2025 NCAA Tournament Predictions: Bracketology projections with movement through middle of field
As movement across college basketball continues, the importance of bracketology grows and the frequency of updates increases. From the top of the NCAA Tournament field to the bubble, things are volatile enough to warrant more attention.
The NCAA uses the NET Rankings – an analytic algorithm which ranks every team in college basketball by splitting wins and losses into four categories (known as quadrants) – to help the selection committee build the 68-team bracket in March.
Bracketology aims to predict how the selection committee will seed each team based on the results to this point in the season, while accounting for other factors which impact the final bracket.
As the bubble takes shape, the teams near the line must take advantaged of every opportunity they have to build their computer numbers and paper resume while maintaining the eye test.
Check out the latest bracketology projections for the 2025 NCAA Tournament.
Bracketology
All projections are based on data through Feb. 5.
Projected 1-line: Auburn, Duke, Tennessee, Alabama
Last four byes: Clemson, BYU, West Virginia, Vanderbilt
Last four in: Utah State, SMU, Nebraska, North Carolina
First four out: SDSU, Arkansas, Wake Forest, VCU
First Four (Dayton)
16 American (Patriot) vs. 16 Morehead State (OVC)
16 Southern (SWAC) vs. 16 Omaha (Summit)
11 Utah State vs. 11 North Carolina
11 SMU vs. 11 Nebraska
South (Atlanta)
Lexington
1 Auburn (SEC) vs. 16 American/Morehead State
8 Oregon vs. 9 New Mexico (MWC)
Providence
5 Maryland vs. 12 Yale (Ivy)
4 Ole Miss vs. 13 Arkansas State (SBC)
Seattle
6 St. Mary’s (WCC) vs. 11 SMU/Nebraska
3 Arizona vs. 14 FGCU (ASUN)
Cleveland
7 Louisville vs. 10 West Virginia
2 Florida vs. 15 CCSU (NEC)
1-seed Auburn
Bruce Pearl (Photo by USA Today)
Auburn remains undefeated in SEC play, holding one of the nation’s longest win streaks as they push far ahead of the pack for the No. 1 overall seed in the NCAA Tournament this season. The Tigers now boast a cushion which could see them lose without falling.
2-seed Florida
Todd Golden, Florida – © Randy Sartin-Imagn Images
Florida firmly plants itself on the 2-seed line once more in the latest bracketology projections, still in the mix in the SEC despite a blowout loss against Tennessee which fully flipped the script on the first meeting. The conference slate offers the Gators plenty more chances to get in the 1-seed mix.
West (San Francisco)
Lexington
1 Alabama vs. 16 Southern/Omaha
8 Gonzaga vs. 9 Ohio State
Seattle
5 Michigan State vs. 12 McNeese (Southland)
4 Wisconsin vs. 13 Grand Canyon (WAC)
Denver
6 Illinois vs. 11 UC-Irvine (Big West)
3 Texas A&M vs. 14 Northern Colorado (Big Sky)
Wichita
7 UCLA vs. 10 Georgia
2 Kansas vs. 15 UNC-Ashville (Big South)
1-seed Alabama
Alabama coach Nate Oats (Will McLelland / Imagn Images)
Alabama strengthens its case to land a 1-seed in the latest bracketology update, continuing a strong run in SEC play which has boosted the number all around. The Crimson Tide continue to look the part of a top March Madness team since getting healthy.
2-seed Kansas
Bill Self, Kansas – © Evert Nelson/The Capital-Journal / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images
Kansas jumps back onto the 2-seed line in this updated bracketology, thanks to a win over struggling Iowa State which moved them up the hierarchy of the Big 12 standings.
East (Newark)
Raleigh
1 Duke vs. 16 Marist (MAAC)
8 Creighton vs. 9 Texas
Providence
5 Kentucky vs. 12 George Mason (A10)
4 Marquette vs. 13 Samford (SoCon)
Milwaukee
6 St. John’s (Big East) vs. 11 Vanderbilt
3 Iowa State vs. 14 Jacksonville State (CUSA)
Cleveland
7 Oklahoma vs. 10 BYU
2 Purdue (Big Ten) vs. 15 Cleveland State (Horizon)
1-seed Duke
Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports
Duke further solidified their spot as the second-best 1-seed candidate in college basketball, disposing of struggling rival North Carolina with ease to extend the win steak. The Blue Devils do not face many more challenges in the weakened ACC, giving them an inside track to hold strong.
2-seed Purdue
(Junfu Han/USA Today Sports)
Purdue quietly continues to build its resume and take advantage of others in the mix for top NCAA Tournament seeding with even more upsets around them this week. The Boilermakers just keep stacking wins and building the resume into a top contender.
Midwest (Indianapolis)
Raleigh
1 Tennessee vs. 16 Norfolk State (MEAC)
8 Baylor vs. 9 UConn
Milwaukee
5 Memphis vs. 12 Drake (MVC)
4 Wisconsin vs. 13 Akron (MAC)
Denver
6 Michigan vs. 11 Utah State/North Carolina
3 Texas Tech vs. 14 Bryant (AEC)
Wichita
7 Mississippi State vs. 10 Clemson
2 Houston (Big 12) vs. 15 Towson (CAA)
1-seed Tennessee
(Saul Young/News Sentinel / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images) Tennessee basketball coach Rick Barnes talks to Darlinstone Dubar (8) during the NCAA college basketball game againstKentucky on Tuesday, Jan. 28, 2025, in Knoxville, Tenn.
Tennessee benefits from the chaotic nature of college basketball this season, as well as their bounce back effort against Florida to rise onto the 1-seed line once again. The Volunteers now look to hold off the pack behind them.
2-seed Houston
Kelvin Sampson’s Houston Cougars landed the No. 11 recruiting class after the early signing period (photo credit – Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports)
Houston dropped a golden opportunity to climb from a 2-seed to the 1-seed line this week in bracketology, dropping a home game against Texas Tech over the weekend. The Cougars are still strongly in the mix to climb the board with big opportunities ahead.
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