Andy’s Analytics: Breaking down the numbers from Ohio State-Notre Dame

COLUMBUS — There were so many iconic moments from Ohio State’s dramatic, 17-14 win at Notre Dame this past weekend.

Buckeyes quarterback Kyle McCord piloting a 15-play, 65-yard, game-winning drive. Running back Chip Trayanum fighting his way into the end zone for the final score with one second left. Head coach Ryan Day holding nothing back in his postgame press conference.

The top-10 battle lived up to the hype in South Bend.

But Notre Dame, which controlled the clock and most of the second half as a whole, was inches away from victory, too. Ohio State was this close from heartbreak and serious soul searching.

Instead, the Fighting Irish are the ones answering questions, while the now-No. 4 Buckeyes are riding high into the off week with a 4-0 record.

Lettermen Row is going deeper than the score and those made-for-TV moments to break down the low-scoring duel between two of college football’s most historic programs.

Let’s get into the numbers from the one-score thriller as well as some Ohio State statistical trends that have emerged this season.

Kyle McCord was head scratching on first and second down but incredible on third and fourth down

McCord was 10-of-22 on first and second down for 78 yards on first and second down at Notre Dame. He was 11-of-15 on third and fourth down for 162 yards.

Granted it was on 1st-and-10 late in the second quarter that McCord made his best throw of the first half with a 15-yard rope to the end zone for wideout Emeka Egbuka, but Egbuka couldn’t maintain the touchdown catch.

Otherwise, though, first down is also when he dabbled in the horizontal game, resulting in a negative completion to Egbuka on the first play from scrimmage and, on the final drive, an incompletion behind running back TreVeyon Henderson. Plus, most notably, McCord’s potential game-ending interception came on a 1st-and-10 pass over the middle to tight end Cade Stover that Notre Dame safety DJ Brown baited.

Then, on the first 2nd-and-10 of the game-winning drive, he overthrew Henderson. His intentional grounding penalty soon after? Also on second down.

Yes, there was some good from McCord on the early downs — such as his rifle to a diving Harrison on 2nd-and-10 during the two-minute drill — but the numbers don’t lie. He was a different quarterback on third and fourth down. Borderline elite, even.

Graphic by Shawn Palmer/On3 Sports

McCord, of course, converted a 3rd-and-10, 4th-and-7 and 3rd-and-19 on the final series to usher Ohio State to the doorstep of the end zone. He did so with remarkable composure on do-or-die downs. His 21-yard completion to Egbuka on 3rd-and-19 was fit in between two Notre Dame defenders in the soft pocket of the Irish’s quarters coverage. Not many college quarterbacks can make that throw. McCord did.

So why this phenomenon?

“I don’t know if it has to do with the concepts. I’m not sure,” Day said. “We’ll look at it. I thought he made some nice throws on first and second down, but he played his best ball on on third down.

“The bottom line is he competed and won a game like this. And that’s the start.”

Overall, Ohio State was 10-of-17 (58.82%) on third down at Notre Dame. The Buckeyes came into the week tied for 94th with a third down conversion rate of 36.36%.

Short-yardage situations are once again an issue for Ohio State…

Day has been trying to prove the point the last two seasons that his Buckeyes are physical. He did Saturday night in South Bend — but only by a few inches.

Because if running back Chip Trayanum didn’t cross the goal line on his game-winning 3rd-and-Goal plunge, Day and Ohio State would be hearing echoes of the same narrative he hates.

The Buckeyes were 2-of-6 on third-and-short — third downs with four or fewer yards to gain — against Notre Dame. Those four unsuccessful attempts don’t even include a 4th-and-inches failed jet sweep to the boundary in the fourth quarter, a play call that would have been scrutinized for weeks, and maybe the whole season, had Ohio State lost.

The Buckeyes ran the ball four times on third down for a combined three yards. Running back Miyan Williams got stuffed on a 3rd-and-1 at the Notre Dame 1-yard line on Ohio State’s third drive of the game. The Buckeyes brought in their “Bison” package with extra tackle Luke Montgomery, plus defensive end Caden Curry as a fullback, but right tackle Josh Fryar couldn’t hold his black, and Williams was tackled short of the first down marker.

Then, on the play that set up the seemingly fateful jet sweep, running back TreVeyon Henderson was denied on 3rd-and-1 on the Notre Dame 11-yard line. Irish defensive end Javontae Jean-Baptiste — an Ohio State grad transfer — came off the edge unblocked and dragged down Henderson short of the line to gain.

