College Football Playoff Bubble Watch after Week 13: Who is in, who is out?
Predicting who will make the College Football Playoff is so much harder than it was a year ago. You’d think things would get a little easier once you hit Thanksgiving, but the chaos-infested Saturday we just had is making it extremely difficult. I
It’s particularly hard when you need a graphic calculator to decipher who is going to be playing in the conference championship games.
We’re still going to try. Every week after the slate, I’ll channel my inner college basketball writer and bring you a Bubble Watch. Of course, this list is subject to change dramatically from week to week as we gain more data.
Last Four In
Tennessee: The Volunteers entered the weekend worried about a potential argument with Indiana for one of the final spots. Instead, Tennessee got an easy win over UTEP, saw the SEC explode, and now look like a mortal lock to make the field if it beats Vanderbilt on Saturday. Tennessee is not going to be playing in the conference title game, but a 10-2 record in the SEC is good enough to make the field.
Texas: The Longhorns have been the most consistent team in the SEC this year, but part of that is because they have been the beneficiary of a pretty advantageous schedule. Texas has a really tough game at Texas A&M next weekend. Texas, though, is probably the better team. The reward for winning? A matchup with Georgia in Atlanta. It’s tough to picture Texas going 2-0 in the next two games.
Indiana: Indiana failed its first — and only — big test of the season Saturday in a blowout loss to Ohio State. Had teams like Ole Miss and Alabama won later in the evening, the Hoosiers could have found themselves in hot water. But because the SEC fell apart, Indiana seems like a pretty safe bet to crack the 12-team field if it finishes 11-1.
SMU: Entering Saturday, the ACC felt like a one-bid league. That changed. The Mustangs have clinched a spot in the ACC Championship Game. Even if they lose to Miami in Charlotte, SMU should be a really attractive option for one of the final spots as a two-loss team. If not SMU, who else do you feel comfortable putting in this spot?
First Four Out
Clemson: Since being blown out by Louisville in early November, Clemson has simply just been out of the Playoff race. Clemson responded to its second loss of the season by winning three straight, but it still needs Miami or SMU to lose if it has any fantasy of making the Playoff. Even if Clemson doesn’t seriously threaten to crack the field, it will still land in this spot if it finishes the season 10-2.
Alabama: The Crimson Tide lost 24-3 at Oklahoma on Saturday. That was a shocking result, but it effectively knocked Alabama out of the Playoff race. That doesn’t mean Alabama, with a win over Auburn, wouldn’t land somewhere in the top 15 if it finishes 9-3.
Ole Miss: Ole Miss was one of the hottest teams in the country entering the weekend, but it went to Florida and lost an elimination game. The Rebels assembled a roster that could have competed for the SEC Championship and maybe more, but they won’t be able to overcome losses to Kentucky and Florida.
Iowa State: Coming into the weekend, Iowa State was on the outside looking in at the Big 12 race. But after Colorado and BYU took losses, that opened the door for the Cyclones to get to Dallas to play for the conference championship. Technically, Iowa State could find itself in a position to control its own destiny for a College Football Playoff berth in a few weeks.
Next Four Out
South Carolina: The Gamecocks are playing as well as anyone in the country right now. It’s hard for South Carolina fans to fathom, but had they held on in the LSU or Alabama game, it would probably have a real chance of cracking the field. It’s been a really solid year for Shane Beamer‘s program, but South Carolina just lost one too many games.
Colorado: Colorado entered the weekend controlling its destiny in the Big 12 and CFP race. The Buffaloes, however, lost to Kansas in a game in which their defense just couldn’t come up with a stop. It was a successful year for Deion Sanders, even if the prevailing feeling right now is disappointment.
Illinois: Illinois dramatically beat Rutgers Saturday to improve its record to 8-3. If it wins its regular-season finale against Northwestern next weekend, the Illini will improve to 9-3 and ultimately find itself somewhere in the 20 range in the CFP poll.
Texas A&M: The Aggies suffered a loss at Auburn on Saturday night in a game that went to four overtimes. They still, however, can play their way into the SEC title game with a win over Texas in College Station next weekend. That should be one of the best crowds this sport has ever seen, so maybe Texas A&M has some late-season magic still up its sleeve. If it loses to the Longhorns, it could be the highest-ranked four-loss team.
Group of 5 Watch
UNLV: Fresno State’s win over Colorado State late Saturday night paved the way for UNLV to play in the Mountain West Championship Game. All UNLV has to do is beat Nevada next weekend and it has a chance to win its conference. If the Rebels go to Boise, play Boise State, and win, they have a really good chance to be the highest-ranked Group of 5 conference champion. That means a CFP berth.
Boise State: Boise State is still currently in pole position in the G5 race to the Playoff. It has one of the best players in college football in Ashton Jeanty, but is it actually the best team in the country not playing in a power conference? After struggling to beat Wyoming on Saturday, there’s at least some question about that. If Boise State wins the Mountain West, it’ll be in the Playoff.
Tulane: The Green Wave didn’t play Saturday, but they are currently riding an eight-game winning streak. With Army losing to Notre Dame, Tulane is now the last-remaining unbeaten team in the American. It has a tricky game against Memphis next weekend, but Tulane, who has only suffered losses to Kansas State and Oklahoma, remains alive in the Playoff race.
Louisiana: Louisiana would be much more alive in the Playoff race had it not lost to South Alabama last Saturday. The Ragin’ Cajuns, who also lost to Tulane in the nonconference, have two losses. But only one of those losses are in the Sun Belt.
The Projected Bracket
No. 9 Texas at No. 8 Tennessee
Winner faces No. 1 Ohio State in the Rose Bowl
No. 12 UNLV at No. 5 Oregon
Winner faces No. 4 Arizona State in the Fiesta Bowl
No. 10 Indiana at No. 7 Notre Dame
Winner faces No. 2 Georgia in the Sugar Bowl
No. 11 SMU at No. 6 Penn State
Winner faces No. 3 Miami in the Peach Bowl
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