2025 NCAA Tournament Predictions: Bracketology projections close out February, welcome March

The 1-seed line has continued to take shape over recent weeks, with teams shifting up and down as they pick up wins and losses in conference play. Alabama stuck as a top seed, but a loss against Missouri now brings Tennessee and Houston back into play for a jump.

The NCAA uses the NET Rankings – an analytic algorithm which ranks every team in college basketball by splitting wins and losses into four categories (known as quadrants) – to help the selection committee build the 68-team bracket in March.

Bracketology aims to predict how the selection committee will seed each team based on the results to this point in the season, while accounting for other factors which impact the final bracket.

After the changes up top, there is also some shifting to account for through the middle of the field, which all trickles down to an updated look at the NCAA Tournament bubble entering the weekend.

Check out the latest bracketology projections for the 2025 NCAA Tournament.

Bracketology

All projections are based on data through Feb. 26.
Projected 1-line: Auburn, Duke, Alabama, Houston
Last four byes: Arkansas, Ohio State, Georgia, SDSU
Last four in: Oklahoma, West Virginia, North Carolina, Texas
First four out: SMU, Nebraska, Boise State, Indiana

First Four (Dayton)

16 Omaha (Summit) vs. 16 Southern (SWAC)
16 Marist (MAAC) vs. 16 American (Patriot)
11 Oklahoma vs. 11 Texas
11 West Virginia vs. 11 North Carolina

South (Atlanta)

Lexington
1 Auburn (SEC) vs. 16 Marist/American
8 BYU vs. 9 UConn
Seattle
5 Clemson vs. 12 McNeese (Southland)
4 Texas A&M vs. 13 Jacksonville State (CUSA)
Milwaukee
6 Louisville vs. 11 Ohio State
3 Kentucky vs. 14 Towson (CAA)
Cleveland
7 Marquette vs. 10 Georgia
2 Michigan State (Big Ten) vs. 15 Robert Morris (Horizon)

1-seed Auburn

Bruce Pearl (Photo by USA Today)

Auburn stands firm at the No. 1 overall seed in bracketology for another week, with a sizeable gap protecting them and an even larger gap which has them nearly locked in as a 1-seed in the NCAA Tournament already. Nothing changes here.

2-seed Michigan State

State Spartans head coach Tom Izzo reacts during the first half against the Minnesota Golden Gophers at Williams Arena. Photo by Matt Krohn | USA Today Network

Michigan State gets another boost to help assert their place as a true contender for one of the top NCAA Tournament contenders as they keep moving up the bracketology board. They currently sit atop the conference standings in the Big Ten with a chance to add that title to the resume.

West (San Francisco)

Wichita
1 Houston (Big 12) vs. 16 SEMO (OVC)
8 Gonzaga vs. 9 Utah State
Denver
5 Purdue vs. 12 UC San Diego (Big West)
4 Iowa State vs. 13 Lipscomb (ASUN)
Wichita
6 St. Mary’s (WCC) vs. 11 West Virginia/North Carolina
3 Missouri vs. 14 Chattanooga (SoCon)
Milwaukee
7 Memphis (AAC) vs. 10 Arkansas
2 Wisconsin vs. 15 Montana (Big Sky)

1-seed Houston

Kelvin Sampson’s Houston Cougars landed the No. 11 recruiting class after the early signing period (photo credit – Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports)

Houston makes the leap to the 1-seed line after weeks of boasting a resume worthy of such a jump. The Cougars finally got the break needed above them in conjunction with one of their biggest Big 12 victories to date in the regular season.

2-seed Wisconsin

Kayla Wolf-USA TODAY Sports

Wisconsin continues to sit right on the edge of contention for a 2-seed in the latest bracketology update. Upset losses around them have helped the Badgers further build the case which needs little help thanks to a resume which continues to improve over time.

East (Newark)

Raleigh
1 Duke vs. 16 Norfolk State (MEAC)
8 Creighton vs. 9 Vanderbilt
Providence
5 Ole Miss vs. 12 Yale (Ivy)
4 Michigan vs. 13 High Point (Big South)
Providence
6 Kansas vs. 11 Oklahoma/Texas
3 St. John’s (Big East) vs. 14 James Madison (SBC)
Cleveland
7 Oregon vs. 10 New Mexico (MWC)
2 Florida vs. 15 Bryant (AEC)

1-seed Duke

Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports

Duke remains the cleat No. 2 overall seed in bracketology with a decent gap between where they stand and any potential fall to the 2-seed line. The Blue Devils have few more resume-building opportunities on the schedule to catch Auburn, but also few real chances to lose enough to hurt themselves on Selection Sunday.

2-seed Florida

Florida drops from the 1-seed line down into the mix of 2-seed contenders after taking a loss against Georgia on the road. Despite nearly coming back from a record deficit in the final minutes, the Gators likely would have lost the spot to Houston but could have remained above Tennessee.

Midwest (Indianapolis)

Lexington
1 Alabama vs. 16 Omaha/Southern
8 UCLA vs. 9 Baylor
Seattle
5 Maryland vs. 12 Drake (MVC)
4 Texas Tech vs. 13 Akron (MAC)
Denver
6 Mississippi State vs. 11 SDSU
3 Arizona vs. 14 Utah Valley (WAC)
Raleigh
7 Illinois vs. 10 VCU (A10)
2 Tennessee vs. 15 CCSU (NEC)

1-seed Alabama

Alabama coach Nate Oats (Will McLelland / Imagn Images)

Alabama moves up the board in the latest bracketology projections after seeing Florida fall to the 2-seed line. The Crimson Tide now sit atop the group of four teams with every opportunity to clinch a 1-seed on Selection Sunday with razor thin margins between them.

2-seed Tennessee

(Saul Young/News Sentinel / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images) Tennessee basketball coach Rick Barnes talks to Darlinstone Dubar (8) during the NCAA college basketball game againstKentucky on Tuesday, Jan. 28, 2025, in Knoxville, Tenn.

Tennessee sits in the top 2-seed slot, waiting once again for a team above to slip and open the door for a return to the top line. The Volunteers have plenty opportunities remaining to build the resume, but with two realistic spots there is fierce competition.

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