The Key Big 12 Non-Conference Games
The Big 12 will play nine key indicator non-conference games this September. The games aren’t important because of conference pride – Texas fans would be fine if the Big 12 collapsed like a dying star after our departure – but these games do have real strength of schedule playoff implications and they are useful diagnostics to see who the real contenders are and which teams have improved their offseason weaknesses.
Let’s dive in and talk about why each game matters:
Texas @ Alabama
This will be the premier non-conference matchup in college football. A win in Tuscaloosa could be a launching pad comparable to ’05 Texas winning in Columbus. Whatever the Tide’s QB situation, there will be a lot of physical and well-developed talent playing in a hostile stadium where Nick Saban era Bama just doesn’t lose.
Oregon @ Texas Tech
The Red Raiders have only played 8 Power 5 non-conference games in the past 20 years. That’s pathetic, but it also means that this is the biggest Tech non-con since visiting 2002 Ohio State. As for hosting a good OOC opponent? Nothing comes to mind in the last 40 years. If Tech puts it on Bo Nix and the Ducks led by former Oregon transfer QB Tyler Shough, their visit to Austin for the season finale will become a collision course.
Utah @ Baylor
If Baylor QB Blake Shapen is ready to take the next step behind a revamped OL, this is the game that will tell us. We’ll also learn whether Dave Aranda’s revamped defensive staff gets them back to their 2021 standard rather than last year’s disappointment. Former Longhorn veteran QB Cameron Rising will be coolly unimpressed by Waco’s road environment and the Horns will get a useful early season scout for their Big 12 opener.
BYU @ Arkansas
The Cougars have a lot of question marks on defense after firing their defensive coordinator this offseason. Arkansas QB KJ Jefferson and 1,400+ yard rusher Rocket Sanders will help them find out just how much they’ve improved over the offseason. Can BYU QB Kedon Slovis return to circa 2019 USC form throwing to an underrated receiving corps? If Slovis regains his mojo, we’ll get a shootout and an early idea of whether the Cougs are pretenders or contenders.
Iowa @ Iowa State
First team to 13 wins. Iowa State had the less than distinct honor of being the best 4-8 football team in America last year and Matt Cambell is learning the hard way that timing your career moves is even more important than timing a blitz package. If the Cyclones can show a semblance of a running game to set up Hunter Dekkers in play action, they’ll exceed 2023 expectations.
If not? Expect another “look-at-these-close-losses” 4-8 or 5-7.
Kansas State @ Mizzou
KSU handled Missouri in Manhattan last year 40-12 despite poor play from Adrian Martinez. The Wildcat defense completely dominated and picked off Mizzou signal callers 4 times. Can the Wildcats still play good or even passable defense after heavy losses to graduation and the NFL? Or will they have to ball control themselves to conference contention? There’s a lot to like about KSU, but developmental programs that replace experienced, talented secondaries wholesale give me considerable pause. If a poor Missouri offense throws the ball on ’em, even in a loss, take note.
UCF @ Boise State
Texas doesn’t play UCF, but if the Knights pull off a road win, their potential to put losses on other Big 12 conference contenders @Oklahoma, @Kansas State and @Texas Tech increases. It also tells us that QB John Rhys Plumlee and Gus Malzahn likely have the offense humming as Boise State will field a quality defense. Winning on the Smurf Turf is never easy.
West Virginia @ Penn State
They also play Pitt, but this is the headliner. Like UCF, West Virginia doesn’t play Texas and the Mountaineers should be pretty bad, but if they put up a struggle against the Nittany Lions, it might presage them foisting an upset on a non-Texas contender. More likely scenario? Penn State drills them 41-10 because the Mountaineers stink.
Illinois @ Kansas
Bret Bielema likes Golden Corral buffets and smashmouth football. Illinois loses a bunch of elite defensive talent, but the Illini offensive identity will tell us a lot about KU’s ability to patch up their atrocious run defense and address a general lack of physicality. If Kansas stuffs the Illini running game while the Jayhawk offense flies, the Jayhawks get real interesting.
Other:
Both Oklahoma and TCU play feeble non-conference slates. Pay their early results no mind. Last year, OU was 3-0 against their non-cons and ranked 6th in the country before losing 7 of their last 10.
TCU hosts Colorado in Week 1, which will draw plenty of hype, but CU’s slapdash roster will have major growing pains.
Both the Sooners and Toads play SMU, so questionable use of the transitive property will abound.
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