Blue chip recruiting in the state of Texas

The big storyline of the Longhorn summer recruiting season has been their struggle to build momentum and land some of the bigger targets on their board. Despite winning the Big 12 Championship, making the playoffs for the first time in school history, and joining the SEC they’ve been unable to leverage that into success with some of the defensive tackles and wide receivers on the board.

The introduction of NIL and the transfer portal to the recruiting scene in college football has lead to some true roller coaster rides in recent seasons. Texas fans have not quite become accustomed to the new cycles in the yearly recruiting process and we’ve traveled a long way from Mack Brown’s “lock up the entire class at Junior Day” process from yesteryear.

There are still a few constants to recruiting though and one of them is geography. The state of Texas currently has a population of about 30 million people and a lot of them have sons who are good at football. It’s easier to convince those sons and their families to play their football at the flagship program located conveniently between the two biggest metroplexes in the state in a town known for being a fun place to live. The Longhorns are still in perfectly good shape for 2025.

Here’s how things look within the state of Texas in terms of producing top prospects at different positions.

The state of Texas in On3’s rankings

I have compiled for our readers a tally of how On3 has ranked players across the country in recent seasons and how many of those players hail from the Lone Star State (Texas). I think the results should be instructive on many levels.

A blue chip is any player rated as 4-stars or higher.

Position2022 blue chips2023 blue chips2024 blue chipsAverageQuarterback20 total, 4 Texans21 total, 2 Texans28 total, 5 Texans23 total, 3.7 TexansRunning back23 total, 5 Texans25 total, 6 Texans29 total, 4 Texans25.7 total, 5 TexansTight end22 total, 2 Texans22 total, 2 Texans22 total, 4 Texans22 total, 2.7 TexansWide receiver61 total, 10 Texans54 total, 14 Texans63 total, 15 Texans59.3 total, 13 TexansOff tackle29 total, 5 Texans30 total, 2 Texans30 total, 6 Texans29.7 total, 4.3 TexansInterior O-line27 total, 6 Texans30 total, 3 Texans31 total, 4 Texans29.3 total, 4.3 TexansDefensive line42 total, 6 Texans45 total, 9 Texans33 total, 4 Texans40 total, 6.3 TexansEdge40 total, 4 Texans38 total, 3 Texans36 total, 5 Texans38 total, 4 TexansLinebacker37 total, 3 Texans39 total, 5 Texans41 total, 6 Texans39 total, 4.7 TexansSafety35 total, 5 Texans32 total, 6 Texans35 total, 2 Texans34 total, 4.3 TexansCornerback40 total, 7 Texans40 total, 8 Texans35 total, 5 Texans38.3 total, 6.7 TexansAthlete10 total, 2 Texans11 total, 1 Texan17 total, 2 Texans12.7 total, 1.7 Texans

These numbers paint a nice picture of where there is abundance in blue chip recruiting and which recruiting wins and losses really make a difference.

The D-line description isn’t terribly useful as it includes anyone who would play with their hand in the dirt on defense who isn’t an Edge. There are defensive ends included in those numbers. In other words, the supply of D-tackles nationally or in Texas aren’t quite as high as this table suggests.

The remarkably high rates of blue chip quarterbacks are frankly kind of suspicious and the massive totals at wide receiver are very telling. Those are two of the positions where fans gets most excited about big signees…yet those are two of the easiest positions at which to stock with blue chip players BEFORE adding in the ease of recruiting either from the transfer portal.

In a given year, Texas wants at least one blue chip of every position on this list. At a few positions, perhaps 2-3 blue chips, but it’s normal for there to be a healthy mix of a few well-scouted 3-stars. To meet that quota by recruiting in-state prospects is frankly not that difficult. If you add some capacity for reaching into other states for players the marks become much easier to hit.

Texas’ current team ranking

The numbers above put Texas’ overall standing in recruiting the 2025 class in pretty clear terms. They currently have seven blue chips committed and five others in the boat, the other five are four interior linemen and a cornerback. There are plenty of in-state and out-of-state options for closing with blue chips.

They’ve taken a series of public losses for defensive linemen recruits and a 5-star wideout in Dakorien Moore. Two of the losses were to Oregon, a state which has zero total blue chips at any position in the 2025 rankings, two in 2024, and one in 2023. The recruiting of the Oregon Ducks hinges on being able to poach players from out of state with the resources and allurements they have as a result of being the hub of Nike. Texas will always have to battle against in-state and out of state programs who have to come to the state and aim for prospects the Longhorns want because the Lone Star State is one of such abundance.

Texas has four different discourses for some of their current recruiting “woes” in securing the blue chips they wanted.

Solve the problems later in the transfer portal. This is a really good solution at wide receiver and a less great option at defensive or offensive tackle.

Keep recruiting committed players and hover like a vulture around iffy programs. There are a few which are liable to have disappointing seasons or coaching changes which undercut the strength of the winning preseason recruiting pitch.

Round up contingencies, find non-blue chip alternative prospects likely to say yes to a Texas offer who project well to the Longhorn system.

Search out additional out-of-state blue chips and apply Oregon’s tactics. Oklahoma has always filled up their classes with blue chips by venturing into states that don’t have a local power who can keep them out.

It’s easy for fans to fixate on a few names in recruiting but recruiting is a big ocean with a lot of options for teams with resources such as Texas has to go find winning players. The Longhorns are not going to struggle to find blue chip wideouts who project to be dangerous in Steve Sarkisian’s offense and have plenty of pathways remaining to building championship rosters in years to come.

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