Carolina Confidential – Final thoughts on South Carolina vs. LSU
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After taking care of business last week against Kentucky, South Carolina this week finds itself with the rare opportunity of having the college football spotlight on the team, program, and school as LSU rolls into Columbia for the first time since 2008.
The schedule has ramped up week by week and after the degree of difficulty increased last week it takes another jump this week with the Tigers, who also will use a much different style of play on offense and defense than the Wildcats last week.
Kentucky under Mark Stoops has always been a heavy zone team on defense and those zone defenses have to be attacked a certain way. As we talked about in the days after the game, Carolina was able to scheme up (and execute) some great calls against what Kentucky was trying to do on defense.
This week, the Gamecocks face an LSU defense that is much more heavily based on man coverage principles and that blitzes nearly 50 percent of the time.
This is also a much different test for the Carolina defense. As we found out last week, Kentucky has major issues in pass protection and questions at the quarterback position as well.
LSU, despite losing Jayden Daniels and two first-round wide receivers, has gotten great production from its passing game, which brings us to the first major storyline for the game.
Strength vs. Strength
“By God, LSU offensive line against South Carolina defensive line, you will get every bit of that (heavyweight fight) this weekend. Tune in just for that; it will be worth the price of admission or worth your eyeballs on the television, I promise you. That’s what I want to see, and I can’t wait to talk about it next week.” – SEC Network’s Cole Cubelic on Cube Show podcast
South Carolina’s defensive line is for real. I have no doubts about that. Saturday we find out if they’re among the most elite in college football when the Gamecocks’ front faces their toughest test yet in the form of LSU’s offensive line, largely considered one of the best in college football.
LSU’s offensive line, led by the tackle duo of Will Campbell and Emory Jones, is one of just two teams in the SEC that have yet to allow a sack on the season. The Tigers return four of five starters from a Joe Moore Award finalist line last year.
My guess is each side is going to win some battles; it’s going to be hard for either to just dominate the other. But will LSU’s experience and size take over as the game progresses or will the Gamecocks’ depth allow them to continue to throw waves at an opponent and remain fresh at the end of the game? If this is a fourth quarter game, which I expect it to be, you hope that a rested Dylan Stewart and Kyle Kennard are going after the QB with the game on the line.
When we talk about this battle, we’re really talking more about the Carolina pass rush vs. the LSU pass protection, which leads us to one of our next key factors in the game…
Question mark vs. Question mark
As impressive as LSU is up front, the Tigers have not had much success running the football, especially after the season-ending injury to running back John Emery, who was the clear top back with no clear replacement waiting in the wings.
Some of LSU’s lack of success in the running game has been because they just haven’t run the ball as much, choosing instead to put the ball in the capable hands of Garrett Nussmeier and his receiving corps, which is led by Kyren Lacy.
The passing game has been impressive so far with Nussmeier throwing a college football-leading eight touchdowns so far this season. With plenty of time to throw behind that line, LSU has pushed the ball down the field far better than either of Carolina’s first opponents and I like the way they have attacked team’s through the air with the vertical passing game.
It’s one of those things where if the pass rush, as mentioned above, can get there then it negates a lot of that. But if LSU has the success in pass protection they’re used to, then the downfield passing game immediately becomes a threat.
Of course, if Carolina wants to really have a chance to get after the quarterback, they’re going to have to earn the right to rush the passer by forcing passing situations.
Kentucky’s offensive line was so overwhelmed that it did not end up mattering but there were some times that the Wildcats had success establishing the running game in between the tackles, especially early in the game. They may have outsmarted themselves by going away from it. Carolina was able to negate some of that by getting negative plays and standing up when it really mattered in the running game (4th and 1 comes to mind).
This is a Carolina front that is going to play aggressively and create havoc but also will surrender some chunks on the ground. I can’t shake this feeling that despite the lack of a rushing attack so far, that LSU is going to come out with something to prove on the ground and try to take both the crowd out of this one early and the Carolina front out of their pass rush mindset. Look for the Tigers running game early as they try to build confidence.
