Luckett’s Bracketology: Projecting the Field of 68
The day college basketball fans have been waiting for has finally arrive. Selection Sunday means we will have brackets to fill out as one of the best postseasons in sports is just about to start. At 6:00 p.m. ET following the Big Ten Championship Game, CBS will reveal the bracket for the 2025 NCAA Tournament. It’s almost time to jump into those bracket pools and fill out 87 brackets as you attempt to win it all.
We will officially learn Kentucky’s path to the Final Four this evening. All expectations are that the Wildcats will land on the No. 3 seed line, while there will be four SEC teams on the No. 1 and No. 2 seed lines. Expect a busy day for the best conference in college basketball as they are expected to crush the record for conference bids.
There are five conference championships on the slate for Sunday but only UAB could be a bid stealer if the Blazers upset Memphis in the American Athletic Conference. I would project VCU to miss the field if they do not beat George Mason in the A-10 championship.
To celebrate the end of this year’s bracketology season, I’m publishing my own bracket projection. This is what I believe the field will look like when we get the bracket this evening. I’ve got a full seed list, the field broken down into regions, first-round sites, and a rundown of the bubble.
Let’s ride.
Seed List
Teams in bold are conference tournament champions. Everyone else receives an at-large bid.
Auburn (1)
Duke
Florida
Houston
Alabama (2)
Tennessee
Michigan State
St. John’s
Kentucky (3)
Texas Tech
Iowa State
Texas A&M
Arizona (4)
Maryland
Wisconsin
Michigan
Purdue (5)
Oregon
Ole Miss
Illinois
BYU (6)
UCLA
Missouri
Kansas
Clemson (7)
Louisville
Saint Mary’s
UConn
Marquette (8)
Memphis
Gonzaga
Mississippi State
Georgia (9)
Creighton
Oklahoma
Arkansas
West Virginia (10)
Utah State
New Mexico
Vanderbilt
Baylor (11)
San Diego State
Indiana
Texas
Drake
VCU
Colorado State (12)
UC San Diego
McNeese
Liberty
Yale (13)
High Point
Akron
Grand Canyon
Lipscomb (14)
Troy
UNC Wilmington
Montana
Robert Morris (15)
Wofford
Omaha
Bryant
Norfolk State (16)
American
SIU-Edwardsville
St. Francis (Pa.)
Mount St. Mary’s
Alabama State
The Field
Atlanta
Auburn (1)
St. John’s (8)
Texas Tech (10)
Arizona (13)
Illinois (20)
Missouri (23)
Clemson (25)
Mississippi State (32)
Creighton (34)
Vanderbilt (40)
VCU (46)
Colorado State (47)
Grand Canyon (54)
UNC Wilmington (57)
Robert Morris (59)
Mount St. Mary’s (67)/Alabama State (68)
Newark
Duke (2)
Alabama (5)
Iowa State (11)
Maryland (14)
Ole Miss (19)
UCLA (22)
UConn (28)
Gonzaga (31)
Georgia (33)
West Virginia (37)
Baylor (41)/Texas (44)
UC San Diego (48)
Akron (53)
Troy (56)
Bryant (62)
SIU-Edwardsville (65)/St. Francis (66)
Indianapolis
Florida (3)
Michigan State (7)
Kentucky (9)
Wisconsin (15)
Purdue (17)
Kansas (24)
Louisville (26)
Memphis (30)
Oklahoma (35)
Utah State (38)
Drake (45)
Liberty (50)
High Point (52)
Montana (58)
Wofford (60)
American (64)
San Francisco
Houston (4)
Tennessee (6)
Texas A&M (12)
Michigan (16)
Oregon (18)
BYU (21)
Saint Mary’s (27)
Marquette (29)
Arkansas (36)
New Mexico (39)
San Diego State (42)/Indiana (43)
McNeese (49)
Yale (51)
Lipscomb (55)
Omaha (61)
Norfolk State (63)
First Weekend Sites
LexingtonAuburn + AlabamaRaleighDuke + FloridaWichitaHouston + Texas TechClevelandTennessee + Michigan StateProvidenceSt. John’s + MarylandMilwaukeeKentucky + Iowa StateDenverTexas A&M + ArizonaSeattleWisconsin + Michigan
The Bubble
— Last Four Byes: Vanderbilt, New Mexico, Utah State, West Virginia
— Last Four In: Texas, Indiana, San Diego State, Baylor
— First Four Out: North Carolina, Ohio State, Xavier, Boise State
Takeaways
— The overall No. 1 seed ended up being a very close call between Auburn and Duke since the Tigers are reeling down the stretch, but the volume of Quad 1A wins (10-6) gives the SEC champ the advantage.
— High-end wins separate Kentucky from everyone else on the No. 3 line but the total number of St. John’s wins help them rise above the Cats for the final No. 2 seed.
— Clemson and Louisville could be the most polarizing teams in this field. A ton of wins but i believe the committee will punish them for how bad the ACC was. Louisville had zero Quad 1A wins heading into the ACC Tournament. Clemson only had one top-50 NET win away from home. That will matter in seeding.
— The final seed on the bubble came down to Texas vs. North Carolina. I again think the ACC will be punished here. UNC’s Quad 3 home loss to Stanford is just something they cannot have on the resume without high-quality wins. A 5-10 Quad 1 record before the SEC Tournament for the Horns is (barely) enough to get them in but it is a very close call. The committee rewarded the SEC in the mid-season bracket reveal. I believe we will see them do the same on Sunday.
— Potential second-round opponents for Kentucky: Illinois, BYU, UCLA, Missouri, Kansas, Clemson, and Louisville.
The post Luckett’s Bracketology: Projecting the Field of 68 appeared first on On3.
