Asking The ACC Analysts: Is FSU the pick to repeat as conference champions?

The production Florida State has lost from the team that won 13 games and the 2023 ACC Championship is staggering.

The Seminoles said goodbye to their starting quarterback, top running back, top two wide receivers, starting tight end and two starting offensive linemen. On defense, they lost three of their top defensive linemen, both starting linebackers, and three of their best defensive backs.

Florida State saw 10 players selected in the NFL Draft, and a handful of others signed free-agent contracts.

Yet when the conference media gather in Charlotte in three weeks for ACC Kickoff, there’s a good chance the Seminoles will be the preseason pick to repeat as conference champions.

Athlon Sports has tabbed FSU as its choice to win the ACC, ESPN’s Football Power Index has the Seminoles at No. 1 followed by Clemson, and Phil Steele has the Seminoles, Clemson and Miami as his top tier of ACC schools.

None of those prognostications come as a big surprise to ACC Network analysts Roddy Jones and Eric Mac Clain, who spoke with Warchant recently about their thoughts on the 2024 season.

“I think Coach [Mike] Norvell has earned the trust, or the assumption from us, that he’s going to have a loaded team and that he’s going to get those guys right,” MacLain said. “Seeing the additions they have made … I just have to assume he’s going to get those guys going.”

As Mac Lain noted, transfers will once again be a big part of the equation for the Seminoles, who also return several home-grown stars including Patrick Payton, Joshua Farmer, Shyheim Brown, Azareye’h Thomas, Darius Washington, Lawrance Toafili, Maurice Smith and others.

Newcomers on offense include quarterback DJ Uiagalelei, running backs Roydell Williams and Jaylin Lucas, receivers Malik Benson from Alabama and Jalen Brown from LSU, and a trio of offensive linemen — Richie Leonard, TJ Ferguson and Jacob Rizy.

On defense, the Seminoles brought in four defensive line transfers — Marvin Jones Jr., Sione Lolohea, Tomiwa Durojaiye and Grady Kelly — a pair of linebackers in Cam Riley and Shawn Murphy, and defensive backs Omarion Cooper, Earl Little Jr. and Davonte Brown.

Jones, a former star running back at Georgia Tech, said he isn’t always quick to assume transfers will make a major impact for their new schools. But after seeing the success Norvell has enjoyed with them in the past — and with Florida State bringing in 17 this offseason — Jones said it’s safe to assume they will help the Seminoles in a big way.

“If you have a bulk of guys, and all of them have potential, some of them are going to be good,” he said. “And I think Florida State falls into that category. Plus they have a track record, obviously.”

One concern Jones has about Florida State, however, is that many of the transfers who played major roles in 2023 had been in the system for multiple years. The one-year transfers like Braden Fiske, Keon Coleman and Jaheim Bell were the exception, while multi-year transfers such as Jordan Travis, Trey Benson, Jared Verse, Johnny Wilson, Jarrian Jones and others were the norm.

“There’s not going to be that institutional knowledge — what you’re supposed to do in certain situations, different adjustments — just lived experiences together,” Jones told Warchant. “Now, they may be talented enough to overcome that. But it’s hard to know exactly what they’ll be and what the ceiling is.”

Indeed, while Florida State could very well be the preseason pick to win the ACC, it won’t be a slam-dunk by any stretch. Miami and Clemson are both expected to be atop many ballots, and there is preseason hype about Louisville and N.C. State as well.

“I legitimately have five teams that, if things go right, can win it,” Mac Lain said. “And Florida State is certainly in the mix of that, if not No. 1 starting off right now.”

Louisville made a somewhat surprising run to the ACC Championship Game last season, thanks to a huge and productive transfer class. And the Cardinals have done it again, bringing in more than 25 transfers for the second consecutive offseason.

N.C. State didn’t bring in quite as many, but the Wolfpack landed several potential stars, including quarterback Grayson McCall, who passed for over 10,000 yards and 88 touchdowns (with just 14 interceptions) in four-plus seasons at Coastal Carolina. The Wolfpack also grabbed receiver Noah Rogers, who originally signed with Ohio State and was one of the nation’s top wideouts in the 2023 class.

“They’re a team you’ve really got to watch,” Mac Lain said. “I think they can really do some damage.”

Mac Lain, who was a standout offensive lineman at Clemson, is also still bullish on the Tigers despite their 9-4 record in 2023 and the fact that head coach Dabo Swinney remains reluctant to dabble in the transfer portal. Mac Lain believes Clemson will have one of the nation’s best defenses this fall, and if the offense shows improvement with second-year starting quarterback Cade Klubnik, he thinks the Tigers will be in the thick of the hunt.

“It’s a double-edged sword when you have the success Clemson has had,” Mac Lain said. “And Florida State knows about that from what they did in the ’90s. It’s hard to stay that good for a long time, especially in an ever-evolving landscape. Are there things Clemson could do, to maybe get that advantage, that they’re not? Sure. But Coach Swinney has his way, and he likes his process.

“To me, it’s going to come down to receivers and quarterback. Can those guys get separation? Can Cade make the throws? I think the defense is going to be top-five in the country, maybe better.”

When it comes to Florida State, Jones believes the Seminoles will have a strong feel for how good they are when they face his alma mater, Georgia Tech, in the season opener in Dublin.

The Yellow Jackets went just 7-6 last season, but they turned in several impressive performances in the second half of the year, especially on offense. They scored 46 and 45 points in back-to-back games against North Carolina and Virginia, they put up a respectable effort against Georgia before falling 31-23, and they knocked off UCF in their bowl game.

“I was very impressed with the way they finished last season,” Jones said. “They did such a good job of playing to their strengths and discovering more strengths over the course of the year. It should be an interesting game because they will have more figured out Week 1 offensively than Florida State will. The question is defensively, can they stop anybody, which is the big one from last year.”

Florida State Seminoles head coach Mike Norvell raises the ACC Championship trophy with his players after the game against the Louisville Cardinals at Bank of America Stadium. (Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports)

Talk about this story with other die-hard Florida State football fans on the Tribal Council.

The post Asking The ACC Analysts: Is FSU the pick to repeat as conference champions? appeared first on On3.