ANALYSIS: Ranking the Miami Hurricanes 2023 opponents from easiest to hardest
ANALYSIS: CaneSport staff predicts Miami Hurricanes 2023 win-loss record … and why
As the Miami Hurricanes go about fixing themselves off a 5-7 season, the fall’s success or failures will also just as much be about other programs and how they are able to improve from a year ago. With that in mind, today we’re ranking Miami’s 2023 opponents, from easiest to hardest.
It also gives an idea of where that middle ground is on games that could go either way, with the over-under for wins for this team set at 7.5 per FanDuel. So right where we rank that No. 4/5 opponent is right about where most see Miami’s level this year.
As you look below, you’ll see we have Texas A&M and NC State in those spots.
How those games go could be the difference between an 8 or 9 win team … or better … and one that falters.
So without further ado, our rankings, from easiest to hardest:
12. vs. BETHUNE-COOKMAN, Sept. 14
This struggling program that finished 2-9 last year (including a 70-13 loss to Miami)s Saw coach Terry Sims fired … and then Ed Reed taking over before his much-publicized departure. So now it’s Raymond Woodie Jr. heading the program. There’s really not much here that should worry Miami. It’s a roster that has no player that would be on scholarship at UM, and the program is in disarray. Schematically the offense will operate4 out of shotgun with the defense using four-man fronts. In the spring the team rotated pretty much everywhere to create competition for the fall, and coaches said there are no set starters. That included at QB, where the team is looking to use either redshirt sophomore Walter Simmons, redshirt freshman Ethan Dattilio, freshman Dominiq Ponder or Charlotte transfer Jalon Jones. Among the bigger personnel losses: RB Que’shaun Byrd and TE Kemari Averett. The defense is helped by returning starters Rosendo Louis (LB), Darnell Deas (DB) and Omari Hill-Robinson (CB).
11. at TEMPLE, Sept. 23
The Owls finished 3-9 last year (1-7 AAC) under new coach Stan Drayton, so this is a team that’s really struggling to find its footing. If there is an area that could cause Miami some problems, it’s going to be the passing game behind QB EJ Warner (Kurt Warner’s son). He was the conference rookie of the year after throwing for 3,028 yards with 18 TDs and 12 INTs (the team averaged 21.9 points per game). It won’t help that top receiver Jose Barbon (72 catches, 918 yards) is gone, but WR Amad Anderson (479 yards, 4 TDs) and TEs David Martin-Robinson (366 yards, 2 TDs) and Jordan Smith (346 yards, 4 TDs) return. The team also hopes Colorado State WR transfer Dante Smith can help with his game-breaking speed. On defense the team had issues and allowed an average of 29.3 points and 391.2 yards. So not real good, and there aren’t signs it will be much better. Up front a big loss is Darian Varner’s transfer to Wisconsin (he had 12.5 TFL and 7.5 sacks). The linebackers are the most solid unit here, behind Jordan Magee (86 tackles, 9 TFL, 4.5 sacks), Layton Jordan (team high 18.5 TFL, 9 sacks) and Yvandy Rigby (82 tackles, 5.5 TFL). CB Jalen McMurray (49 tackles, INT) and S Alex Odom (75 tackles, 2 INTs) also return. So Temple has some playmakers but no depth … and the only wins last year were vs. Lafayette, Massachusetts and USF. This will be an easy Miami win.
10. vs. MIAMI (OHIO), Sept. 1
Coming off a 6-7 season, this is a MAC team that plays a much different level of competition than Miami. This isn’t anywhere near the “easy” level of a Bethune-Cookman, and the RedHawks will treat this as a Super Bowl type game. So Miami must match that intensity. On offense QB Brett Gabbert could test UM. He is back after throwing 26 TDs two years ago (he missed most of last year with a shoulder injury), and it’s an offense that averaged 423 yards and 30 points when he was playing in 2022 (that dropped to 20.2 points last year). The run game also returns Keyon Mozee (team high 471 yards), but he rushing attack wasn’t very good in 2022. WR Miles Marshall (390 yards, 2 TDs) returns, but the team loses Mac Hippenhammer (769 yards, 9 TDs). The RedHawks defense could also cause some issues, and the team allowed opponents to average just 22.6 points and 373.1 yards per game. The attack up front returns intact, including Brian Ugwu (11 TFL, 5 sacks) and Corey Suttle (six sacks). At the linebacker level Matthew Salopek (124 tackles, 9 TFL, 3.5 sacks) is solid, and in the back end the main loss is John Saunders (transferred to Mississippi) with Michael Dowell (97 tackles, 5 TFL) and Jacquez Warren (2 INTs) returning. The RedHawks can pose some challenges, but their roster top to bottom really doesn’t have anyone that should be able to play at Miami’s level.
