ANALYSIS: Closer look inside the Miami Hurricanes’ remaining opponents shows great shot at 10 wins … and maybe more

Off a 5-7 season, the Miami Hurricanes are off to a torrid 4-0 start and No. 17 national ranking. The big question now, of course, is if the undefeated run can continue. So, with that in mind, CaneSport is taking a closer look at the data points of the remaining opponents. We’re attempting to find the “real” vs. the “hype.”

But first, let’s start with the hype. In other words, the national rankings. What you find is that of the 37 teams ranked in the AP poll, four of the eight remaining opponents are on the list. Florida State is ranked No. 5, North Carolina No. 14, Louisville No. 25 and Clemson among others receiving votes at No. 33. The Coaches’ Poll has FSU No. 5, UNC 13th, Miami 17th and Louisville 25th with Clemson among others receiving votes at No. 31.

The ESPN College Football Power Index? Miami is No. 15 and projected with 9.9 wins. The only opponent higher is FSU at No. 10 with 11.2 wins. The next biggest challenge per FPI is Clemson at No. 17 with 7.9 projected wins (which means the 3-2 team will lose two more games the rest of the way in a schedule that includes Miami, NC State, Notre Dame and North Carolina). Also of note: North Carolina isn’t far behind at No. 21 (9.5 projected wins) with Louisville No. 27 (9.2 wins) and then a huge drop to the next opponent, NC State, at No. 52 (5.6 wins). That same index (which isn’t based on projected wins but on a variety of factors), by the way, projects the Canes with an 18.5 percent chance of winning the conference and a 9.5 percent chance of making the playoffs … with a 3.4 percent chance to make the national title game and 1.2 percent chance of winning it all.

So go ahead and dream.

But let’s go back to reality and look inside actual numbers.

Is the national title chase real?

It’s certainly hard to say from the Miami side to this point, since the Canes have only played one “real” opponent in Texas A&M. With underwhelming 2-3 Georgia Tech up next, North Carolina will be the second real test of the season in a couple of weekends.

The purpose of this story is to look at each opponent and what their statistics are saying to see if they are beatable should Miami continue to play at a very high level. So let’s get right to that:

VS. GEORGIA TECH OCT. 7

Results: 2-3 record including 39-34 home loss to Louisville, 48-23 loss at Ole Miss, 30-16 win at Wake Forest and the most recent 38-27 debacle at home vs. Bowling Green

Key Numbers: No. 19 in nation in total offense (467.4 yards), No. 55 in rush offense (167.4 yards), No. 17 passing offense (300.0 yards), No. 49 scoring offense (32.4 points), No. 113 total defense (427.8 yards), No. 128 rush defense (224.2 yards), No. 38 passing yards allowed (203.6), No. 65 pass efficiency defense. Also No. 105 in third down conversion defense, No. 114 in red zone offense and No. 98 in time of possession.

The bottom line: Georgia Tech joins Virginia as probably the worst remaining defenses that Miami will face, and the Yellow Jackets’ D is in chaos after changing its defensive play caller following last weekend’s game. The Yellow Jackets’ offense has some bite behind Haynes King, but it will be very difficult for the team to stop the Canes’ offense.

CaneSport’s percent chance of winning projection: 90

AT NORTH CAROLINA OCT. 14

Results: 4-0 record including 31-17 win at South Carolina, double-OT victory against App State at home, 41-24 against Pitt before last weekend’s bye.

Key Numbers: No. 24 in nation in total offense (464.0 yards), No. 56 in rush offense (167.2 yards), No. 20 passing offense (296.8 yards), No. 34 scoring offense (35.8 points), No. 61 total defense (363.0 yards), No. 51 rush defense (124.2 yards), No. 83 passing yards allowed (238.8), No. 18 pass efficiency defense. Also No. 2 in third down conversion percentage and No. 29 in red zone defense.

The bottom line: UNC hasn’t really beaten anybody of substance yet, so you can argue that Miami has a much bigger win than the Tar Heels with UM’s defeat of Texas A&M. With that said, this is certainly a North Carolina offense that scares you behind a QB projected as a top NFL pick in Drake Maye. But also consider that Maye has 5 TDs and 4 INTs in the team’s four games (along with three rushing scores). So it’s not like this offense has been totally unstoppable. But the defense is improved from last year, which is what really caused issues for UNC in 2022. The team plays a decent 4-1 Syracuse team this weekend, and if North Carolina wins then it’ll likely be a battle of undefeated teams in a huge, huge game.

