ANALYSIS: Inside Athlon Sports’ prediction for Miami Hurricanes 2023 football team
There are plenty of doubters as the Miami Hurricanes enter the 2023 season, with the general consensus a win total over-under of 7.5 (as per DraftKings). The Canes also were given a wins-losses projection by ESPN’s FPI of 7.8-4.5, and the team has a 94.3 percent chance of reaching six or more wins per those analytics and a 6.3 percent shot of winning the ACC. The playoff percent chance? Well, that stands at just 0.1 percent.
Another date point: Miami checks in at +15000 to win the national title per the DraftKings Sportsbook. That’s tied for 28th in the nation with Baylor, Florida and NC State. Four of Miami’s opponents rank ahead of the canes in national title odds: Florida State +1800, Clemson +2200, Texas A&M +5000, UNC +10000. Other opponents: NC State is tied with Miami at +15000, Louisville is a notch below at +20000 and UVA is +50000. So, in other words, 7-5 or 8-4 seem most likely.
But then there are the renowned national publications Athlon Sports and Lindy’s.
Each has its own dynamic ranking system, and we are going to break them down one at a time with a look inside each. Today we start with Athlon’s.
THE DATA
The publication picks Miami 30th in the nation and fourth in the ACC with an 8-4 record (5-3 ACC). We assume those losses would be to Texas A&M, FSU, Clemson and North Carolina.
The publication points to “potentially glaring holes” on defense as an issue, no doubt reflecting some of the defensive tackle, linebacker and cornerback depth concerns.
With that said, Athlon’s sums up that “the team should be much better than it was a year ago,” pointing to the injuries that hurt UM during the season (QB Tyler Van Dyke, several on the O line, for starters).
“The Hurricanes are still a few years from competing at the highest level,” the publication stats, adding “They need to string together a few more strong recruiting classes.”
THE MIAMI OPPONENTS
When it comes to Miami’s opponents?
Texas A&M is the only nonconference opponent that really bears watching, with the others expected to be easy victories. And the Aggies are ranked No. 20 and projected to finish with an 8-4 overall record and go 4-4 in the SEC. But Texas A&M coach Jimbo Fisher is also listed among the seven coaches “On The Hot Seat.” So maybe a Miami win in that game would make it a sizzling seat.
As for the ACC schedule:
*Florida State is the pick to win the conference (11-2 projected record, 7-1 ACC) and is ranked No. 7 in the nation.
*Clemson is ranked No. 13 and picked to finish second in the ACC with a final record of 10-3 (6-2 ACC).
*North Carolina is ranked No. 25 overall and picked to finish third in the ACC, just ahead of Miami. The projected record: 8-4 overall, 5-3 ACC.
*Louisville is ranked No. 40 overall and is picked to finish seventh in the ACC with a 7-5 overall record (5-3 ACC).
*NC State is ranked No. 46 and picked eighth in the ACC with a 7-5 overall record (4-4 in conference play).
*Georgia Tech is picked to finish 11th in the ACC with a 5-7 overall record and 3-5 conference mark.
*BC and Virginia are picked to finish 1-7 in ACC play.
So you can see it’s a case of the haves and have-nots with Miami trailing UNC but ahead of Louisville and NC State perception-wise.
If that holds you’d expect the Canes to finish 8-4, as Athlon’s projects.
The projected bowl game? That would be the ReliaQuest Bowl against South Carolina.
Also of note: The publication lists 10 players on Heisman Watch, and Miami will face three of them – UNC QB Drake Maye, Clemson QB Cade Klubnik and FSU QB Jordan Travis.
HONORS
Athlon’s has two Miami Hurricanes on its preseason First Team All-ACC list: safety Kam Kinchens as expected off his All-American season, and then a surprise on offense with OL Zion Nelson making the cut. Nelson, of course, is a former starter and high level performer who is coming off several knee issues. If we were going to pick an All-ACC lineman from Miami? We’d have gone with Javion Cohen, the Alabama transfer.
Kinchens is also projected as a First Team All-American again.
On the second team: RB Henry Parrish, the aforementioned Cohen and DL Akheem Mesidor. Parrish is an interesting inclusion given his struggles last year and the possibility he will yield big reps to highly touted true freshman Mark Fletcher, Don Chaney or others.
On the third team was DT Leonard Taylor, who we’d argue should have been on the first or second teams, as well as PK Andy Borregales.
FSU had seven first team All-ACC preseason picks and Clemson had five.
The Canes also somehow have the third-best running backs room out of the ACC’s 14 teams (behind FSU and Clemson) despite the issues last year. The team’s reshaped OL is ranked No. 2 in the conference with the DL No. 3. The WRs and DBs are No. 5 with the LBs No. 7 and the QB position is also, surprisingly considering Tyler Van Dyke’s potential, No. 7. No Canes position unit is ranked among the top 10 in the nation.
While you won’t find any Canes listed among the Breakout Players, you will find one Mami player listed among Top Transfers: Cohen. “
THE ANONYMOUS QUOTE
Perhaps most interestingly is an opposing ACC assistant coach (unnamed) that tells Athlon’s “No one can really explain why they looked so bad last season. Everyone in the league was terrified of them coming out of two-a-0days, and then we all saw how terrible they were that first month.” The assistant mentions Josh Gattis and says that “they took a darkhorse Heisman candidate (Van Dyke) and ruined his game.”
He goes on to say “This is a good roster, a top-half roster in this league for sure. I think it’s really interesting that both new coordinators are known for being aggressive with their calls. The kids could really feed off of that if they get it going. They need better line play on both sides for that to happen.”
Those remarks are certainly on point.
And they show the kind of improvement Miami will need on both sides to surprise people nationally in 2023.
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