Day said postgame that he’s “sick over those short yardages that we didn’t finish.”

Luckily for the Buckeyes, they got the one that mattered most, even if it was against a Notre Dame defense with only 10 men on the field.

OHIO STATE IN SHORT-YARDAGE SITUATIONS (1-4 YARDS TO GAIN)ATTEMPTS/CONVERSIONSWEEK 1 at Indiana1/7WEEK 2 vs. Youngstown State2/4WEEK 3 vs. Western Kentucky4/4WEEK 4 at Notre Dame 2/6Stat Source: PFF

It’s time we talk about Cade Stover

Cade Stover has close to half as many receptions in four games (17) as he had all last season (36). His 17 catches are as many as Marvin Harrison Jr. has recorded this year — they’re both tied for sixth in the Big Ten in that department right now.

Did you have that stat on your bingo card?

What’s more, Stover didn’t nab a single grab against FCS Youngstown State. So he’s averaging 5.7 receptions per game against Power Five competition this season.

There’s more: Stover leads Ohio State with 152 yards after the catch (YAC), according to Pro Football Focus. He’s 12 yards ahead of Egbuka in that category, in large part thanks to five missed tackles forced. Stover is fourth nationally right now in YAC among all tight ends, per PFF.

To put that in perspective, the veteran tight end logged 211 YAC all last season.

And the only Buckeyes receiver to move the sticks more than Stover so far is Egbuka. Stover has picked up 12 first downs — including four at Notre Dame, three of which were on third down — and Egbuka has notched 14 first downs.

TIGHT END YAC LEADERS IN 2023YAC TOTAL1. Brock Bowers (Georgia)2192. Ja’Tavion Sanders (Texas)1753. Isaac Rex (BYU)1754. Cade Stover (Ohio State)152Stat Source: PFF

Notre Dame attacked Davison Igbinosun, avoided Denzel Burke

It’s started. Ohio State cornerback Denzel Burke is getting the shutdown corner treatment. In other words, Notre Dame was the first team this season to not throw his way much this year.

Burke entered Week 4 as the only FBS cornerback who had been targeted 17 times with a reception percentage below 30% this season, according to PFF. Over the first three games, Burke allowed just five catches for 66 yards while tallying five pass breakups, an interception and a forced fumble.

After being targeted at five or more times each of those games, Burke was thrown at once in South Bend. He gave up a reception of seven yards to Notre Dame wideout Jayden Thomas, and that was it.

Meanwhile, opposite of Burke, Davison Igibinosun was targeted a team-high six times against the Irish, according to PFF. He gave up four catches for 23 yards and a score.

Igbinosun had a rough go of it on the second of Notre Dame’s two marathon touchdown drives. First he got away with what could have been called defensive pass interference on a deep Sam Hartman pass intended for Notre Dame wide receiver Rico Flores Jr. Then a handsy Igbinosun was called for holding on Tobias Merriweather three plays later. Flores got payback on Igbinosun near the goal line, losing the 6-foot-2 corner on his release and getting open for an easy, go-ahead touchdown.

Igibinosun has been good at not letting things get behind him this year, but he’s sometimes too physical, and he’s given up a team-high 16 catches and been targeted 26 times, eight more times than any other Buckeyes defender. Only three other Big Ten corners have been targeted more than him so far.

Missed tackles, YAC allowed and continued third down defensive struggles

The Ohio State defense made timely stops and, ultimately, held Notre Dame to just 14 points, twice turning the Irish over on downs.

But the Buckeyes missed 14 tackles after missing a combined 20 the first three weeks of the season, according to PFF. They also allowed 94 yards after the catch (YAC), or 5.52 YAC per reception.

The previous week against Western Kentucky, Ohio State gave up 142 YAC, or 6.45 YAC per reception. Granted it was against a pass-averse Indiana team and FCS Youngstown State, but Ohio State conceded only 93 combined YAC the first two weeks of the season.

Most importantly, though, third down defense remains a concern for defensive coordinator Jim Knowles’ unit. While it’s important to also note that Ohio State stopped Notre Dame twice on fourth down, the Irish going 5-of-10 on third down can’t be ignored.

The Buckeyes are 44th nationally in opponent third down conversion rate (35.71%). But this is the second time in four games, Ohio State has allowed its opponent to convert on half or close to half of its third downs. Youngstown State was 7-of-15 on third down against the Buckeyes, and Notre Dame was 5-of-10 on third down over the weekend, largely thanks to four Hartman completions in those situations.

The Ohio State defense is still searching for more consistency on third down.

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