9. vs. VIRGINIA, Oct. 28
CHARLOTTESVILLE, VA – OCTOBER 29: Miami Hurricanes defensive linemen Leonard Taylor (56) and Mitchell Agude (45) tackle Virginia Cavaliers running back Perris Jones (2) during a college football game between the Miami Hurricanes and the Virginia Cavaliers on October 29, 2022, at Scott Stadium in Charlottesville, VA. (Photo by Lee Coleman/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
Virginia isn’t expected to be one of the better ACC programs, and may not be much better than the one in 2022 that finished 3-7 (1-6 ACC). On offense this will be a much different looking team with Brennan Armstrong (2,210 passing yards, 371 rush yards, 13 total TDs) gone to reunite with his former coordinator at NC State. This is a team that in 2022 sports an offense that averaged just 344.1 yards and 17 points. Monmouth transfer Tony Muskett, who threw for 1,997 yards and 17 TDs, was the main first team guy in the spring, but Jay Woolfolk (who also plays baseball for UVA) will also push to start in Year 2 at the program. It won’t help that there are departures of the top WRs Dontayvion Wicks (430 yards, 2 TDs), Keytaeon Thompson (579 yards) and Billy Kemp, who transferred to Nebraska. That’s a heck of a lot of offense to replace, and the top returner on this side of the ball is RB Perris Jones (365 rush yards). On defense? That was the strength last year (allowed 24.0 points per game) and key returners are DL Chico Bennett (34 tackles, 7.5 TFL, 7 sacks), Aaron Faumui (39 tackles, 8.5 TFL, 4 sacks) and Jonas Sanker (63 tackles, INT). The biggest loss here is Nick Jackson (team high 104 tackles, 5 sacks). The bottom line is this is a team that has a lot of depth concerns and offensive question marks. And it’s a reason why many are questioning if Virginia can even make it to four or five wins. Overall we see this as a pretty easy win at home for Miami.
8. at BOSTON COLLEGE, Nov. 24
Boston College, which finished last year 3-9 overall and 2-6 in ACC play, isn’t expected to be one of the conference’s better teams. As far as this Eagles’ program and what Miami can expect when this game rolls around? While BC had an eye-catching 21-20 upset at then-No. 17 NC State late last season, the team has a lot of upgrading and replacing it will need to do in order to even hit .500. Gone are QB Phil Jurkovich (11 TD passes, 8 INTs, transferred to Pitt) and WR Zay Flowers (1,077 yards, 12 TDs, heading to NFL). The top returning weapon on offense is RB Patrick Garwo III (403 yards, 3 TDs), and former All-ACC OL Christan Mahogany will be back off injury and is projected as a high NFL pick. At QB a returner is Emmett Morehead, who threw 10 TDs with six INTs last season as a redshirt freshman. And the team added UCF transfer Thomas Castellanos in the second portal window (he was a backup for the Knights). His former teammate, WR Ryan O’Keefe, also is a BC transfer. This is a team that was dominated up front last year, with the nation’s worst rushing attack (63.2 rush yards per game). On defense it also wasn’t real good last year. The team ranked No. 100 in the nation in scoring defense (30.3 points per game) and No. 67 in total defense (377.8 yards). The defense has talent gaps all over the place, including in the secondary where starting nickel Josh DeBerry left for Texas A&M and safeties Jaiden Woodbey (134 tackles last two years) and Jason Maitre (42 tackles, INT, transferred to Wisconsin) are gone. Returning LBs Donovan Ezeiruaku (14.5 TFL, 8.5 sacks) and Kam Arnold (75 tackles) will lead the way. On the defensive side the team’s brought in DE George Rooks (Michigan, was a backup there) and DBs Khari Johnson (Arkansas, 38 tackles in 3 seasons there), Victor Nelson, Jr. (LIU, had 6 INTs there last season) and Alex Washington (Harvard, grad transfer who has six career INTs). On the offensive side additions are Kye Robichaux (Western Kentucky, 496 rush yards last season), the aforementioned O’Keefe (UCF, had 725 receiving yards on 73 catches last season) and OL Kyle Hergel (Texas State, RG starter) and Logan Taylor (Virginia, LT starter). We also should add that some fans might want to call this the Blake James Bowl – yes, Miami’s former Athletic Director has the same job at BC. This is a program that’s had six or seven wins in eight of the last 10 years (with the missing two years both 3-9 finishes). It won’t be a real good Eagles team, and Miami should win this fairly easily.
