ANALYSIS: Breaking down why Miami Hurricanes were picked with 6th-best odds to win ACC … but 4th-best of conference teams in total wins

If you’re a Miami Hurricanes fan, odds are you aren’t particularly happy coming off a 5-7 season.

And the odds are also now officially stacked against UM to win the ACC title in 2023. Vegas Insider has revealed its ACC Championship opening picks, and places Miami in sixth place out of the 14 teams … and the Canes are essentially in a tie with seventh place Pittsburgh (Miami’s at +2200 and the Panthers are right there as well at +2300).

So the so-called betting world experts are expecting a middle-of-the-pack Miami team. But hey, that’s what shocking the world is all about, right?

In the ACC’s new championship format the Atlantic and Coastal divisions have given way to a wide open system that will reward the conference’s top two teams. And it’s not perennial favorite Clemson at the top of the odds chart this year. That honor goes to Florida State at +165. The Tigers aren’t far behind at +190, with North Carolina a more distant +650.

And yes, Miami plays all three of those teams in a one-month span from Oct. 14-Nov. 11.

Louisville (+1100) and NC State (+1500) also rank ahead of the Canes, and UM faces those teams sandwiched around the FSU game.

The aforementioned Pitt isn’t on Miami’s schedule this year, and neither is Duke (+3700, 9th place), Syracuse (+4800, 10th place), Wake Forest (+5000, 11th place) or Virginia Tech (+10000, tied for last place).

Miami’s perceived “easy” conference opponents?

That’s Georgia Tech, Virginia and Boston College, all of which are at +10000 and tied for last place.

Also of note: The Canes’ over-under for wins is 7.5, per Draftkings.

That would place Miami with the fourth-most total wins in the conference behind only FSU (10 wins), Clemson (9.5) and North Carolina (8.5) … Louisville is also tied at 7.5 over-under wins followed by NC State and Syracuse at 6.5.

So, if you want to read into this all a little, betting sites seem to think Miami has an easier road to 8 wins total than NC State and is right there with Louisville. That’s in part becuase Miami’s only tough non-conference game is at home vs. Texas A&M. Louisville, by contrast, plays non-conference games vs. Notre Dame, Kentucky and at Indiana. NC State will face Notre Dame and has other non-conference games at UConn and vs. Marshall.

By the way, if you were keeping track a year ago the Canes were 2-10 against the point spread in its games. So if you are a believer that things even out over time, maybe 10-2 vs. the spread is in the cards for this season.

ACC CHAMPIONSHIP OPENING ODDS PER VEGAS INSIDER

Florida State +165Clemson +190North Carolina +650Louisville +1100N.C. State +1500Miami-FL +2200Pittsburgh +2300Duke +3700Syracuse +4800Wake Forest +5000Boston College +10000Georgia Tech +10000Virginia +10000Virginia Tech +10000

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