Texas is still on the right side of the bubble, but will it stay there?
The Texas Longhorns’ 84-69 loss at South Carolina on Saturday night was an incredibly disappointing day for Rodney Terry‘s program. Not only did Texas supply the Gamecocks with their first Southeastern Conference win of the 2024-25 season, they looked totally uninspired doing so save for a 29-point effort from Tre Johnson that’s almost to be expected at this point.
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There are no good losses, but there are bad losses and worse losses. The result Saturday falls into the latter category, as it puts Texas in a position to where it likely needs to win three of its final four games to feel safe about its chances of securing an at-large bid to the 2025 NCAA Tournament.
While the result Saturday does little to inspire confidence (it does the opposite actually), it does not take Texas out of contention for a spot in the field of 68 as it stands today. ESPN’s Joe Lunardi bumped Texas down two spots on Sunday morning in his latest bracketology, but still kept the Longhorns in the “last four byes” category. They were joined by fellow SEC team Vanderbilt, with conference mates Oklahoma and Arkansas in the “last four in” group.
Because of the strength of the SEC, with every team within the top 90 of the all-important NET rankings, every conference game is a chance to bolster a resume. Texas has four opportunities left with two of them Quadrant 1 games.
It just so happens the Quadrant 1 games are on the road, starting Wednesday at Arkansas. The Razorbacks pummeled Texas 78-70 earlier in the year in a game not as close as the final score would seem to indicate.
Remaining on the bubble, and on the right side, won’t be an easy task. However, the quality of the bubble is not particularly strong this year. Here’s info on every team on Lunardi’s bubble.
TEAMRECORDCONF. RECORDCATEGORYNET RANKINGKENPOM RANKINGWest Virginia16-117-9 Big 12Last four byes4750Vanderbilt18-96-8 SECLast four byes4343Texas16-115-9 SECLast four byes3839Nebraska17-107-9 Big 10Last four byes5446San Diego St.18-711-5 MWCLast four in4942Oklahoma17-104-10 SECLast four in5149Arkansas16-115-9 SECLast four in4036Wake Forest19-811-5 ACCLast four in6269North Carolina17-1110-6 ACCFirst four out4544SMU20-711-5 ACCFirst four out3940Georgia16-114-10 SECFirst four out4145TEAMRECORDCONF. RECORDCATEGORYNET RANKINGKENPOM RANKINGBoise State19-811-5 MWCFirst four out4648George Mason21-612-2 A10Nextfour out6472Xavier17-109-7 Big EastNext four out5251Indiana15-116-9 Big 10Next four out5957Villanova16-129-8 Big EastNext four out5056Pittsburgh16-117-9 ACCNext5554Santa Clara19-1011-5 WCCNext5355Kansas State13-137-8 Big 12Next7559San Francisco22-712-4 WCCNext6063
These rankings show that as the bubble stands today, the Longhorns have a good resume compared to other teams sweating Selection Sunday here in late February.
Whether they can keep or improve that resume is a question that appears increasingly difficult to answer after Saturday’s game. Plus, the Longhorns need every single conference tournament to be as chalky as possible, and one-bid leagues to remain one-bid leagues. That applies to the Mountain West, the West Coast Conference, and even the Atlantic Coast Conference.
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The path is there, but it’s not an easy one thanks to Texas’ created difficulties from Saturday night
Quadrant 1 games
Quadrant 1 games are home contests against teams ranked 1-30, neutral site games against teams ranked 1-50, and road games against teams ranked 1-75
Record: 4-8
Wins
1/15 – at No. 51 Oklahoma – 77-73
1/21 – No. 16 Missouri – 61-53
1/25 – No. 18 Texas A&M – 70-69
2/14 – No. 12 Kentucky – 82-78
Losses
11/4 – vs. No. 34 Ohio State – 80-72
1/4 – at No. 18 Texas A&M – 80-60
1/7 – No. 1 Auburn – 87-82
1/11 – No. 5 Tennessee – 74-70
1/18 – at No. 4 Florida – 84-60
1/29 – at No. 24 Ole Miss – 72-69
2/8 – at No. 43 Vanderbilt – 78-86
2/11 – No. 6 Alabama 103-80
Quadrant 2 games
Quadrant 2 games are home contests versus teams ranked 31-75, neutral site contests against teams ranked 51-100, and away games against teams ranked 76-135
Record: 3-3
Wins
11/22 – vs. No. 82 St. Joseph’s – 67-58
12/4 – at No. 118 NC State – 63-59
2/1 – at No. 81 LSU – 89-58
Losses
12/8 – No. 35 UConn – 76-65
2/5 – No. 40 Arkansas – 78-70
2/22 – at No. 89 South Carolina – 84-69
Quadrant 3 games
Quadrant 3 games are home contests against teams ranked 76-160, neutral site games against teams ranked 101-200, and away games against teams ranked 136-240
Record: 2-0
Wins
11/21 – vs. No. 145 Syracuse – 70-66
12/12 – No. 143 New Mexico State – 91-67
Quadrant 4 games
Quadrant 4 games are home games against teams ranked 161 or higher, neutral site games against teams ranked 201 or higher, and away contests against teams ranked 241 or higher
Record: 7-0
Wins
11/8 – No. 281 Houston Christian – 90-59
11/12 – No. 358 Chicago State – 105-58
11/16 – No. 364 Mississippi Valley State – 89-43
11/29 – No. 294 Delaware State – 90-68
12/15 – No. 362 Arkansas-Pine Bluff – 121-57
12/19 – No. 343 New Orleans – 98-62
12/29 – No. 244 Northwestern State – 77-53
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Upcoming games
2/26 – at No. 40 Arkansas – Quadrant 1
3/1 – No. 41 Georgia – Quadrant 2
3/4 – at No. 28 Mississippi State – Quadrant 1
3/8 – No. 51 Oklahoma – Quadrant 2
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