CaneSport’s percent chance of winning projection: 50

VS. CLEMSON OCT. 21

Results: 3-2 record including opening 28-7 loss at Duke and a 31-24 overtime loss at home vs. FSU. The team has otherwise beaten lower level Charleston Southern and FAU before handing Syracuse its first loss last weekend, 31-14 at Syracuse.

Key Numbers: No. 27 in nation in total offense (457.2 yards), No. 38 in rush offense (184.4 yards), No. 39 passing offense (272.8 yards), No. 35 scoring offense (35.2 points), No. 9 total defense (266.4 yards), No. 11 rush defense (83.2 yards), No. 23 passing yards allowed (183.2), No. 10 pass efficiency defense. Also No. 125 in red zone offense and No. 44 in red zone defense.

The bottom line: This isn’t the same Clemson team that’s made a habit of cruising through the ACC schedule and playing for national titles. There are issues with receivers getting open and making plays against the better opponents, but Cade Klubnik has good stats with 11 TDs and two INTs, completing 65.4 percent of his throws. The defense has shown some letdowns against the better offenses (Duke had 199 rush yards and FSU’s Jordan Travis passed for 299 yards with two TDs), but overall has been solid. The biggest issue for the Tigers are the final two stats under “Key Numbers.” No. 125 in red zone offense vs. 27 in total offense, and No. 44 in red zone defense vs. No. 9 in total defense. That’s how you lose games. We still wouldn’t say that the Canes have the overall more talented roster on paper, but the way Miami is playing should make this a game that UM can escape with a win at home.

CaneSport’s percent chance of winning projection: 50

VS. VIRGINIA OCT. 28

Results: 0-5 record with losses to Tennessee (49-13), James Madison (36-35), Maryland (42-14), NC State (24-21) and at BC last weekend (27-24).

Key Numbers: No. 111 in nation in total offense (328.0 yards), No. 126 in rush offense (75.2 yards), No. 50 passing offense (252.8 yards), No. 105 scoring offense (21.4 points), No. 107 total defense (412.0 yards), No. 112 rush defense (183.0 yards), No. 69 passing yards allowed (229.0), No. 90 pass efficiency defense. Also No. 122 in red zone defense and No. 108 in first downs defense.

The bottom line: You can point to the last couple of losses by three points to NC State and BC and say that maybe Virginia is getting a little bit better, but the reality is this is just a bad team. On offense the Cavaliers struggle to get anything going running or passing, and the defense rivals Georgia Tech as the worst remaining on the schedule (allowing 35.6 points and 412.0 yards per game). This should be a very easy win.

CaneSport’s percent chance of winning projection: 95

AT NC STATE NOV. 4

Results: 3-2 record with losses at home to Notre Dame (45-24) and at home to Louisville (13-10). The Wolfpack also barely escaped lowly Virginia, 24-21 and otherwise has only defeated Connecticut and VMI.

Key Numbers: No. 97 in nation in total offense (345.2 yards), No. 68 in rush offense (151.0 yards), No. 105 passing offense (194.2 yards), No. 89 scoring offense (25.4 points), No. 34 total defense (322.0 yards), No. 18 rush defense (95.6 yards), No. 63 passing yards allowed (226.4), No. 78 pass efficiency defense. Also No. 15 in third down defense and No. 108 in red zone defense.

The bottom line: The team’s offense has struggled, leading NC State to name MJ Morris its starting QB this week (Brennan Armstrong joining his former coordinator failed, with Armstrong throwing five TDs with six INTs). If there’s a concern from a Miami perspective it’s the defense, which is probably one of the more talented groups in the conference. NC State is only allowing 95.6 rush yards but has been susceptible a bit to the pass (226.4 pass yards per game with 8 TDs against). Even though NC State hasn’t beaten anyone of substance yet, this game is on the road and if Morris can spark this offense it could be a tougher game.

CaneSport’s percent chance of winning projection: 65

AT FLORIDA STATE, NOV 11

Results: 4-0 including opening win vs. LSU in Orlando, 45-24, at BC (31-29) and at Clemson (31-24 in overtime) before a bye last weekend. The other win was against lower level Southern Miss (66-13).

