Corey Clark: FSU Baseball must rebound quickly to have shot at Top 8 national seed
I have to admit, even I was impressed by jinxing skills this weekend. One day after writing how the 2024 Florida State baseball team is putting together one of the best offensive seasons in program history, the Seminoles went out on Friday and scored exactly 0 runs in a brutal loss at Pittsburgh.
I’ll go ahead and take the blame for that one, folks. Don’t be mad at the players. Nothing they could do.
The Clark Jinx is way more powerful than any aluminum bats.
Pitt could’ve had Jared Verse on the mound, and the Seminoles weren’t going to be able to muster any offense a day after that. Just how my life works.
Anywho, in all seriousness, that wasn’t a good weekend for Florida State. Clearly.
It was nice that the Seminoles came out in Game 3 and pummeled Pitt 15-4, but having to salvage one game against Mike Bell’s Panthers wasn’t what Link Jarrett had in mind when the series started. This was a big series, too. If the Seminoles could have won two of the three, then they would have kept on pace to be a Top 8 national seed, in my opinion.
Now, I’m sure they have work to do.
Not impossible, obviously. But they need to — at the very least — beat Georgia Tech two out of three this weekend to stay in contention to be a potential Super Regional host. (A win at Stetson on Tuesday wouldn’t be the worst thing in the world either.)
FSU currently sits at No. 7 in the RPI, and wins against a top-50 Georgia Tech team would be positive.
No matter what, Florida State has locked up an NCAA Tournament berth. And I would guess two more wins this week would lock up a Top 16 regional-hosting berth as well. That’s not nothing. That’s a big step for a program that missed the postseason altogether last season and hasn’t played a tourney game at Dick Howser Stadium in six years.
Yep. You read that right. It’s been six full seasons since FSU hosted an NCAA Regional. So, if nothing else, getting to that status again would be a positive.
But there’s a chance to do something special in 2024.
Well, check that. I used to think there was a chance. I’m worried — legitimately — that injuries on the mound have left this pitching staff with just too many question marks to be a real contender for a national championship.
If Cam Leiter was able to pitch again at some point this season, this team would be a serious threat. But who knows? Doesn’t seem promising, does it?
If Ben Barrett and Conner Whittaker were surefire reliable pieces on this staff, I would think this team is a serious threat. But Barrett has thrown a handful of pitches since his return to the mound, and while Whittaker actually did pitch an inning of scoreless relief in Game 2 at Pitt, it’s still way, way, way too early to know what he’s going to be down the stretch.
It’s all such a bummer. With a fully healthy, or even mostly healthy, FSU pitching staff, I think you’re looking at the No. 1 team in the United States. At least one of the two or three best. This offense, despite my jinx-inducing story, is still one of the best in the country. Cam Smith and James Tibbs are legitimately great college baseball hitters. The defense has been good all year, too.
And Jamie Arnold is one of the elite pitchers in the nation.
He’s just awesome. He struck out 17 Panthers on Friday, and lost the game 1-0 on a solo homer.
“Thanks a lot, Clark!”
Hey, you should’ve struck out 18, Jamie! Don’t blame me!
Seriously, Arnold is terrific. If he was eligible this season, the sophomore lefty would be a first-round draft pick. As long as he stays healthy, he will be next year. It would be scary if he had two dependable starters in the rotation with him. But the rest of this Florida State pitching staff continues to be a hot-and-cold roller coaster (that is a masterpiece of a mixed metaphor).
You just don’t know what you’re going to get game from game. That includes Game 2 starter, Carson Dorsey, who couldn’t get out of the second inning against Pitt.
Like most of his teammates, it would appear Dorsey prefers playing at Dick Howser Stadium.
The Seminoles are 25-3 at home this season. And just 8-9 on the road. They’re 4-0 at neutral sites.
That’s why this week, this weekend in particular, is so critical to this team’s chances of making noise in June.
Take care of business against Georgia Tech, win the series, get to 40 victories on the year, and there’s still at least a decent chance FSU is a Top 8 national seed. Which means, of course, a potential Super Regional series at Dick Howser Stadium.
That gives you a chance to make some magic. That gives you a chance to maybe, just maybe, get back to Omaha for the first time in five years. And who knows? Maybe by that time, you’ll have yourself a mostly healthy pitching staff?
We can dare to dream.
Contact senior writer Corey Clark at corey@warchant.com.
*Talk about this story with other die-hard Florida State baseball fans in the FSU Baseball Forum*
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