What was he Thinking?
Well, here we are.
The ever famous (or infamous if you really mess this up) time of year when you make your forecast on the team you follow for the upcoming season.
For the last three weeks, we’ve read about an SMU team that is preparing to play its first season at the highest level of college football since 1995 when it was a member of the Southwest Conference.
Never has a season been as anticipated than perhaps the 1982 season, the year after remarkable 1981 campaign where the Mustangs went 10-1, won the SWC, finished No. 5 in the final AP rankings (they were on probation and could not play in a bowl) and were recognized as a co-national champion by the National Champion Foundation.
Well, that team also claimed a national title with an 11-0-1 record, won the SWC title again and beat Pitt, 7-3, in the Cotton Bowl.
While Head Coach Rhett Lashlee’s 2024 Mustangs don’t have that kind of buzz, the intrigue remains just as high. SMU is a power conference program again in the ACC.
There is some wind in the sail. SMU finished No. 22/24 in the final 2023 national rankings, won the American Athletic Conference and mined the NCAA transfer portal for key additions along the offensive and defensive line to prepare for the jump to the ACC.
The media offseason buzz never ceased. SMU received votes in the preseason AP and Coaches poll and was picked seventh in the preseason ACC poll. Some national pundits believe SMU could play in the ACC Championship game Dec. 7 in Charlotte.
Where have you gone, 1989?
Admittedly, when it comes to a team I have covered or followed, I’m always optimistic with a heavy lean toward being guarded. That’s just in my DNA. Unless you know it’s a total rebuild, you reset your expectations.
But my read on this team isn’t anywhere like someone who believes SMU is going to have to learn the hard way.
To put it succinctly, here’s my take on the 2024 SMU Mustangs.
>Pretty solid defense with a front that could compete with a lot P4 programs across the country. That defensive line must do its part to protect a secondary finding its way.
>An offense that can be good but needs to find consistency and then decide about its starting QB before league play starts Sept. 28 against Florida State. The banter about Preston Stone and Kevin Jennings has been fun and at times tiresome, but we’re going to get to a point where either Jennings or Stone is the guy. And if that decision remains in limbo through BYU, then the offense has a chance to come apart.
You need to know what your offense does best and with who running it. And when you do, commit to it. That’s the only way the rest of your offense is going to operate consistently.
>A head coach who has shown he can win but must cross the threshold of winning against P4 teams. That’s all that’s lacking in Lashlee’s resume. And he has to win a lot of those if this program is going to be practicing in the middle of December.
With that as the backdrop, let’s get to the game-by-game prediction for this team. The beauty of this season is with the Week 0 game, SMU will have three byes. All times are Central.
Aug. 24 at Nevada, Mackay Stadium, Reno, NV (7:00 p.m. CBSSN) – First game as a P4 program. Feels odd, doesn’t it? Former Texas DC Jeff Choate has a total rebuild in front of him. The Wolfpack suffered through consecutive 2-10 seasons in 2022 and 2023. This proud program will take its shot in the first half and ride emotion. But if SMU doesn’t help Nevada with turnovers and egregious penalties, the Mustangs should pull away. The separation for games like this usually occurs deep into the third quarter.
Score: SMU 38, Nevada 17; Mustangs 1-0
Aug. 31 vs. Houston Christian, Ford Stadium (7:00 p.m., ACC Extra) – The roster game. But what a way to welcome the Mustangs into this first ACC season with the Weber End Zone Complex and new Scoreboard ready to shine. SMU should be able to dictate how this game is to be played. If Keldric Luster isn’t playing QB by the late third quarter, people should be hmmm.
Score: SMU 54, Houston Christian 10; Mustangs 2-0
Sept. 6. vs. BYU, Ford Stadium (6:00 p.m., ESPN2) – In their first year as a member of the Big 12 in 2023, the Cougars just missed bowl eligibility going 5-7. However, they suffered losses on both sides of the ball. Of course, SMU has had its share of frustrations with BYU. See the 1980 Holiday Bowl and 2022 New Mexico Bowl. But in this first test against another P4 program, SMU’s defense will tell the story.
Score: SMU 30, BYU 13; Mustangs 3-0
Sept. 21 vs. TCU, Ford Stadium (4:00 p.m., CW) – For the last two meetings of this series – that’s 120 minutes of game clock time – SMU has led for just 7:27 of it. That’s not good. This is likely the final game of this series as we know it being played at SMU. No question, it’s a prove it game for SMU as it comes off its first bye to prepare. And while TCU has some QB questions, the Horned Frogs will want to leave Dallas on winning note. Sonny Dykes has mastered this game. And until we see it flip the other way in front of our eyes…
Score: TCU 37, SMU 28; Mustangs 3-1
Sept. 28 vs. Florida State, Ford Stadium (TBA) – The fervor around this first ACC conference game will be palpable. I kidded with ACC commissioner Jim Phillips that this game was P4 hazing. Florida State’s pep band playing the Seminole War Chant will let everyone know big-time college football is here. Another capacity crowd will watch. And while SMU will be jacked for it, there’s just going to be a difference between the Seminoles level of P4 football and the Mustangs level.
Score: Florida State 38, SMU 20; Mustangs 3-2
Oct. 5 at Louisville, L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium, Louisville (TBA) – Well, nothing speaks to competing in the ACC than playing the other team that played in the 2023 ACC title game in the second week of league play. The Cardinals are expected to be a little down from last year. However, they are playing at home. And that should account for something. This has the makings of being a better game than people think. Should Texas Tech QB transfer Tyler Shough be available to play this game – he’s had a history of injuries – then he’ll make enough plays.
