having 11 power conference opponents on the schedule, a run at a potential ACC Championship appearance could be possible if Brohm can record a stellar close game record in year one.

The buzz is back around this program, but this is a team going through a lot of change. The schemes will be different on both sides of the football with some tough games away from home before the bye week arrives in mid-October. We will likely see some ups and downs with Louisville again.

The Cards need their transfer class to deliver in a big way, but the floor seems surprisingly high thanks to some key returning pieces and an overall favorable slate.

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