7. vs. GEORGIA TECH, Oct. 7
Brent Key (Photo by David J. Griffin/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
The Yellow Jackets are a ho-hum ACC program that has gone 3-9, 3-7, 3-9 and then 5-7 last year. 2022 also marked the final season for coach Geoff Collins, with Brent Key taking over after a 1-3 start. Were there signs of progress here last year under Key, who initially was interim head coach but has now assumed the permanent job? For sure, including upset wins at Pittsburgh and North Carolina (Miami beat Georgia Tech 35-14 last season). Georgia Tech also ended 2022 with a 37-14 loss at Georgia that was competitive into the third quarter (Georgia Tech trailed by three at halftime). So Miami can’t take this game lightly. The Achilles’ heel here is an offense that averaged just 17.2 points and 324.8 yards per game in 2022. The group returns 69 percent of its production from last year, per an ESPN analysis. It won’t help that there was a big hit here with the loss of WR Nate McCollum (team high 60 catches, 655 yards, 3 TDs) to North Carolina, or that top RB Hassan Hall (team high 555 yards) is gone. The team hopes Texas A&M QB transfer Haynes King (1,220 yards, 7 TDs, 6 INTs in six games) or Zach Pyron can help turn things around. At RB the team has Dontae Smith and added Louisville transfer Trevy Cooley, who had 709 rush yards and 239 receiving yards in his two years at UL. On defense? This group yielded 28.4 points and 401.0 yards per game last season and has back 66 percent of its production per an ESPN analysis. A big piece that’s gone is DE Keion White (14 TFL, 7.5 sacks), and also gone are LB Ace Eley (team high 118 tackles, 9.5 TFL, 3.5 sacks) and Charlie Thomas (112 tackles, 10.5 TFL, 2 INTs). The team hopes transfer Braelen Oliver (Minnesota LB) steps up here, and DT D’Quan Douse is solid. In the secondary CB Zamari Walton is gone – he transferred to Ole Miss and had 36 tackles and an INT last year. But this should be a solid group. Safety LaMiles Brooks is probably the top returning defensive player – he had 52 tackles, 2.5 TFL and 3 INTs. The bottom line? This is not a pushover opponent, but it is one Miami should be able to beat fairly easily.
6. vs. LOUISVILLE, Nov. 18
Louisville is a program that hasn’t hit 10 wins since joining the ACC in 2014 but which did climb from records of 4-7 and 6-7 in 2020-2021 to a respectable 8-5 (4-4 ACC) last year. But that jump was under Scott Satterfield, who was lured away by Cincinnati this year. So it’s former Louisville offensive coordinator Jeff Brohm as the program’s new head coach after leading Purdue the last six years. Brohm inherits some decent talent from a team that averaged 26.9 points and 406.5 yards and gave up an ACC-best 19.2 points per game along with 331.5 yards. Miami won’t have to deal with Malik Cunningham, who threw for eight touchdowns and ran in 12 in 10 games. The anticipated starter behind center with Cunningham gone is Cal transfer Jack Plummer, who started every game in 2022 and threw for 3,095 yards with 21 TDs and nine INTs. The former Purdue signee has 6,500 career passing yards with 47 TDs and 19 INTs. Brohm’s offense is predicated on a strong passing game, so it’ll be interesting to see how Plummer fares. The team also has back RB Jawhar Jordan (815 yards, 4 TDs, ended season with three straight 100-yard games) but loses top two passing game targets Tyler Hudson (1,034 yards, 2 TDs) and TE Marshon Ford (434 yards, 3 TDs) to the NFL. Ahmari Huggins-Bruce (365 yards, 2 TDs) returns at wide receiver, and a WR addition that could make some big plays right out of the gate is Georgia State’s Jamari Thrash, who had 1,112 yards and seven TDs last season. Kevin Coleman, who chose Jackson State over Miami in the Class of 2022, also has transferred to Louisville off a 475-yard, 13 TD season. On defense the secondary is a major strength led by M.J. Griffin (45 tackles, 2 INTs) and Jarvis Brownlee (66 tackles, 2 INTs). Up front the team has back a playmaker in Ashton Gillotte (6 sacks). Losses on this side of the ball include LBs Yasir Abdullah (team high 9.5 sacks) and Monty Montgomery (6 sacks, 2 INTs) as well as DL Yaya Diaby (9 sacks) and DB Kei’Trel Clark (51 tackles, INT). So Louisville’s got some question marks on offense and should have a pretty good defense. A season with around 8 or 9 wins would be about right here given the coaching shakeup and some of the transition issues that could occur. This will not be a gimme win for the Canes, and all of the games from here on out have to be considered difficult.
