ANALYSIS: Changing landscape of ACC and college sports means turbulence for schools and big money for players

The ACC Spring meetings were held this week but with some loud voices certainly in the room. The ACC, Clemson and Florida State remain in the midst of lawsuits over the grant of rights agreement that is supposed to keep ACC schools in their TV contract with ESPN through 2036. Only the future of the league itself is at stake. A victory by those schools would mean everyone in the ACC is suddenly a free agent.

Another piece of litigation, known as the House vs. NCAA, is also looming on the horizon, ready to create a world where the University of Miami and other universities around the country are on the hook for $18-20 million in annual revenue sharing compensation to athletes within their programs. The bulk of that money will obviously go to football players, but athletes in all sports are expected to benefit.

College football and college sports in general have changed forever with the advent of NIL and open transfers and dysfunctional conferences like the ACC, which has no idea what the future holds.

And the craziest thing? This is just the beginning.

These parameters for the future of the game are taking form as schools prepare to opt into that revenue-sharing model at their discretion. But may God help those that don’t opt in. Their sports programs would become non-competitive and rendered pretty much meaningless.

That is why the amount of money that schools receive from their conference is so significant and why the courtroom battles continue. The big bills aren’t going anywhere nor is the fact that schools are expected to compete with others in the SEC and Big 10 that are receiving about $40 million more in revenue.

Miami has and is preparing for all of this as well as any program in the country and it has become a focal point of Athletic Director Dan Radakovich’s daily agenda. Of course, the Hurricanes would like to see ACC revenues rise. But to this point Miami has chosen to sit on the sidelines and allow the pending litigation to run its course, to let Clemson and FSU be the guinea pigs at the courthouse.

Meanwhile, major conferences like the ACC have been teaming with their member schools to come up with a game plan for future finances.

At Texas A&M, new athletic director Trev Alberts made national news when he announced cuts of more than 12 staff members in a “reorganization related to existing and emerging threats to our business model.” Alberts called it a “business decision.”

Missouri put its AD on notice that it might have to renegotiate his compensation as a result of pending litigation and legislation.

There has been no such noise out of Miami, where the work goes on behind the scenes and the necessary university commitment appears in place.

One sign of adjustment is that the Hurricanes, along with other schools, are scrapping plans for major facility enhancements. That $200 million future home of Hurricanes football that was discussed a few months back is presently on the backburner, to be replaced right now by a more reasonable expansion of the Soffer indoor practice facility and weight room facilities.

The truth is that future finances are a moving target right now and that has a lot of people very rattled. Drastic change does that. If you are operating on say a $100 million dollar budget, how do you get by on $80 million if you now have to allocate $20 million to revenue sharing with athletes?

The answer is probably that schools will have to find a way to fund the gaps themselves. At Miami, that source could come from increased tuition and student fees or the continued use of profits from the U Health hospital system. Or maybe ESPN solves the entire problem by renegotiating ACC terms.

The NCAA, fighting for its continued relevance and existence, could choose to take the House case to trial and risk what some have estimated would be at least $4 billion in back pay to athletes. That is not expected to happen.

The impending settlement would include about $2.3 billion in back pay to athletes from 2016-2021 that would be paid in installments of $230 million a year for 10 years by the NCAA via annual payments by member schools and revenues from the NCAA basketball tournament. Individual schools will be responsible for their budgets moving forward.

NCAA President Charlie Baker met with coaches and athletic directors at the ACC spring meetings to discuss the future. The settlement talks and the accompanying revenue-sharing agreement was only part of his presentation.

“I think everybody would like to have to be in a position where they feel like they could plan,” Baker said, “In the current world we live in, planning is very hard to do.”

The start of the NIL Era in the summer of 2021 jumpstarted this transformative time in college sports. All this legal action accelerated it and bringing everything in-house will have its own set of initial challenges. But Baker told everyone at the ACC meetings that he expects this reform to come out just fine on the other side.

“You can invest in your athletes, you can invest in your programs, you can invest in your future, and have some idea about what the ground is going to be like underneath you,” Baker said. “I think it creates a lot of stability and clarity for schools, and it makes it possible for all of us to start thinking about what the next act really will look like instead of feeling like you’re just waiting for the next shoe to drop.”

There may still be a role for collectives, especially if a discussed salary cap becomes reality. A bigger issue is making sure all teams in a conference spend enough to maintain the competitiveness of the product.

So many issues, so little time to work it all out. But there are baby steps in the right direction.

Perhaps the strangest thing of this week’s ACC meetings was seeing Cal, Stanford and SMU with seats in the room for the first time.

Cal and Stanford had nowhere else to go after the implosion of the Pac-12. SMU was so desperate to achieve power-conference status that it’s foregoing ACC television revenue for several years just to be a part of the league.

So you ended up with two schools in the room at the Ritz Carlton Amelia Island who are trying to sue their way out of the league while three new members were being welcomed in with open arms.

Different times indeed.

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