ANALYSIS: The Shannon Dawson offense might perform best with a true No. 1 WR threat

Before 2022, the leading wide receiver for the Miami Hurricanes in the prior five years had 1,172 yards (Charleston Rambo, 2021), 799 yards (Mike Harley, 2020), 547 yards (KJ Osborn, 2019), 563 yards (Jeff Thomas, 2018) and 679 yards (Braxton Berrios, 2017).

Last year?

The top wideout had all of 367 yards. That was JUCO arrival Colbie Young.

To put that in perspective, the last time the leading wide receiver on a Miami Hurricanes team had under 400 yards was all the way back in 2008 under Randy Shannon on a 7-6 team. That was when five different wide receivers had between 18 and 31 catches, with the top guy Aldarius Johnson (team high 31 receptions, team high 332 yards).

Last year it was tight end Will Mallory as the team’s most productive guy down the field with 538 yards; in 2008 it was running back Graig Cooper that almost took the team lead with 29 catches.

It almost always seems that the best Miami offenses have that top threat at wide receiver down the field. That helps open things up for other pass catchers, drawing attention away from them, as well as the running game with safeties needing to help out.

Which brings us to the question: Can this new offense under Shannon Dawson thrive if there is no elite No. 1 receiver?

Two years ago, remember, it was Charleston Rambo and Mike Harley that combined for 60.2 percent of the wide receivers’ catches the year and 57.3 percent of the total yards from the group, with Rambo the unquestioned No. 1 target who dominated. That offense under coordinator Rhett Lashlee ranked No. 23 in the nation with 34.1 points per game.

Last year it was a by-committee wide receiver group with little consistency. That offense under Josh Gattis ranked No. 96 in the nation with 23.6 points per game.

Maybe some of last year’s wide receiver issues were due to a Miami passing game that was a mess, including some of the games when Tyler Van Dyke started including back-to-back vs. Southern Miss and Texas A&M (240 yards per game, 1 total TD, 1 INT) as well as the loss to Middle Tennessee State (138 yards, TD, 2 INTs). Van Dyke had strong games vs. UNC (496 yards, 3 TDs, 1 INT) and Virginia Tech (342 yards, 2 TDs, 0 INTs) before getting injured and then the passing game struggled again with Jake Garcia and Jacurri Brown handling the QB spot. The Canes ended No. 60 in the nation in passing offense (239.0 yards) and No. 97 out of 131 teams in scoring offense (23.6 points).

As you look at the new guy taking over the Miami offense, Shannon Dawson’s Houston offenses the last two years ranked among the best passing attacks in the nation. In 2021 it ranked No. 23 in passing yards (271.6 yards) and last year No. 8 (314.0 yards).

So did he have a clear No. 1 receiver in each of those seasons?

Well, in 2020 when Dawson was the passing game coordinator it was a by-committee WR approach, and it worked out okay as the team averaged 30.0 points and 408.9 yards. On that team there were five different targets that had between 225 and 430 receiving yards, none of them with more than four TDs.

In 2021 after Dawson took over as coordinator there was a go-to threat and Houston averaged 35.9 points and 413.4 yards. It was a guy used mainly in the slot that was the main guy in that offense. Nathaniel Dell had 90 catches (next highest was 37) for 1,329 yards (next highest was 45) with 12 TDs (next highest was five).

This past season Dell again dominated. He had 109 catches (the next-highest on the team was 41) with 1,398 yards (next highest was 601) and 17 TDs (next highest was seven). And Houston averaged 36.1 points and 455.8 yards.

So in that three-year window the Houston offense did function better with a top WR threat, and Dawson had that go-to guy in his last two years as coordinator.

As that pertains to Miami?

Mallory is gone, and Miami needs its wide receiving corps to step up. This spring the first-teamers were Young as a returning starter with unproven Jacolby George and Xavier Restrepo in the slot. George and Restrepo, who was injured for part of last season, have the potential to break out. It also helps that Van Dyke is back healthy after missing the latter half of 2022. Aside from those three receivers? There are guys who could emerge but haven’t to this point, ranging from speedy true freshmen Ray Ray Joseph and Robby Washington to returners Brashard Smith, Mike Redding and Frank Ladson.

Smith had 199 yards, Redding 217 and Ladson 298 a year ago with plenty of opportunities to shine. So that doesn’t quite scream breakout player in 2023.

All of the above other than the two true freshmen are the same guys that were on the roster a year ago when the receivers room didn’t make much of a dent in the attack.

But there also are a pair of transfer arrivals: Tyler Harrell from Alabama and Shemar Kirk from junior college.

Can either be that No. 1 receiving type threat?

Well, Harrell has the speed to do it after being timed at 4.24 seconds in the 40. But he hasn’t done it in the past. As a freshman in 2018 at Louisville he caught two passes, then redshirted in 2019 and only played nine reps in 2020. He started to show his game breaking ability there in 2021, when he finished with 18 catches for 523 yards (29.1 yards per catch) and six TDs. Harrell transferred to ‘Bama after that 2021 season, but last year had a foot injury that cost him a chance to really make any kind of impact. He wound up playing just 33 reps and had two catches for 18 yards.

As for Kirk?

At Reedley College he had 45 catches in eight games with 782 yards and eight TDs as a freshman. That included an 85-yard TD. And this past season he played in 10 games and had 31 receptions for 664 yards with seven TDs. One of those? A 90-yarder. That, of course, was vs. a much different level of competition.

So there’s a question mark if either can be that guy.

If one of those two or someone else doesn’t step up as a No. 1 threat, can a by-committee approach like Houston had a few years ago work? Sure, if they are all good enough to be playmakers. Optimally you want one guy you can lean on and make the rest of the guys just a supporting cast and go with the hot hand at No. 2/No. 3 WR. We saw last year that the committee thing wasn’t effective at Miami, and even with a new offense it’s tough to say that would change.

So UM needs to find a top guy that can put defenses on its heels and prevent stacking of the box, etc.

With that said the backs and tight ends will help take some pressure off, and last season Dawson’s three running backs combined for 58 catches and 469 yards while the top tight end had Christian Trahan had 23 catches for 237 yards.

There is enough talent on this Miami wide receiver roster to make the Dawson engine hum just fine.

But it sure would be nice for the Hurricanes to have a top guy emerge that’s really able to take the top off a defense.

Who that might be?

We won’t find out till the fall.

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