5. at NC STATE, Nov. 4
RALEIGH, NC – APRIL 08: NC State quarterback Brennan Armstrong (5) throws the ball during the NC State spring football game on April 8, 2023, at Carter-Finley Stadium in Raleigh, NC. (Photo by Nicholas Faulkner/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
NC State hasn’t enjoyed a 10-win season since 2002, but this is a program that has won nine games three times in the last five seasons. And the Wolfpack should be pretty good again this coming season. A year ago the offense averaged 24.3 points and 339.8 yards per game while allowing just 19.2 points and 326.9 yards. And the offense could get a bump up with Robert Anae taking over as offensive coordinator … and having QB Brennan Armstrong join him as a transfer from Virginia. The last time Anae coached Armstrong in 2021, all the QB did was throw for 4,449 yards with 31 TDs and 10 INTs, adding 251 rush yards and nine more scores. At RB Jordan Houston is back off a 544-yard season, and WR Keyon Lesane (342 yards) also returns. A loss at WR is Devin Carter (transferring to West Virginia; 406 yards, 2 TDs). On defense several key player return to a really strong unit that will test Miami and new coordinator Shannon Dawson. That includes LB Payton Wilson, who had 82 tackles, 12.5 TFL and 4.5 sacks, first-team All-ACC cornerback Aydan White (4 INTs, 9 PBU) and CB Shyheim Battle (2 INTs), and DE Davin Vann 8 TFL, 4.5 sacks) and C.J. Clark (3 sacks, 4 QB hurries). The major losses here are 2-time All-ACC DT Cory Durden (27 tackles, 2.5 TFL) and LBs Isaiah Moore (82 tackles, 15 QB hurries) and Drake Thomas (team high 101 tackles, 7.5 sacks). As you can see from the above, there are some question marks on offense, but this should be one of the ACC’s better defenses despite losing a few top contributors. And by the time these teams meet you have to think Anae will have his offense clicking. This will be a tough one for Miami to win on the road.
4. vs. TEXAS A&M, Sept. 9
Last season the Aggies were expected to be a top 10 team … but wound up going 5-7 (2-6 SEC). One of those wins, of course, was against Miami. Now the Canes are looking to return the favor this year. So what is UM up against? Well first let’s take a look on the offensive side, where the program brought in Bobby Petrino as the new coordinator. Petrino has made a habit during his career of churning out excellent quarterbacks, and QB Conner Weigman is back after playing only five games (896 yards, 8 TDs, 0 INTs). This is an offense that was stagnant in 2022, averaging just 22.8 points per game and 360.8 yards. But the attack has almost all its pieces returning. It starts with Weigman, but also back are WRs Ainias Smith (291 yards, 2 TDs in 4 games, coming back off injury), Evan Stewart (649 yards, 2 TDs) and Moose Muhammad (610 yards, 4 TDs). Those were the team’s top three wideouts, all returning. The major loss on this side is star RB Devon Achane (1,102 yards, 8 TDs), and highly touted 5-star early enrollee Rueben Owens is expected to have a role along with Le’Veon Moss (114 yards) and Amari Daniels (200 yards). On defense this was a strength last year, with the team allowing an average 21.2 points and 365.0 yards per game. There’s plenty of talent back up front in DEs Fadil Diggs (5 TFL, 3 sacks in 8 games) and Shemar Stewart (23 tackles, 3.5 TFL, 4 QB hurries) along with DTs Shemar Turner (4.5 TFL) and Walter Nolan (2.5 TFL) along with McKinnley Jackson coming back off injury. There’s no letup at the next level of D, with LB Chris Russell (66 tackles, 7 TFL) and LB Edgerrin Cooper (61 tackles, 8 TFL) returning, plus the addition of Jackson State transfer Jurriente Davis. The team gets back leading tackler Demani Richardson at safety (he had 73 tackles and an INT), but doesn’t have much back at corner off last season’s team. To help the team added Tony Grimes from UNC via the transfer portal, so that could shore up this group. The bottom line? This will be Miami’s first test of the season in Game 2. This game will be the first chance to really get a sense of what the 2023 Miami Hurricanes can accomplish.