Question mark vs. Question Mark Part 2
It’s hard to believe that we’re talking about an LSU defense with questions in the secondary and at defensive tackle, two positions the Tigers have almost always featured future NFL players at — but that’s where we are.
The LSU secondary is a huge question mark so far and despite the addition of Blake Blaker, the former Missouri defensive coordinator, those problems won’t be fixed overnight.
On the other side of that matchup, you have a South Carolina wide receiver group that you’ve seen us talk and write about all offseason (no need to rehash all that).
Again, LSU is going to play a lot of man coverage more than likely… can the Gamecocks’ wide receiver separate against them? If not, can Carolina find some mismatches it likes with either tight ends or running backs matched up with linebackers? I thought there were some signs of progress last week from the receiving corps, so I’ll be paying close attention to that aspect this week.
Dowell Loggains schemed up some big plays last week and that’s possible against man coverage too, but those plays will look a lot different this week.
“Man beaters” are typically things like crossing routes, mesh combinations, pick or rub routes, slants, and sometimes go routes depending on where the safeties are. It’s a simplification but usually against zone you’re going to see guys “settle” or slow down/stop in open areas and you’ll see coaches overload an area of the field. Against man, you want routes where every receiver keeps moving.
It is, of course, easy to get caught up in the skill position side of the game, when ultimately the trenches matter just as much if not more.
The battle of Carolina’s offensive line and LSU’s defensive front may be getting overshadowed by the top billing of the two elite fronts on the other sides of the ball.
It doesn’t take much imagination to think of the amount of havoc a Blake Baker defense can cause up front when looking back to what Missouri did against the Gamecocks the last two seasons (albeit with different personnel).
Additionally, Carolina has struggled at times in pass protection with identifying and picking up the proper rushers. This is a Gamecock offense that has allowed way too many negative-yardage plays so far in both pass pro and the running game. They can’t afford to to do that this week.
Other thoughts
— Given everything written above, it’s hard to key in on if this will even be a low scoring or high scoring affair. Carolina’s defensive line continues to dominate and LSU causes havoc up front? Probably going low scoring. LSU establishes the run early and pairs that with an already explosive passing game while the Tigers’ defensive backs continue to struggle in coverage? It could go well over what anyone thinks. I don’t know that there’s a clear path of how this game will flow.
— One thing about playing a lot of man coverage is that it does make a defense susceptible to the QB run game, especially on scramble plays. Because defensive backs and linebackers have to turn and run with the player they’re guarding, that can free up space for big plays when quarterbacks escape the pocket that wouldn’t necessarily be there against zone coverage. Look out for LaNorris Sellers’ legs as a factor.
Nicholls also had a ton of success in the running game with the Wildcat. Carolina will probably shy away from running Sellers 20 times but is it possible we see more of Robby Ashford this week? It would make a lot of sense against this defense until they prove they can stop it.
— LSU wide receiver Kyren Lacy has been impressive after the catch. Tackling is always a key but will certainly be against him.
— Both teams have dangerous return men. Zavion Thomas transferred to LSU from Mississippi State and is a threat to break one at any time. Juju McDowell has also appeared extremely close to busting a long return so far this year. Just something to keep an eye on.
–As good as Nussmeier has been so far, he is also a bit of a gunslinger, willing to put the ball in tight windows. He’s playing a Carolina defense that has been incredibly opportunistic in creating takeaways. Likeway, Sellers has put the ball on the turf a few times this year and also has an interception. Let’s see which quarterback is able to protect the ball better.
Final prediction
The South Carolina fan experience has begun and this is the part where we find out if this year’s squad can handle success. Even if they can, this is a much tougher test than the first two games. That said, it feels like a game that the home crowd can affect. South Carolina 27, LSU 24.
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