Better or Worse? Penn State safeties

Penn State football is finalizing preparations for the 2023 season, with fall camp starting late next month. Before the season gets here, we will examine each position on the offense and defense to see if that unit will be better or worse than last season. 

We have our first real sticky projection in our Better or Worse series. Overall the talent at the position is excellent, with four players with either extensive playing experience or superior talent. But one thing is standing in the way of the safeties being better than last season.

Penn State losing Tig Brown is a big deal

It’s easy to cite stats and tackles as a football player’s impact on a team, but they don’t always tell the whole story. But Ji’Ayir Brown’s contribution to the Penn State defense over the last two seasons is evident in the number of impact plays he made. 

YearTacklesINTsPBUsSacks2021736110202274474.5Tig Brown two-year production

Brown generated ten interceptions over the last two seasons. When he moved closer to the line of scrimmage in the boundary safety position last year, he increased his impact behind the line of scrimmage with 7.5 tackles for loss and 4.5 sacks. Wherever you lined Tig up, he made plays for the defense. 

But Brown’s knack for making plays on the ball in the air is unique. Penn State hasn’t had a player with his instincts. Only Amani Oruwariye’s eight interceptions over three years come close to what Brown accomplished in two seasons for the Nittany Lions. So it’s not guaranteed that the new group of players will have the same knack for timely big plays. 

Who will break out of the four-player group?

Yet Penn State’s safety group certainly has more depth than in recent memory. Safeties coach Anthony Poindexter has recruited an impressive group of big, fast players to patrol the middle of the defense. Veterans Keaton Ellis and Jaylen Reed are the likely “starters” of the group, but Zakee Wheatley and KJ Winston present significant skills that make them must-play defenders. 

So the question is whether the veteran players of this group can elevate their play and hold off the young up-and-coming talents behind them. Reed is a physical tackler who works well in underneath coverage but struggled last season to play with great instincts in coverage. Conversely, Ellis has played well in coverage but struggled to tackle consistently when near the line of scrimmage. 

Will Ellis lead the safeties from the boundary?

Also, Penn State has traditionally moved its most veteran safety to the boundary to allow that player to make more plays. The boundary safety spends more time in the box defending the run, giving them more chances to make impactful plays. Is Ellis that player? As the group leader, it’s his turn to fill that role, but with Reed and Winston on the team, they can easily dominate the snaps in the boundary. 

That leaves Ellis and Wheatley to play to the field side predominantly. Wheatley is the one player that has demonstrated the pass-game instincts that Brown had to make plays on the ball. While any player can take a step forward, he’s the early leader to be the impact-play defender in the passing game. 

Meanwhile, there’s no doubt that Winston will make a massive impact in the running game. He’s shown an incredible skill for reading and reacting to the run game in only a small window. His ability to close on rushers and negate mistakes by his teammates was on display during the Blue-White Game. Expect the second-year safety to have a big role in run defense this year. His performance as a high school prospect suggests he can make plays in coverage as well, but we don’t yet know to what level those skills translate to college. 

Final Verdict

The push is a coward’s way out, so we won’t say this group will perform at the same level as last season. Thanks to Winston’s run-game ability and overall position depth, we’ll say that the safeties will be marginally better than last year but with less conviction than you might expect. Losing a certified ball-hawk and playmaker will be harder to replace, let alone all the positions and sub-packages Brown played for Manny Diaz last season. Also, without a firm understanding of which players will occupy which positions, it’s hard to predict if they can make the plays we expect. 

It won’t be one player that replaces Brow, but the platoon of defensive backs we discussed today can get the job done. 

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