College Football Cheat Sheet: Week 13
We have reached the penultimate weekend of the college football regular season. The sprint is almost over, and we’ve got some games with major stakes as the playoff race continues to heat up.
KSR’s College Football Cheat Sheet sets the table for another college football weekend. Let’s see what you got, Indiana.
The Slate
Temple at UTSA7:00pm ET (Friday)ESPN2Purdue at Michigan State8:00pm ET (Friday)FOXNo. 24 UNLV at San Jose State10:00pm ET (Friday)FS1North Carolina at Boston CollegeNoon ETThe CWSam Houston at Jacksonville StateNoon ETCBS Sports NetworkWake Forest at No. 8 MiamiNoon ETESPNNo. 13 SMU at VirginiaNoon ETESPN2No. 25 Illinois at RutgersNoon ETPeacockNo. 5 Indiana at No. 2 Ohio StateNoon ETFOXIowa at MarylandNoon ETBig Ten NetworkNo. 9 Ole Miss at FloridaNoon ETABCUConn at SyracuseNoon ETACC NetworkUMass at No. 10 Georgia12:45pm ETSEC NetworkWKU at Liberty1:00pm ETESPN+UTEP at No. 11 Tennessee1:00pm ETESPN+Charleston Southern at Florida State1:30pm ETESPN+Rice at UAB2:00pm ETESPN+Bowling Green at Ball State2:00pm ETESPN+New Mexico State at Middle Tennessee2:30pm ETESPN+James Madison at Appalachian State2:30pm ETESPN+FIU at Kennesaw State3:00pm ETESPN+ULM at Arkansas State3:00pm ETESPN+Arizona at TCU3:00pm ETESPN+Charlotte at Florida Atlantic3:00pm ETESPN+South Alabama at Southern Miss3:00pm ETESPN+Texas Tech at Oklahoma State3:30pm ETESPN+UCF at West Virginia3:30pm ETESPNUTulsa at USF3:30pm ETESPN+East Carolina at North Texas3:30pm ETESPN+San Diego State at Utah State3:30pm ETCBS Sports NetworkNo. 14 BYU at No. 21 Arizona State3:30pm ET ESPNGeorgia Southern at Coastal Carolina3:30pm ETESPN+No. 16 Colorado at Kansas3:30pm ETFOXWisconsin at Nebraska3:30pm ETBig Ten NetworkStanford at California3:30pm ETACC NetworkNo. 4 Penn State at Minnesota3:30pm ETCBSNorthwestern at Michigan3:30pm ETFS1The Citadel at No. 17 Clemson3:30pm ETThe CWKentucky at No. 3 Texas3:30pm ETABCPittsburgh at Louisville4:00pm ETESPN2Louisiana Tech at Arkansas4:00pm ETESPN+No. 23 Missouri at Mississippi State4:15pm ETSEC NetworkTroy at Louisiana5:00pm ETESPN+Washington State at Oregon State7:00pm ETThe CWBaylor at Houston7:00pm ETFS1No. 12 Boise State at Wyoming7:00pm ETCBS Sports NetworkGeorgia State at Texas State7:00pm ETESPN+No. 7 Alabama at Oklahoma7:30pm ETABCNo. 15 Texas A&M at Auburn7:30pm ETESPNNo. 22 Iowa State at Utah7:30pm ETFOXNo. 19 Army vs. No. 6 Notre Dame (Yankee Stadium)7:30pm ETNBCMarshall at Old Dominion7:30pm ETESPNUVanderbilt at LSU7:45pm ETSEC NetworkVirginia Tech at Duke8:00pm ETACC NetworkCincinnati at Kansas State8:00pm ETESPN2USC at UCLA10:30pm ETFOXAir Force at Nevada10:30pm ETFS1Colorado State at Fresno State10:30pm ETCBS Sports Network
Top Games
No. 5 Indiana at No. 2 Ohio State
No. 19 Army vs. No. 6 Notre Dame
No. 14 BYU at No. 21 Arizona State
No. 9 Ole Miss at Florida
No. 7 Alabama at Oklahoma
No. 15 Texas A&M at Auburn
No. 4 Penn State at Minnesota
No. 16 Colorado at Kansas
No. 13 SMU at Virginia
USC at UCLA
College Football Gambling Corner
Want spread plays? We got spread plays.
— Luckett’s Locks: Penultimate Picks
Indiana’s colossal stage
Indiana (10-0, 7-0) has been the biggest surprise story in college football this season. In year one under head coach Curt Cignetti, the Hoosiers rank in the top three in net EPA/play, success rate, and yards per play. IU has an elite passing game (No. 1 in success rate, No. 1 in EPA/play, No. 2 in yards per dropback) led by Ohio quarterback transfer Kurtis Rourke (71.8% completion rate, 10.1 yards per attempt, 23 total touchdowns). The defense is outstanding against the run (No. 8 in success rate allowed) and strong against the pass (No. 18 in EPA/dropback allowed). The Hoosiers are a complete football team.
But their at-large playoff bid could be in muddy waters with a loss on Saturday in Columbus.
Ohio State (9-1, 6-1) is still in national title or bust mode after spending $20 million on this current roster. The Buckeyes also rank in the top five in net EPA/play, success rate, and yards per play. The offense under first-year play-caller Chip Kelly ranks No. 4 in success rate and No. 3 in EPA/play. The defense ranks No. 11 in success rate allowed and No. 4 in EPA/play allowed. This team went toe-to-toe with Oregon and Penn State on the road.