Score: Louisville 35, SMU 30; Mustangs 3-3
Oct. 19 at Stanford, Stanford Stadium, Palo Alto, CA (TBA) – Lots of labels for this one following the second bye. SMU safety Jonathan McGill returns. It’s the EPOCH wine weekend. And noted SMU alum Bill Armstrong sunk a ton of money into this event to make it a success. SMU better win for that reason alone. It’s rumored that it will be a night game. The Cardinal are in a total rebuild. But winning on the road in conference play is still a challenge. The Mustangs are coming off their bye. They should be taking lessons from Florida State and Louisville. This is closer than people think.
Score: SMU 31, Stanford 26; Mustangs 4-3
Oct. 26 at Duke, Wallace Wade Stadium, Durham, NC (TBA) – Lots of paths cross in this one. Lashlee worked for Duke head coach Manny Diaz when they were at Miami. Duke offensive coordinator Johnny Brewer was SMU’s QB coach for the previous two years. For some reason, I just have this feeling that SMU is going to struggle here. WW stadium is a weird place to play. Ask Clemson, which came into that building last year a Top 10 team and got beat. Just think the rigors of three consecutive road games gets the better of SMU.
Score: Duke 28, SMU 20; Mustangs 4-4
Nov. 2 vs. Pitt, Ford Stadium (TBA) – Ah, memories of the 2012 Compass Bowl in Birmingham as well as the 1983 Cotton Bowl resurface. The Panthers should be better. But they are picked 13th in the preseason poll after coming off a 3-9 season. Head coach Pat Narduzzi is a defensive coach by trade. But his tenure has been just OK in the steel city. SMU enjoys the return home after not seeing Ford for more than one month.
Score: SMU 34, Pitt 17; Mustangs 5-4
Nov. 16 vs. Boston College, Ford Stadium (TBA) – There is some owin’ to do in this game. The Mustangs flunked the pre-ACC test against the Eagles in the Fenway Bowl last December, 23-14. A game they led going into the fourth quarter but let it slip. But the Mustangs should be ready for elusive BC quarterback Thomas Castellanos. The Mustangs can smell bowl eligibility and find a way to get there. Look for the linebackers to have a lot of say in the way Castellanos plays.
Score: SMU 24, Boston College 17; Mustangs 6-4
Nov. 23 at Virginia, Scott Stadium, Charlottesville, VA (TBA) – For some reason, this game on the schedule bothers me. Yes, the Mustangs should be the better team. Virginia is picked 16th of 17 teams in the ACC. And there’s no reason why the Mustangs should NOT lose this game. But the weather at that time of the year could be up in the air. And there’s typically one game of the season where your P4 team just has that clunker, and you walk out of there saying, “how did this happen?” This is that one for the Mustangs.
Score: Virginia 24, SMU 21; Mustangs 6-5
Nov. 30 SMU vs. Cal, Ford Stadium (TBA) – Provided he’s healthy, Cal running back Jaydn Ott should be a treat to watch. He rushed for 1,305 yards in 2023 and is projected to have another stellar season. Cal head coach Justin Wilcox has done a great job at the People’s Republic of Berkeley. But SMU wants to finish the season the right way and clinch a winning season on Thanksgiving weekend. The defense leads the way.
Score: SMU 30, Cal 20; Mustangs 7-5
The Mustangs are bowling. I have no idea where they will go. I think this team’s ceiling is nine wins. But there’s a part of me that believes that you just have to go through a P4 season in order to really understand what it is you’re dealing with. To use a phrase from a high school coach I used to cover: you don’t know what you don’t know until you know. Should be a learning experience for all of us.
Picks to Click
Offensive MVP – Justin Osborne, C
Defensive MVP – Tank Booker, DT
The Reason: Like most sports, success can be defined by strength up the middle.
The brash move for Osborne to become this team’s center when it actually had one in Jakai Clark spoke to the trust from the coaching staff to let Osborne make the calls and keep the line together. Offensive line coach Garin Justice believes the position is the best one for Osborne’s professional hopes. Should Osborne deliver, then SMU’s offensive line eliminates some of the mystery that currently follows it.
With a nod to Jonathan Jefferson, Booker is as experienced as it comes between stops at Maryland and Arkansas. He’s seen and experienced it all. Now, being viewed as the first option for arguably the first time in his career, Booker knows he can set a tone.
The way you’re going to know how effective he will be comes down to three things – 1) The A gaps are not great running options for the opposition 2) Booker is consistently drawing double teams 3) SMU’s linebackers are active.
*****
Now, a look at other SMU sports….
>The SMU women’s soccer program (1-0-0) notched its first win as a member of the Atlantic Coast Conference (ACC), shutting out Northwestern State (0-1-0) 3-0 in its season opener on Thursday inside Washburne Stadium.
“You are always happy to get a clean sheet, you are always happy to get a win on night one,” head coach Nicole Nelson said. “It’s always fast and furious to put it together and be as organized as you want, but we are happy with the win. We were doing things much better, like getting numbers in the box and creating goal-scoring opportunities.” The Mustangs return to Washburne Stadium for the second match of a nine-game homestand by taking on Texas Southern at 7 p.m. Sunday.
Let’s make it a great week. Pony Up!
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