3. at NORTH CAROLINA, Oct. 14
Drake Maye
Go ahead and call North Carolina a dark horse to win the ACC after the presumptive favorites Clemson and Florida State. This one will probably be the first major test of the Lance Guidry era at Miami. That’s because of the first five opponents, none are expected to feature an offense anywhere close to North Carolina’s. The two tougher games out of those five are Texas A&M and a middle-of-the-road Georgia Tech program, both which barely averaged over 20 points a game in 2022. It will be very interesting in this road game to see what Guidry dials up to try and confuse / slow down Heisman Trophy candidate Drake Maye. All the North Carolina QB did a year ago was compile 4,321 pass yards and 38 TDs with 698 rush yards and seven more scores). He leads an offense that averaged a high-flying 34.4 points and 462.8 yards last year. But this is a team that does have to deal with losing leading WRs Josh Downs (94 catches, 1,029 yards, 11 TDs) and Antione Green (434 catches, 798 yards, 7 TDs). UNC hopes that Georgia Tech transfer Nate McCollum (655 yards, 3 TDs) and Kent State transfer Tez Walker (921 yards, 11 TDs) can pick up the slack. Lead back Elijah Green (558 yards, 8 TDs) returns, which will help. On the defensive side things just didn’t go real well last year – 30.8 points and 436.5 yards allowed per game. And it won’t help that the secondary takes a hit with the losses of DBs Storm Duck (3 INTs), Tony Grimes (7 PBU) and Cam’Ron Kelly (49 tackles, INT). The strength here is at the linebacker level, where Cedric Gray (145 tackles, 12 TFL, 2 INTs) and fellow LB Power Echols (103 tackles, 2 sacks and an interception) are outstanding defenders. In the back end UNC added Armani Chatman (Virginia Tech) and Alijah Huzzie (ETSU) to help improve the performance. Up front is a major question mark after that area faltered, and there’s no one you can point to right now as a clear standout there. The bottom line in this game? We expect UNC to have a lot of high-scoring games, similar to last year, with the expectation that the offense will again have its way most of the time but the D having some question marks. If the D is a little improved, though, watch out. This will be a very tough game for Miami on the road.
