Analysis: Highlighting the three most pivotal games on the Miami Hurricanes football schedule

If you look back at last year, you can – retroactively – point to games that really determined the course of Miami’s season. The first was Texas A&M, the first true early-season test. The Canes lost, 17-9, and in retrospect it seems obvious now to say that was the initial sign that the Josh Gattis offense wasn’t going to be a success.

The second pivotal game? In hindsight it was the one right after that loss to the Aggies. That game, what should have been an easy win vs. Middle Tennessee State at home, turned into a blistering 45-31 loss. It revealed what we found out throughout the rest of the season was true – the right culture was not yet ingrained in a roster that Cristobal had taken over earlier in the year, and this was not a team that was able to rebound from the tough loss in College Station.

The third pivotal game?

In 2022 we’d argue there wasn’t one. We really found out from those above two games all we needed to know. Based on those it was perhaps wishful thinking that Miami could end with a winning record or compete with teams like FSU and Clemson, which both blew out UM. The team’s only wins the rest of the way were against bottom half conference opponents Virginia Tech, Virginia (in 4OT, no less) and Georgia Tech. All three of those teams finished with losing records, a combined 11-22.

So what are the key games as we look ahead to this coming season?

We’ve identified three that we think … when you look back a year from now .. can be pointed to as defining moments in the 2023 Miami football season.

The first will be, like last year, against Texas A&M. This time Miami has the Aggies at home, and the early line on the game has UM a 6.5-point home underdog (per DraftKings Sportsbook). We view Texas A&M as the team’s fourth-toughest game of the season, with UNC, Clemson and FSU the toughest. So if Miami finds a way to win that game perhaps a 9-3 season or better could be in store. That would be pretty darn good considering the over-under for wins for this team set at 7.5 per FanDuel.

Texas A&M QB Connor Weigman (Photo by John Rivera/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

Last season the Aggies were expected to be a top 10 team … but wound up going 5-7 (2-6 SEC). One of those wins, of course, was against Miami. So what is UM up against? On offense Bobby Petrino as the new coordinator, and QB Conner Weigman is back after playing only five games (896 yards, 8 TDs, 0 INTs). This is an offense that was stagnant in 2022, averaging just 22.8 points per game and 360.8 yards. But the attack has almost all its pieces returning including WRs Ainias Smith (291 yards, 2 TDs in 4 games, coming back off injury), Evan Stewart (649 yards, 2 TDs) and Moose Muhammad (610 yards, 4 TDs). On defense this was a strength last year, with the team allowing an average 21.2 points and 365.0 yards per game. There’s plenty of talent back up front in DEs Fadil Diggs (5 TFL, 3 sacks in 8 games) and Shemar Stewart (23 tackles, 3.5 TFL, 4 QB hurries) along with DTs Shemar Turner (4.5 TFL) and Walter Nolan (2.5 TFL) along with McKinnley Jackson coming back off injury. There’s no letup at the next level of D, with LB Chris Russell (66 tackles, 7 TFL) and LB Edgerrin Cooper (61 tackles, 8 TFL) returning, plus the addition of Jackson State transfer Jurriente Davis. The team gets back leading tackler Demani Richardson at safety (he had 73 tackles and an INT), but doesn’t have much back at corner off last season’s team.

So this should give a really good idea of just where Miami stands against a pretty good SEC opponent. It also will be the first test of the new offense and defense under Shannon Dawson and Lance Guidry. So circle that one.

And this year, regardless of the outcome of the Texas A&M game, Miami will win its next one against total overmatched Bethune-Cookman. And there really should be no issues beating Temple or Georgia Tech, both teams with lesser level talent.

Which brings us to the next key game, at North Carolina.

This will be a young team’s first real road test (the only other road game to this point will be at Temple, which finished last year 3-9).

UNC will be the first massive challenge for Guidry, since no offense prior to this is expected to match North Carolina’s explosiveness behind QB Drake Maye, who last year threw for 4,321 pass yards and 38 TDs with 698 rush yards and seven more scores. This might be a game where Miami has to just outscore the Tar Heels – last year UNC allowed 30.8 points and 436.5 yards per game. And it won’t help that the secondary takes a hit with the losses of DBs Storm Duck (3 INTs), Tony Grimes (7 PBU) and Cam’Ron Kelly (49 tackles, INT). So Tyler Van Dyke & Co. could have a chance to shine and put up some big numbers down the field. Miami will enter this game at worst 4-1 unless there is really a major disaster vs. Miami (Ohio), Bethune-Cookman, Temple or Georgia Tech, so how the team fares vs. UNC will have a bearing on what we can expect to see in the game that follows against Clemson at Hard Rock Stadium. And it’s not Florida State either, as important as that rivalry game is for recruiting and UM fans. Miami’s already a double-digit underdog in each of those, and while it would be a moral victory to stay close to the end and even better to pull off a shocker win, it’s tough to say we are expecting that off a 5-7 season as Mario Cristobal tries to rebuild this roster.

Drake Maye (Grant Halverson/Getty Images)

It’s one step at a time, right?

Which is why our third-most pivotal game this year is actually at NC State. The Wolfpack has a strong team and has won nine games in three of the last five years. Miami is going to need to take that next step to eight or nine wins before jumping up to be a 10-win team or playoff contender. And that starts with showing you can beat teams in the upper part of the ACC, not necessarily the top two or three teams. And that’s the Wolfpack. Winning this game on the road would give Miami momentum heading into the game at FSU the following weekend. And it also would mean this should be a team that wins eight or nine games, since Louisville is a level below NC State as we see things right now (the UL game comes the weekend after FSU at Hard Rock Stadium).

A sense of what NC State has returning? A year ago the offense averaged 24.3 points and 339.8 yards per game while allowing just 19.2 points and 326.9 yards. And the offense could get a bump up with Robert Anae taking over as offensive coordinator … and having QB Brennan Armstrong join him as a transfer from Virginia. The last time Anae coached Armstrong in 2021, all the QB did was throw for 4,449 yards with 31 TDs and 10 INTs, adding 251 rush yards and nine more scores. At RB Jordan Houston is back off a 544-yard season, and WR Keyon Lesane (342 yards) also returns. On defense several key player return to a really strong unit that will test Miami and Dawson. That includes LB Payton Wilson, who had 82 tackles, 12.5 TFL and 4.5 sacks, first-team All-ACC cornerback Aydan White (4 INTs, 9 PBU) and CB Shyheim Battle (2 INTs), and DEs Davin Vann 8 TFL, 4.5 sacks) and C.J. Clark (3 sacks, 4 QB hurries).

So if you’re looking for pivotal games in 2023 you don’t have to circle FSU or Clemson.

Let’s start with Texas A&M, North Carolina and NC State. Win two of those three and we think you will be able to, at the end of the day, view this as a successful season off last year’s woes.

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