Ranking Tennessee Football’s 2023 schedule from easiest to hardest
The countdown to Tennessee football’s 2023 season is on, with less than three months until the Vols kickoff against Virginia at Nissan Stadium in Nashville. Here’s a look at the full list of opponents this season, ranking the schedule from easiest to hardest:
12. Austin Peay (September 9)
We’ll start by stating the obvious. These “buy games” are scheduled for a reason. The Division I program, in theory, gets an opportunity to get better while the inferior opponent gets a big check for making the trip. The Governors start on the road at Southern Illinois, then come to Knoxville a week later. Tennessee opens with Virginia at Nissan Stadium in Nashville, then hosts Austin Peay for its home opener. Austin Peay is coming off a 7-4 season, which included a 34-0 loss at Alabama last November.
11. UConn (November 4)
UConn won six games last season. The Huskies lost 59-0 at Michigan in September, a week after a 48-14 home loss to Syracuse, and opened the season with a 31-20 loss at Utah State. The season ended with a 28-14 loss to Marshall in the Myrtle Beach Bowl in December. This season UConn is ranked No. 119 in ESPN’s Football Power Index (the metric predicts how many points above or below average a team will be) and No. 115 in ESPN’s SP+ (weighing returning production, recent recruiting and recent history for a program). The FPI projects UConn to go 5-7 this season while the SP+ ranks the Huskies No. 125 overall on offense and No. 90 on defense. For context in the ESPN metrics, Tennessee is No. 6 in the SP+ (No. 3 on offense, No. 31 on defense) and No. 12 in the FPI (projected to go 8-4).
10. Vanderbilt (November 25)
Clark Lea is 7-17 after two seasons at Vanderbilt, taking the Commodores from two wins in 2021 (after the ‘Dores went 0-9 under Derek Mason in the COVID-shortened 2020 season) to a 5-7 season in 2022. Tennessee went to Vanderbilt on November 26 last season — a week after a tough loss at South Carolina, losing Hendon Hooker to a torn ACL — and won 56-0 while rushing for 362 yards as a team, with six touchdowns on the ground. The FPI has Vandy at No. 73 overall while the ‘Dores are No. 69 in the SP+. The FPI has Vanderbilt going 4-8 while the SP+ has Lea’s team ranked No. 53 offensively and No. 99 defensively.
9. Virginia (September 2)
Former Clemson offensive coordinator Tony Elliott went 3-7 in his first year as Virginia’s head coach. The three wins were Richmond in the season opener, Old Dominion in Week 3 (16-14) and at Georgia Tech (16-9) in October. Now Elliott starts Year 2 with his Virginia team as a four-touchdown underdog against Tennessee in the season opener at Nissan Stadium in Nashville. ESPN’s FPI has Virginia at No. 72 overall, sandwiched between No. 71 Stanford and No. 73 Vanderbilt, and projects UVA to go 4-8 this season. The Cavaliers are No. 79 in the SP+, ranked No. 124 on offense and No. 24 on defense.
8. UTSA (September 23)
All UTSA did last season was win 11 games. All UTSA has at quarterback is a redshirt senior in Frank Harris who has accounted for 11,234 yards and 99 touchdowns over the last four seasons. Last season he had career highs in both passing (4,063 yards, 32 touchdowns) and rushing (602 yards, nine touchdowns). Obviously stopping the Roadrunners will come down to limiting the dual-threat damage caused by Harris. ESPN’s FPI has UTSA at No. 61 and the SP+ has them at No. 57, ranked No. 39 on offense and No. 85 on defense. The UTSA game comes at an interesting time on the schedule, stuck between the SEC opener at Florida and the home date with South Carolina.
7. South Carolina (September 30)
Tennessee fans need not be reminded of what happened in Columbia, S.C., last November. This year the Vols get the Gamecocks at Neyland Stadium in Knoxville in September and should have more than enough motivation in front of the home crowd. South Carolina has the same quarterback (Spencer Rattler) and a new offensive coordinator (Dowell Loggains), but the metrics don’t think all that highly of the Gamecocks. They’re ranked No. 42 in the FPI and No. 33 in the SP+. South Carolina’s offense comes in at No. 20 while the defense is ranked 64th. Before the trip to Tennessee, the Gamecocks play North Carolina in Charlotte, host Furman, go to Georgia and have a home date with Mississippi State.
6. At Missouri (November 11)
Tennessee has won four straight in the series. Under Josh Heupel, the Vols have put 128 points on the board in two games against the Tigers, against just 48 allowed. Tennessee won 66-24 at Neyland Stadium in November, a little over a year removed from the 62-24 win at Missouri in October 2021. ESPN’s FPI has Missouri at No. 40 and projected to go 6-6. The SP+ has Mizzou at No. 34 overall, ranked No. 52 on offense and No. 17 on defense.
5. At Kentucky (October 28)
Tennessee’s 44-6 win over Kentucky in October was arguably the most complete win and best overall performance for the Vols during the first two years of the Josh Heupel era. Now Tennessee will have to go to Lexington and do it again, after Heupel’s team won 45-42 at Kroger Field in 2021. The metrics like this Kentucky team in 2023. ESPN’s FPI has the Wildcats at No. 28 and the SP+ has them at No. 22, ranked No. 59 on offense and No. 5 on defense. The FPI projects Kentucky to go 7-5.
4. Texas A&M (October 14)
The numbers love Texas A&M in 2023. The Aggies are No. 19 in the FPI, projected to go 8-4, and the Aggies are No. 16 in the SP+, ranked No. 44 on offense and No. 2 on defense. But who knows what to expect from A&M after Jimbo Fisher’s team limped to a 5-7 record in 2022, including a home loss to Appalachian State in September and a six-game losing streak that started on October 1 and stretched all the way to mid-November. The trip to Neyland Stadium in October is the end of a four-game run for A&M that includes Auburn at home, Arkansas (in Dallas) and has a home date with Alabama.
3. At Florida (September 16)
This one always seems to set the tone for a Tennessee football season. The Vols haven’t won in Gainesville since 2003 and will face what is obviously the biggest early-season test at The Swamp in Week 3, a 7 p.m. Eastern Time kickoff on ESPN. The Gators are ranked No. 18 in the FPI, projected to go 7-5 under second-year Florida head coach Billy Napier. The SP+ has Florida at No. 21 overall, ranked No. 23 on offense and No. 38 on defense. Florida opens at Utah and hosts McNeese State before Tennessee makes the trip to Ben Hill Griffin Stadium.
2. Georgia (November 18)
Georgia has won back-to-back national championships. That feels like enough said. Tennessee lost 27-13 at Georgia last November, after the Vols started the season 8-0. Now Georgia makes the return trip to Knoxville in November. Georgia is No. 3 in ESPN’s FPI, projected to go 11-1 and is No. 1 in the SP+, ranked No. 9 on offense and No. 3 on defense. Deciding between Georgia or Alabama as the toughest game on schedule feels like splitting hairs, but at least the Vols get Georgia at home.
1. At Alabama (October 21)
Tennessee’s win over Alabama at Neyland Stadium was magic last season. Jalin Hyatt catching six passes for 207 yards and five touchdowns. The drive to setup the game-winning field goal. The scene after the game as fans stormed the field and lit cigars. Now the Vols have to go to Tuscaloosa and try to rediscover that magic. Alabama is No. 2 in the FPI, projected to win 11 games, and No. 4 in the SP+, ranked No. 5 on offense and No. 10 on defense. The road game at Alabama comes between the Texas A&M home game and the road game at Kentucky on Tennessee’s schedule.
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