2. vs. CLEMSON, Oct. 21
Clemson would have ranked atop this list for the better part of the last decade … Clemson has won 10 or more games in each of the last 12 seasons. But the Tigers are No. 2 on this list with FSU expected to continue to build on a strong 2022 season. So what do we see here? Well, Clemson is still one of the nation’s best teams and could easily win the ACC title, which the Tigers have made a habit of doing. Let’s take a dive under the hood, starting with the Clemson offense. In a new Air Raid system under new coordinator Garrett Riley, Clemson hopes it can improve on its 410 yards and 33.2 points per game average. That will start with QB Cade Klubnik, a 5-star in the Class of 2022 who was the backup to DJ Uiagalelei until taking the reins after he was MVP of the ACC title game (a 39-10 win over UNC). In that game he threw for 279 yards on 20 of 24 completions with a TD and no interceptions, adding 30 yards and another TD on the ground. He then started the bowl game vs. Tennessee and threw for 320 yards and ran for 51 with a TD … but he was intercepted twice and the team lost, 31-14. Helping on offense is a lot of weapons back including WR Antonio Williams off a strong freshman year (604 yard, 4 TDs) and star RB Will Shipley (1,202 yards, 15 TDs). The big losses here are to the NFL with WR Joseph Ngata (526 yards, 2 TDs), LT Jordan McFadden and TE Davis Allen (443 yards, 5 TDs). On the defensive side? The team averaged allowing just 20.9 points and 334.4 yards per game. And while there are significant losses on this side the thought is this will be a case of reloading vs. rebuilding. Up front key losses were DEs Myles Murphy (6.5 sacks) and KJ Henry (3.5 sacks) as well as DT Bryan Bresee (3.5 sacks), but there’s talent here in DE Xavier Thomas (2 sacks), DE Justin Mascoll, DT Tyler Davis (9.5 TFL, 5.5 sacks) and DT Ruke Orhorhoro (8 TFL, 4 sacks). At linebacker the returning talent is stellar with Barrett Carter (77 tackles, 5.5 sacks, 2 INTs) and Jeremiah Trotter Jr. (team high 92 tackles, 6.5 sacks, 2 INTs). The loss at this level is Trenton Simpson to the NFL – he had 77 tackles and 2.5 sacks. In the back end? Returning starters are safeties Andrew Mukuba (50 tackles, 4 PBU) and Jalyn Phillips (82 tackles, 4 PBU) and CBs Nate Wiggins (12 PBU) and Sheridan Jones (31 tackles). So you can see from the above that Miami has its work cut out, as there remains a significant talent gap between the Canes and Tigers.
1. at FLORIDA STATE, Nov. 11
Florida State Seminoles quarterback Jordan Travis (13) passes the ball during the Cheez-It Bowl between Oklahoma and Florida State on December 29, 2022 at Camping World Stadium, in Orlando FL. (Photo by Joe Petro/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
If Clemson was an away game for Miami and FSU was a home game, maybe the 1 and 2 on this list would be flip-flopped. But any way you cut it, the Tigers and Seminoles are by far the toughest games we see on this year’s schedule. And that’s because both of these opponents you just don’t see a lot of weak areas on either side of the ball. FSU is looking to build on last year’s breakout 10-3 season (5-2 ACC, including a 45-3 thrashing of Miami) to be one of the nation’s top teams. Many are projecting Florida State as a top 5-10 team this year. A reason for that? Well, let’s first start with an offense that averaged 36.1 points and 484.2 yards per game (214.1 rushing). That attack starts with QB Jordan Travis, who is getting Heisman Trophy Buzz after throwing for 3,214 yards with 24 TDs and five INTs while adding 417 rush yards and five more scores. Plus the top talent at RB and WR is back led by Trey Benson (990 rush yards, 9 TDs) and WR Johnny Wilson (897 yards, 5 TDs). It also will help FSU that WR Keon Coleman (58 catches, 798 yards, 7 TDs at Michigan State last year) arrives, plus TE Jaheim Bell arrives in the portal via South Carolina – he’s a reliable pass catching option. On the other side of the ball the defense allowed an average of 20.6 points and 321.8 yards, so it was a strong group. And there are solid returners here at all levels. Up front the group is led by Fabien Lovett (limited to 7 games last year, 1 sack) and Jared Verse (17 TFL, 9 sacks), plus a name Miami fans know very well in DT transfer Darrell Jackson. Western Michigan DT Braden Fiske is another new face the team feels can contribute. At the linebacker level Tatum Bethune (84 tackles, 9.5 TFL, 3 sacks) and Kalen DeLoach (65 tackles, 7.5 TFL, 3 sacks) are also back. The team also got a major portal addition in CB Fentrell Cypress II, who was considered one of the top talents available. He’ll join a solid secondary led by safety Akeem Dent (53 tackles, 4 PBU) and CB Renardo Green (58 tackles, 3 TFL, 5 PBU). The team’s biggest losses: RB Treshaun Ward (628 yards, 7 TDs) to Kansas State and DB Jammie Robinson (team high 99 tackles, INT) to the NFL as well as DT Robert Cooper (19 tackles, TFL) and DE Leonard Warner (22 tackles, 2.5 sacks). You can see from the above there just aren’t obvious areas in which a team like Miami will have a major advantage. This game, on the road, will be the toughest for Miami to win this season.
The post ANALYSIS: Ranking the Miami Hurricanes 2023 opponents from easiest to hardest appeared first on On3.
