The CaneSport On3: Will expectations meet reality for the 2024 Miami Hurricanes offense?

Expectations for the Miami Hurricanes’ offense are through the roof, and perhaps deservedly so. The team’s added a premier QB who led the nation’s No. 4 passing offense last year in Washington State’s Cam Ward. Oregon State 1,000-yard rusher Damien Martinez was a second portal window addition who will be the featured back. The WR room is stacked with Xavier Restrepo and Jacolby George returning after combining for 1,956 yards and 14 TDs, the tight ends room has Elijah Arroyo back healthy and added freshman H-back standout Elija Lofton, and the offensive line returns three starters plus Indiana multi-year starting center Zach Carpenter.

The pieces are in place.

Now the only remaining question is how high the ceiling is for this offensive unit.

Today we’re going to try and quantify that, and see if the expectations jive with reality.

First let’s look at the lineup of the last really proficient Miami offensive attack that averaged 35 or more points. That was 22 years ago, a 2002 team that was led by QB Ken Dorsey (3,369 yards, 28 TDs, 12 INTs in 13 games), RB Willis McGahee (Miami record 1,753 rush yards, 355 receiving yards, 29 TDs), WR Andre Johnson (1,092 yards, nine TDs) and TE Kellen Winslow, Jr. (726 yards, 8 TDs).

Those are all-time Miami greats.

So is it fair to say this year’s offense can really mirror that team’s 40.5 points per game in terms of production?

Well, maybe not.

But now consider that high-scoring offenses are somewhat the norm in today’s game. Eight different college programs surpassed 39 points per game last year – Tennessee, Ohio State, USC, Alabama, Georgia, Michigan, Washington and UCLA. All won nine or more games.

Let’s also look at recent Miami seasons and the top performers those years for the offense, to give an idea how much better this year’s team can be compared to those:

2023 31.5 points per game, No. 38 in nation. QB Tyler Van Dyke (19 TDs, 12 INTs), RBs Henry Parrish (625 yards, 6 TDs) and Mark Fletcher (514 yards, 5 TDs), WR Xavier Restrepo (1,092 yards), no TE had more than 72 yards.

2022 23.6 PPG, No. 96. QBs Tyler Van Dyke (10 TDs, 5 INTs), Jake Garcia (5 TDs, 4 INTs) and Jacurri Brown (3 TDs, 3 INTs), RB Henry Parrish (616 yards, 4 TDs), WR Colbie Young (367 yards, 5 TDs), TE Will Mallory (538 yards, 3 TDs).

2021 34.1 PPG, No. 23. QB Tyler Van Dyke (25 TDs, 6 INTs), RB Jaylan Knighton (561 yards, 8 TDs), WR Charleston Rambo (1,172 yards, 7 TDs), TE Will Mallory (347 yards, 4 TDs).

2020 34.0 PPG, No. 26. QB D’Eriq King (23 TDs, 5 INTs), RB Cam Harris (643 yards, 10 TDs), WR Mike Harley (799 yards, 7 TDs), TE Brevin Jordan (576 yards, 7 TDs).

2019 25.7 PPG, No. 90. QBs Jarren Williams (19 TDs, 7 INTs) and N’Kosi Perry (8 TDs, 3 INTs), RB Deejay Dallas (693 yards, 8 TDs), WR KJ Osborn (547 yards, 5 TDs), TE Brevin Jordan (495 yards, 2 TDs).

2018 28.8 PPG, No. 65. QBs N’Kosi Perry (13 TDs, 6 INTs) and Malik Rosier (6 TDs, 8 INTs), RB Travis Homer (985 yards, 4 TDs), WR Jeff Thomas (563 yards, 3 TDs), TE Brevin Jordan (287 yards, 4 TDs).

2017 29.1 PPG, No. 59. QB Malik Rosier (26 TDs, 14 INTs), RB Travis Homer (966 yards, 8 TDs), WR Braxton Berrios (679 yards, 9 TDs), TE Chris Herndon (477 yards, 4 TDs)

2016 34.3 PPG, No. 37. QB Brad Kaaya (27 TDs, 7 INTs), RB Mark Walton (1,117 yards), WR Ahmmon Richards (934 yards, 3 TDs), TE David Njoku (698 yards, 8 TDs).

2015 27.8 PPG, No. 71. QB Brad Kaaya (16 TDs, 5 INTs), RB Joe Yearby (1,002 yards, 6 TDs), WRs Rashawn Scott, Stacy Coley and Herb Waters (each over 600 yards), TE David Njoku (362 yards)

2014 29.2 PPG, No. 59. QB Brad Kaaya (26 TDs, 12 INTs), RB Duke Johnson (1,652 rush yards), WR Phillip Dorsett (871 yards, 10 TDSs), TE Clive Walford (676 yards, 7 TDS)

If you’re a glutton for punishment and want to go back a bit further you’ll find the 2013 offense ranked No. 33 in the nation in scoring (33.8 PPG), 2012 was 49th (31.4 PPG), 2011 was 64th (26.5 PPG), 2010 67th (26.3 PPG), 2009 31st (30.3 PPG), 2008 50th (28.1 PPG), 2007 102nd (20.6 PPG), 2006 87th (19.6 PPG), 2005 55th (27.1 PPG), 2004 21st (31.7 PPG) and 2003 51st (27.8 PPG).

As you look above, you see no Miami offense has ranked in the nation’s top 20 dating all the way back to that 2002 team that ranked fourth.

And given what Miami has on the offensive side this year, we think it’s certainly feasible that 2024 will be the first top 20 scoring offense for the Canes in over two decades. But is this really THAT much better a top end offense personnel-wise than what we saw in 2020 with QB D’Eriq King, a RB room that included Cam Harris, Don Chaney and Jaylan Knighton, WR Mike Harley and TE Brevin Jordan? Are the expectations perhaps ratcheted up a bit too high?

We’ll find that out when the games kick off.

Remember that only eight times in the last 22 seasons has Miami averaged even 30 points or more.

Our prediction for this year?

That it’s a top 20 offense that pushes past 35 points per game, and for reference Ole Miss was 16th in the nation last year with 35.1 average points. 35 points would be the highest average for a Miami team in 22 years … but we’re not ready to pronounce that this offense can approach the 40.5 points of that 2002 legendary attack.

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