Bold Predictions: Penn State defense

The Penn State football team is the offseason darling of the media as a dark horse team that can challenge for the College Football Playoff in 2023. While there are many roads to that reality, we’re taking a bold approach there today. However, the Penn State defense is so talented that it’s hard to find ways to spice things up. Here’s what we’ve come up with.

Edge Rusher: Chop Robinson and Dani Dennis-Sutton have a year

It’s hard to think of bold predictions for the Penn State defensive ends because of my high opinion of this group. So instead of one very bold prediction, let’s make two moderately bold predictions for this group.

The first is that Chop Robinson will crest the 10-sack threshold and get national recognition at defensive end. Sacks are very much tied to luck, but we’re betting that the force of his skill will put him in a position to make that happen. Also, teams will focus on the threat of Abdul Carter rushing through the A gap this year, making Robinson’s job easier. Manny Diaz’s scheme creates hard choices for offensive coordinators because the pressure and the threat of pressure create one-on-one situations for everyone. Robinson has the speed, explosive twitch, and power to win quickly and get to the quarterback.

Along that thread, we will say that Dani Dennis-Sutton will finish second in sacks at the position this year. This one is more of a stretch because Adisa Isaac is still ahead of him on the depth chart and is a valuable asset in obvious pass-rushing situations. There’s also the possibility that Dennis-Sutton is rushing from the interior, which is a generally more challenging task than on the outside, where there’s more space.

However, Dennis-Sutton’s power and length get the job done, and he creates impossible situations for most Big Ten offensive lines by rushing over the team’s weakest interior blocker.

Defensive Tackle: Zane Durant has less sacks but plays better

Defensive ends and defensive tackles share a similar conflict to the one that goes on between tight ends and receivers. If you’ve got talents like Dennis Sutton and Zane Durant, which one gets to play on third down? For our first bold prediction to be accurate, someone must lose snaps on third down.

Last season Durant rushed from the nose tackle position in Penn State’s Prowler Package. Thanks to this, he finished second on the team with 11 pressures despite playing less than half the starters’ snaps.

But if Dennis-Sutton is on the field, does Durant keep his job here? Or do they change the structure of the defense to accommodate both? We’ll give Dennis-Sutton a slight edge in versatility, allowing him to see the field more often on third down.

But that doesn’t mean Durant is left out. He played only 170 run snaps last season, tied for fifth among defensive tackles with teammate Jordan van den Berg. So despite losing reps on third down, his role will grow within the defense by seeing more snaps in the base defense. His strength and explosive skills will allow him to rack up more tackles for loss and stops than he did a year ago. So while he’ll get less love as a pass rusher, he’ll play better overall.

Linebacker: Tony Rojas has an Abdul Carter effect

Once again, the most intriguing group of players on the Penn State defense is its linebackers. So many combinations and permutations of lineups exist for next season. Right now, we’re projecting a reality where Tony Rojas has an Carter-like effect on the defense, which is the ideal scenario for some fans.

It’s also somewhat realistic and more in line with what’s traditionally happened at the Sam linebacker. It wasn’t too long ago that freshman Curtis Jacobs was seeing time at the position and making some splash plays. This is the more natural position for young players to get their feet wet. We’re jacking up the expectations here and making Rojas a full-time starter by the middle of the second month.

Like Carter last year, that would produce a knock-on effect, allowing Jacobs to play Will full-time and shifting Carter into the Mike linebacker spot. Realistically, you could probably flip that as well. Jacobs is playing around 240 pounds now, which is more than big enough to fill the middle of the defense. Take your pick of where those two line up, but this group is the ideal alignment for athleticism and speed on the field.

I’ll allow some of you a moment to calm your excitement before we move on to the secondary.

Cornerback: Penn State’s cornerbacks are better than last season

Losing the 32nd-overall pick in the NFL Draft isn’t the ideal way to improve a position. When healthy, Joey Porter Jr was a dominant force for Penn State. But last year, we saw the team without him, and Johnny Dixon stepped up quickly.

But this is about more than Dixon and Kalen King. This is about the depth of the position, including the slot. Last year Daequan Hardy struggled greatly in Manny Diaz’s defense. He had one of the hardest jobs, playing with no interior help from the slot. As a result, he seemingly lacked confidence and allowed too many critical conversions.

This year, we predict his confidence returns, and he will have a standout season from the slot. Hardy has some of the best feet in the secondary and should be a tailor-made slot defender in Diaz’s defense. He looked much more comfortable during the Blue-White Game as well. While that’s not always a great indicator of future success, we have a history with Hardy to fall back on.

When you factor in Cam Miller’s emergence this spring, we’ll predict that this group will become a shutdown unit from top to bottom.

Safety: KJ Winston leads the Penn State secondary in tackles

This is a bold take because we’re not predicting Winston to start over veteran Jaylen Reed. The sophomore safety will split time and get starter-level reps this year but won’t be the official starter.

Despite that, his ability to burst to the point of attack in the running game and shut down plays was eye-opening during the spring. It’s not unrealistic to think he’ll find a home in special sub-packages against run-heavy teams where he’s added into the box as an extra defender. In the end, Winston will finish top-three in tackles for Penn State to finish off our bold predictions.

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