Key Numbers: No. 46 in nation in total offense (427.2 yards), No. 79 in rush offense (147.8 yards), No. 33 passing offense (279.5 yards), No. 10 scoring offense (43.2 points), No. 95 total defense (400.8 yards), No. 57 rush defense (128.8 yards), No. 116 passing yards allowed (272.0), No. 40 pass efficiency defense. Also No. 85 in third down conversion percentage and tied for first in red zone offense, plus No. 19 in red zone defense.

The bottom line: This is Miami’s most difficult remaining game per the rankings, but this is an FSU team that came within a hair of losing to Clemson on a chip-shot field goal that missed toward the end of regulation, and FSU also could have lost at Boston College if the Eagles were able to mount a final drive into field goal range. The metrics show that FSU also hasn’t been real good on third downs if Miami can put the Noles in those situations, and FSU struggles to stop the pass. So this isn’t a team that seems to really be dominating week in and week out despite the hype surrounding Florida State and star QB Jordan Travis (who has thrown 10 TDs with one INT and has added a pair of rushing scores). Is FSU beatable? Absolutely. But this will be a very tough one on the road.

CaneSport’s percent chance of winning projection: 35

VS. LOUISVILLE NOV. 18

Results: 5-0 record, which perhaps surprises a lot of people given this was expected to be a so-so team entering the season. But the wins haven’t exactly been against top tier opponents – Georgia Tech (39-34), Murray State (56-0), Indiana (21-14), BC (56-28) and at NC State (13-10).

Key Numbers: No. 11 in nation in total offense (494.8 yards), No. 29 in rush offense (193.8 yards), No. 16 passing offense (301.0 yards), No. 21 scoring offense (37.0 points), No. 37 total defense (327.8 yards), No. 33 rush defense (109.6 yards), No. 55 passing yards allowed (218.2), No. 46 pass efficiency defense. Also No. 64 in red zone offense and No. 5 in red zone defense.

The bottom line: Louisville only beat a pretty bad Georgia Tech team by five points, and narrowly escaped at NC State last weekend (the Wolfpack led 10-0 at halftime). Is this a decent Cardinal team? Absolutely. But while the statistical rankings are high on offense and defense, that’s also a reflection of not playing very good teams so far. And the offensive line has holes that Miami can exploit (gave up four sacks and eight tackles for loss last weekend, for instance). The Louisville defense has been surprisingly good with only 327.8 yards allowed per game, but again this just isn’t a team that has faced a top offense yet … and Georgia Tech had 34 points and 488 yards against Louisville. So a lot remains to be seen.

CaneSport’s percent chance of winning projection: 60

AT BOSTON COLLEGE NOV. 24

Results: 2-3 record with losses at home vs. Northern Illinois (27-24 in OT) and FSU (31-29) as well as at Louisville (56-28) and narrow home wins vs. Holy Cross (31-28) and a bad Virginia team (27-24).

Key Numbers: No. 64 in nation in total offense (398.6 yards), No. 53 in rush offense (168.2 yards), No. 71 passing offense (230.4 yards), No. 74 scoring offense (27.8 points), No. 88 total defense (394.8 yards), No. 97 rush defense (163.0 yards), No. 74 passing yards allowed (231.8), No. 128 pass efficiency defense. Also No. 11 in scoring defense, No. 85 in turnover margin, No. 107 in third down conversion defense and No. 129 in penalties per game.

The bottom line: This is a pretty bad BC team notwithstanding the scare it put into Florida State. The team lost to Northern Illinois and struggled to beat lower level Holy Cross and Virginia. The defense in particular has holes that Miami should be able to exploit, and the run game is nothing special. So really it’s just a case of getting after QB Thomas Castellanos (10 TDs, 4 INTs, 218.4 pass yards per game), which might not be too hard with BC’s offensive line not a real good unit (team has allowed eight sacks and 24 tackles for loss this season).

CaneSport’s percent chance of winning projection: 85

Add up all of the above and what do you find? That if Miami plays consistent football there’s no reason the team won’t get to nine wins, which is remarkable in itself off a 5-7 season. And then the only games we have as 50-50 or worse are Florida State, North Carolina and Clemson. Win one of those and you’re looking at 10 wins for the second time in the last 20 years; win two and you’re looking at an ACC title game berth and chance to make the playoffs.

Is it too early to start looking that far ahead?

Maybe.

But what we’ve laid out clearly shows there are no unbeatable teams remaining on the schedule.

Now it’s on the coaches and players to make what once might have seemed like a dream into reality.

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