Around The Horn: Reflecting on LSU’s final regular season weekend
College baseball is a two horse sport.
Because of the structure of the postseason, two strong starting pitchers can lead a charge to Omaha. Last year it was Dylan DeLucia and Hunter Elliott. You remember Kumar Rocker and Jack Leiter. Anthony Ranaudo and Louis Coleman.
You have to hit the ball. You have to catch it. The bullpen can’t implode. And a break or two has to go your way.
All that said, two strong rotation pieces is a great place to start.
Paul Skenes has been as dominant as any pitcher in recent memory this year. He capped his regular season with another gem, seven innings of two-run ball highlighted by 12 strikeouts and just one walk. LSU improved to 12-2 when he starts, one of the losses being a lightning-shortened outing in South Carolina.
Skenes hasn’t been in question. Ty Floyd has.
While many around the program have lamented poor bullpen performances, Dylan Crews slowing down or scuffling defense, Floyd has kind of quietly emerged as a strong second option.
Three of his last five outings have been excellent and another was thrown off the rails by a 10 minute delay while umpires tried to figure out a balk.
In Oxford, Floyd worked into the ninth inning, allowing just three runs and walking one. He was great against Mississippi State, yielding just three hits and a lone run over six innings. He struck out a career high 10 and walked only one. Friday night he completed seven innings and gave up four runs, seven strikeouts, one walk.
Over his last five starts he’s struck out 36 and walked 11. He’s eating innings and giving LSU a great chance to win. The Tigers are 11-3 in Floyd starts this year.
He’s not Coleman or Rocker or even Elliott, but he’s pitching very well. That’s a great sign for LSU moving toward June.
I’m torn on Thatcher Hurd’s Thursday outing. On one hand, he was tasked with holding a two-run lead in the eighth and couldn’t. His defense failed him in the eighth, and a pair of long balls in the ninth tied the score. On the flip side, he competed his tail off, kept Georgia off the scoreboard in two innings of do or die baseball and then slammed the door on the lead in the 12th. He pitched with confidence in the strike zone. He showed some emotion.
It’s clear that Jay Johnson is going to go to Hurd in the first “big spot” of a weekend. The five innings he worked back on Thursday were more good than bad.
Gavin Guidry will be next up on that list. He had the bender working on Friday, tossing two clean frames to close out LSU’s 19th conference win.
After those two it’s very dicey. Saturday proved that.
Sam Dutton and Blake Money threw strikes and got hit. Christian Little didn’t throw strikes. Then Griffin Herring recorded five impressive outs. That’s the game you’re playing with the rest of the bullpen. You have to hope you call on the guy who has it that day. By the time LSU got to Herring, Georgia had hung a nine-spot.
Little won’t be called on in a high leverage spot next week if it’s at all avoidable. He just can’t be trusted to throw strikes. He’s walked 13 in his last 4.1 innings.
We’ll see how Johnson manages the SEC Tournament. My guess is that Wednesday will be a bullpen day. Skenes will go on full rest Thursday, and Floyd on Friday if they get there. In my opinion there isn’t much on the line this week. Johnson may feel differently.
On offense I think the story was the lineup shakeup at the top. Gavin Dugas is giving it everything he’s got, but he’s hurt. He doesn’t raise his throwing arm over shoulder height in the field, and his bat is ice cold. He’s eight for his last 41 (.195 BA). He has drawn 12 BB/HBP in that time frame, but there has to be more production in front of Crews and Tommy White.
The good news about LSU’s lineup is that the depth has always outweighed the intermittent slumps from individual players. While Crews was down a little, White was sizzling. Dugas has been skidding. Hayden Travinski looks like Mike Piazza.
Then out of nowhere Josh Pearson sends a lightning bolt out to right field on Thursday and drives in three more on Friday.
LSU scored seven or more 19 times in 29 league games. This season when they score seven or more, they’re 27-3.
It may not be the juggernaut we imagined on paper in January. It’s a team with some flaws and holes. But the star power is intimidating, and the results have been largely positive. They went 7-2-1 in league series. They were the only SEC team that was never swept.
The bugaboo, as I see it, is that only against Alabama did LSU keep the opponent under eight runs in all three games. There is always a game on the weekend where the pitching gets tagged. It’s going to be up to the offense that day in postseason play.
With a shiny Top 5 RPI, series wins over RPIs 2, 3, 12 and 16, 17 Quadrant 1 victories and a top 20 strength of schedule, a Top 8 seed feels secure.
The Road to Omaha goes through Alex Box Stadium. That’s really the only reason you play the first 56. Now on to Hoover to get some reps. Let’s hope the rain stays away.
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