2025 NCAA Tournament Predictions: Bracketology projections swing with top seeds, bubble movement
The weekend slate saw multiple matchups between teams currently in the running to host a regional site in the NCAA Tournament, making every result vital to the next edition of bracketology. The results left no shortage of changes to be made.
The NCAA uses the NET Rankings – an analytic algorithm which ranks every team in college basketball by splitting wins and losses into four categories (known as quadrants) – to help the selection committee build the 68-team bracket in March.
Bracketology aims to predict how the selection committee will seed each team based on the results to this point in the season, while accounting for other factors which impact the final bracket.
As the top overall seeds shift again, attentional should not be turned away from the bubble either, where each result impacts the current position of several big programs.
Check out the latest bracketology projections for the 2025 NCAA Tournament.
Bracketology
All projections are based on data through Feb. 22.
Projected 1-line: Auburn, Duke, Florida, Alabama
Last four byes: Arkansas, Ohio State, Oklahoma, Texas
Last four in: Georgia, West Virginia, North Carolina, SDSU
First four out: SMU, Nebraska, Wake Forest, Boise State
First Four (Dayton)
16 SEMO (OVC) vs. 16 Southern (SWAC)
16 Marist (MAAC) vs. 16 American (Patriot)
11 Georgia vs. 11 West Virginia
11 North Carolina vs. 11 SDSU
South (Atlanta)
Lexington
1 Auburn (SEC) vs. 16 Omaha/Southern
8 BYU vs. 9 Utah State
Seattle
5 Michigan vs. 12 McNeese (Southland)
4 Missouri vs. 13 Akron (MAC)
Denver
6 St. Mary’s (WCC) vs. 11 Georgia/West Virginia
3 Kentucky vs. 14 Towson (CAA)
Wichita
7 Illinois vs. 10 Oklahoma
2 Houston (Big 12) vs. 15 Montana (Big Sky)
1-seed Auburn
Bruce Pearl (Photo by Auburn Athletics)
Auburn continues to hold steady as the No. 1 overall seed, with a rather significant gap to the field holding steady if not growing in the final days of February. Barring a significant change, the Tigers seem destined to hold on the 1-seed line regardless of conference tournament outcome.
2-seed Houston
David Becker/Getty Images
Houston continues to piece together an incredible resume which seems more than worthy of a 1-seed spot, despite their continued position on the 2-seed line. The Cougars are primed to jump the line at the first sign of slipping from anyone above but Auburn.
West (San Francisco)
Lexington
1 Alabama vs. 16 SEMO (OVC)
8 UCLA vs. 9 New Mexico (MWC)
Providence
5 Clemson vs. 12 Drake (MVC)
4 Purdue vs. 13 High Point (Big South)
Denver
6 Mississippi State vs. 11 North Carolina/SDSU
3 Arizona vs. 14 Utah Valley (WAC)
Cleveland
7 Kansas vs. 10 VCU (A10)
2 Tennessee vs. 15 Bryant (AEC)
1-seed Alabama
Patrick Breen/The Republic / USA TODAY NETWORK
Alabama makes a quick return to the 1-seed line on razor thin margins with the likes of Tennessee and Houston. The jump has as much to do with the perception of bouncing back from a two-game skid as any change to the actual resume.
2-seed Tennessee
(Saul Young/News Sentinel / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images) Tennessee basketball coach Rick Barnes during the NCAA college basketball game against Gardner-Webb on Monday, Nov. 4, 2024, in Knoxville, Tenn.
Tennessee falls from a 1-seed to a 2-seed here through absolutely no fault of their own, in fact adding to the resume with a road win. The margins continue to be razor thin, and something as small as Alabama getting a perceived ‘bounce back’ could be the difference for now.
East (Newark)
Raleigh
1 Duke (ACC) vs. 16 Marist/American
8 Creighton vs. 9 Vanderbilt
Providence
5 Maryland vs. 12 Yale (Ivy)
4 St. John’s (Big East) vs. 13 Lipscomb (ASUN)
Milwaukee
6 Louisville vs. 11 Texas
3 Wisconsin vs. 14 Chattanooga (SoCon)
Cleveland
7 Memphis (AAC) vs. 10 Baylor
2 Michigan State (Big Ten) vs. 15 CCSU (NEC)
1-seed Duke
Rob Kinnan-USA TODAY Sports
Duke holds onto the No. 2 overall seed and leads the pack of strong 1-seed candidates still at risk of dropping due to the strength of multiple 2-seed resumes. The Blue Devils took advantage of a late non-conference matchup which provides a better win than anyone left on their ACC schedule.
2-seed Michigan State
Tom Izzo photo. | By Ron Johnson | USA Today Network
Michigan State takes a massive leap forward in the latest bracketology projections, getting into the mix for a 2-seed after taking control of the Big Ten standings with a pair of big-time wins. The Spartans also benefit from the string of losses by teams in this range to further catapult them up.
Midwest (Indianapolis)
Raleigh
1 Florida vs. 16 Norfolk State (MEAC)
8 Gonzaga vs. 9 UConn
Seattle
5 Ole Miss vs. 12 UC San Diego (Big West)
4 Texas Tech vs. 13 Jacksonville State (CUSA)
Wichita
6 Marquette vs. 11 Ohio State
3 Texas A&M vs. 14 James Madison (SBC)
Milwaukee
7 Oregon vs. 10 Arkansas
2 Iowa State vs. 15 Cleveland State (Horizon)
1-seed Florida
Todd Golden, Florida Basketball | Matt Pendleton-Imagn Images
Florida remains firmly in the 1-seed conversation as the overcome injury by getting back a key player to fill the role. The Gators have a case against anyone in the country and could be the biggest threat to Auburn’s No. 1 overall seed if they can make an SEC Tournament run.
2-seed Iowa State
Amy Kontras-Imagn Images
Iowa State could make the rare jump in seed line after a loss, thanks in part to the results of many teams around them which will do more damage to the resume than a loss to a potential 1-seed while dealing with multiple injuries.
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