Beating Vegas Week 4
Fantastic games this week, but I’m not particularly interested in the premier matchups as betting propositions. The lines are well set and there’s really not as much data on the teams as we think we know. If you think you have a clean read on Notre Dame or Ohio State, you’re sharper than me. Or totally delusional. There are also some confounding variables. It’s obvious to me how Alabama can best cover against Ole Miss using Jalen Milroe in the QB run game and marrying his legs to play action deep shots.
There’s no evidence that it’s obvious to Tommy Rees, who is a dolt. So why bet on his learning curve?
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Colorado @ Oregon -20.5
Colorado @ Oregon -11 1H (laddered to -14)
Colorado @ Oregon -6.5 1Q
If you faded the Buffs with me last week, congratulations. The fade has just begun. Colorado’s defense has no ability to inflict negative plays and they lost their best cover corner (and #2 WR) against the Rams. That’s bad news when facing Bo Nix, whose improv can still make a bad Oregon play call into 2nd and 2 while a good play call means the fight song. Colorado can’t protect Sanders either. Now factor in a crazy home crowd eager to puncture the Deion hype.
What does that mean?
Early separation. I like the halftime and quarter bets more than the line, but I like the line OK. You can find all sorts of halftime numbers and I’m going to ladder from -11 up to -14 with commensurate payout increases. Quarter bets are prone to beta and generally idiotic, but Oregon 14-0, 10-3 or 17-7 after the 1st Q seems a lot more likely than not.
SMU @TCU, TCU offense under 35.5 points TCU team total
The conventional analysis is that these games are always crazy shootouts. Because they often are. Except that SMU appears to have a legit defense and they can run the ball against TCU’s mediocre front. That suggests a running clock and a cap on Frog offense that may have this game played in the high 20s or low 30s.
I’m alright with SMU +6.5 and I’m more than alright with SMU +7 before kickoff. More likely it goes the other way.
UCLA +4.5 @Utah
I think a lot of analysts have trouble differentiating between “played really hard against mediocre teams on television” and near elite (Utah is currently ranked 11th in the AP). I’m nervous about a freshman UCLA QB in a hostile stadium and betting against Utah at home is generally a terrible idea. I may regret ignoring the obvious caution signs, but I think UCLA would would beat Utah at a neutral site and they’re catching +4.5.
Other Thoughts
UCF +4.5 @KSU may be worth your time. KSU lost LB Daniel Green (their biggest, most physical run stopper) and KSU’s secondary blew several coverages at Mizzou. If Will Howard can’t run, you should be betting UCF money line.
Oregon State-Washington State will be the most fascinating underhyped game you can watch. Fantastic battle of contrasting styles with each team’s strength arrayed against the other’s vulnerability. Load up on the loser the following week and know that both teams are capable of upsetting the PAC’s elite.
If you must have Texas action, see if the line creeps back to -14 or bet in-game if Baylor gets an early score. Or bet Baylor’s team total under (you can get it anywhere between 17 and 20.5 with commensurate payouts).
Look hard at the under on Arizona State’s team total vs USC. Including the 1st half number.
What do y’all like?
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