Can Jaxson Dart be Lane Kiffin’s first 4,000-yard passer and the second in Ole Miss history?

Prolific offenses and video games numbers are relatively new to college football overall but 4,000-yard passers, and beyond, have been around and Ole Miss could soon have multiple quarterbacks reach the mark.

Ole Miss offenses have been high-octane since Lane Kiffin‘s arrival ahead of the 2020 season but even before the Rebels brought Kiffin to Oxford there have been signal callers to light up the record books.

Though currently only one former Rebel can lay claim to the only 4,000-yard passing season. Chad Kelly threw for 4,042 yards in 2015, which was only the third SEC quarterback to hit the milestone mark at the time.

Since Kelly there have been six SEC quarterbacks to surpass the 4,000-yard mark and all have come since the 2019 season. Stetson Bennett is the most recent, throwing for 4,128 yards in 2022.

All this brings us to Ole Miss quarterback Jaxson Dart and the 2024 season. Dart is heading into his third season with the Rebels and one filled with plenty of team and individual hype and expectations.

Kiffin has been in charge of college quarterbacks for 18 years of his coaching career but he has coached only one for three consecutive years. Dart will join Matt Barkley as the only other quarterback coached by Kiffin for more than two seasons.

Former Ole Miss signal caller Matt Corral spent two seasons under Kiffin in 2020 and 2021. Corral joins Southern Cal’s Matt Leinhart and Florida Atlantic’s Chris Robinson as the only quarterbacks to be coached by Kiffin for two seasons.

None of these quarterbacks cracked 4,000 yards under Kiffin’s watch, though some have come close. Leinhart threw for 3,815 yards in 2005 and Robinson threw for 3,701 yards in 2019.

Dart could etch his name in the Ole Miss record books even more if he could provide Kiffin his first quarterback to throw for at least 4,000 passing yards.

Odds of Ole Miss getting its second 4,000-yard passer in program history are good but Dart will have to take a large leap in year three.

In his first two seasons under Kiffin and offensive coordinator Charlie Weis, Jr., Dart has progressed positively. He threw for just under 3,000 yards in 2022 and last season he increased his total by 390 yards for 3,364 passing yards.

The simple math shows Dart would have to throw for 636 more yards this Fall to get to 4,000.

Breaking it down to a per-game average Dart would have to throw for 333.3 yards per game in the regular season. In last year’s regular season he averaged 248.8 yards per game, meaning Dart would have to increase by around 85 yards per game.

Of course 12 games and done is not the goal for Ole Miss, nor was its total of game last year. Dart boosted his overall season average last year to 258.8 with 379 yards in the Peach Bowl.

The Rebels are also looking well beyond a 12-game season in 2024 with the SEC Championship and College Football Playoff aspirations. So, Dart’s average could come down if they get a deep postseason run.

Just for argument’s sake, lets say Ole Miss plays in the SEC title game and makes it to the second round of the CFP, or a bye and to the semifinals. Playing 15 games brings the passing average down to 266.7 yards per game for Dart to hit the milestone mark.

Fun with numbers and nothing is certain until the Rebels kickoff the season, starting August 31 against Furman.

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