Column: Forecasting Penn State season filled with new variables
In my head, the words read like fingernails on a chalkboard. Reflecting on a July 1, 2016 email sent to Matt Herb, our magazine editor at Blue White Illustrated, the six-paragraph write-up begins.
“This is one of the more challenging preseason predictions I can remember making in my time at BWI following an offseason of change and new direction for the Nittany Lions football program,” I wrote, detailing the complexities that would dictate the program’s success for the upcoming season.
Weaving my way through the possibilities held in the talent of running back Saquon Barkley, the Nittany Lions’ receivers, and defensive backs, I questioned the impact of a new offensive coordinator and the quality of play in the trenches on both sides of the ball. Failing to find conviction in my offseason analysis for the program coming out of its 7-6 campaign in 2015, I found myself unwilling and unable to let incremental improvements translate to the field.
“Still a year away from being a truly healthy program,” I wrote, “another 7-5 season seems likely.”
Whoops
We all know what happened next.
Penn State, battling past a 2-2 start that included a loss at Pittsburgh in the second week, and a 49-10 blowout at No. 4-ranked Michigan in the fourth week, went on to win a Big Ten title. Shedding the loss to the Wolverines, the Nittany Lions went on to win their next nine games. They upset No. 2 Ohio State with one of the program’s all-time most iconic plays. And, once ranked among the top 25 teams in the country, they breezed through wins by two or more touchdowns in their final five games of the regular season.
By the time they upset No. 6 Wisconsin in the Big Ten Championship Game in Indianapolis, even the most optimistic preseason prognostications had fallen short. Penn State shattered expectations en route to its first Rose Bowl bid since 2008, and my preseason misgivings proved largely unwarranted.
This might seem like the natural point to draw comparisons between that team and the one Penn State is poised to field in 2024. That, armed with a new offensive coordinator and a strong defense, the Nittany Lions appear poised to, or have the potential to, produce the same type of success in the coming weeks and months.
It is not.
As a reporter working to nail the pulse of the Penn State football program, and pass those vibes onto this community of readers, the opening sentiment is the one most applicable. Despite the anticipation for the Nittany Lions in 2024, a build-up spanning the past two years, the notion of making a preseason pick is fraught with landmines.
Looking ahead
The program has new coordinators for all three facets of the game. Andy Kotelnicki, Tom Allen, and Justin Lustig have generated the requisite enthusiasm for the changes they can affect for the Nittany Lions offense, defense, and special teams units, respectively. But, even the first seasons for Joe Moorhead and Brent Pry as OC and DC in 2016 needed time before taking traction.
There are obvious personnel strengths, weaknesses, and everything spanning the spectrum in between, also at issue. Despite the losses of two ends to the first two days of the NFL Draft, four players from the defensive backfield, and a veteran linebacker, Penn State’s defense appears to be in reload mode again.
On the offensive side of the ball, Nick Singleton and Kaytron Allen again form the foundation of a unit holding potential. Can Drew Allar leap from a solid sophomore season to undeniably great as a junior? Are the Nittany Lions’ receivers explosive enough to offset the spring departure of KeAndre Lambert-Smith? And, not unlike the defensive side of the ball, three drafted offensive linemen, the most for the program since 1993, will be a hurdle to overcome.
A changing landscape
Maybe most critically, none of the internal “what-ifs” about Penn State football this season address the larger forces at work. In a college football landscape that has radically transformed through the past four years, the 2024 season is set to be, by orders of magnitude, unlike any other before it.
In the immediate, Penn State will face a Big Ten schedule without Michigan included for the first time since 2013. During a year the Wolverines are expected to take something of a step back following their national championship, the Nittany Lions would likely prefer to have that tilt. Instead, they will again take on Ohio State, an expected title contender, riding a seven-game losing streak to the Buckeyes with just one win in the last 12 games of the matchup.
Part of a Big Ten conference that has 1) expanded by four teams and 2) eliminated its divisions this year, the rhythm and predictability of recent seasons is no more. Instead, Penn State will exchange regular Big Ten East foes Indiana, Michigan, Rutgers, and Michigan State for the likes of UCLA, USC, and Washington.
Further, the College Football Playoff expansion from four to 12 teams similarly upends the paradigm. The final CFP ranking following conference championship weekend included five teams with two losses and nine with at least one. Throw in a highly unusual two off dates in the first seven weeks of the season. The variables are wider in what constitutes success, and leads to it, than any other in Penn State’s recent history.
Under all of those parameters, the program reaching those goals isn’t the only daunting challenge at hand. Rather, making a prediction one way or the other is going to be just as hard.
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