An Ohio State win would all but guarantee that the Buckeyes and Ducks would meet in Indianapolis for the Big Ten Championship Game with the winner securing the No. 1 overall seed and the loser grabbing the No. 5 seed. But Indiana could make that case with a win. The recruiting rankings tell us this shouldn’t be close, but all of the metrics point to a 50/50 game.
“Big Noon Saturday” has got a good one on the tee box.
Does Notre Dame pass another test
The season began with a terrific road win for Notre Dame (9-1) in Week 1. That road victory against Texas A&M has only improved as the season progressed. However, the horrific Week 3 home loss to Northern Illinois has gotten worse.
The Irish have passed every test since with wins over Louisville, Georgia Tech, and Navy. But all of those teams are now out of the top 25. Notre Dame needs another good win to boost the resume and put them in a good spot before next week’s matchup against USC.
Army (9-0, 7-0) has moved into the top 20 of the playoff rankings and has a matchup with Tulane for the AAC title locked in for Championship Week. The Black Knights have won every game by double-digits this season as this option offense ranks No. 2 in EPA/play. But Notre Dame has handled another option team already this season.
The Irish hammered Navy at a neutral site. Will the same happen against Army? A win gets Notre Dame closer to an at-large bid but a loss opens the door for Tennessee and gives Army a potential resume to jump ahead of Boise State.
By the way, this game is being played at Yankee Stadium. This one feels different in a lot of ways.
Big 12 Elimination
The dream season took a hit for BYU (9-1, 6-1) last week in the home loss to Kansas. The Cougars still control their College Football Playoff destiny as they sit atop the conference standings with Colorado but a big test awaits in Tempe.
Arizona State (8-2, 5-2) might be the sport’s biggest surprise outside of Indiana as Kenny Dillingham as the Sun Devils competition for a conference title in year two. A win on Saturday afternoon would officially get this program into the thick of the Big 12 standings.
Elsewhere, Kansas will get another upset chance when they host Colorado (8-2, 6-1) at Arrowhead Stadium. Iowa State (8-2, 5-2) is still alive in this championship race but is also on the road to face Utah.
Saturday is a big one in the Big 12. One of these four teams could be eliminated from the title race.
Chaos Ingredients
It feels like it has been a few weeks since we’ve seen some absolute upset carnage. That could arrive this weekend. There are 11 ranked teams hitting the road to play unranked conference foes the week before much anticipated rivalry games. Could this be a look-ahead spot for anyone?
No. 4 Penn State (-11.5) at Minnesota
No. 7 Alabama (-13.5) at Oklahoma
No. 9 Ole Miss (-12.5) at Florida
No. 12 Boise State (-23) at Wyoming
No. 13 SMU (-10) at Virginia
No. 15 Texas A&M (-2.5) at Auburn
No. 16 Colorado (-3) at Kansas
No. 22 Iowa State (-7) at Utah
No. 23 Missouri (-8) at Mississippi State
No. 24 UNLV (-7.5) at San Jose State
No. 25 Illinois (+1) at Rutgers
Penn State, Alabama, Ole Miss, and Boise State are all currently in the playoff field. SMU, Texas A&M, Colorado, and Iowa State are all in the hunt. Odds are high that we see multiple ranked teams from this group suffer losses in Week 13.
Saturday could deliver some chaos.
The rest of the college football card
— Saturday is another opportunity for Billy Napier and DJ Lagway to deliver another statement win after knocking off LSU last week. Lane Kiffin rolls into town with Ole Miss and there was a lot of speculation that Kiffin could’ve become the next Florida coach if Napier was let go. Now they get to go head-to-head. This one could include some vertical passing fireworks.
— Nebraska (5-5, 2-5) has dropped four consecutive games and could see that bowl drought reach eight years without one more win. Saturday on Senior Day feels like the best chance for the Huskers facing a Wisconsin (5-5, 3-4) coming three consecutive losses. Both head coach have made in-season changes at offensive coordinator. This one could get weird in Lincoln.
— Michigan (5-5, 3-4) hosts Northwestern (4-6, 2-5) on Senior Day is there is nothing really at stake but this total is ridiculous. The Wolverines are a 10-point favorite with a total of 36.5. That’s a projected final score of 23-13. Get ready for an absolute rock fight in the Big House.
— Alabama (8-2, 4-2) is making the trek to Norman to play a college football game for only the second time ever and no one is talking about it. Oklahoma (5-5, 1-5) is the No. 1 reason why. The Sooners are having a bad season in year three under Brent Venables and are another team that has made an in-season offensive coordinator change. The Tide looks like a national title contender and Oklahoma is ready for a December rebuild. Could what Venables called “Sooner Magic” arrive on Saturday night before Iron Bowl week arrives for Alabama?
— Hugh Freeze is having on rocky tenure on the Plains but Auburn (4-6, 1-5) has a shot a recording a signature win to help a lost season look better. Texas A&M (8-2, 5-1) heads into Jordan-Hare Stadium with a huge game at Kyle Field against Texas awaiting next week. Can Freeze finally get that big win he has been looking for since arriving? This one feels like it could be dramatic.
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