STATE OF THE U 2024: Year 3 for a coach can be a flashpoint for success, so pressure is on Mario Cristobal and Miami
Texas and Florida State. If you want a reason why the Miami Hurricanes can quickly turn things around in Year 3 of the Mario Cristobal era, look no further than those two programs.
First let’s look at the Longhorns and Steve Sarkisian. He took over a program that had one 10-win season in the prior 11 seasons, and in his first two years the team went 13-12, similar to Cristobal’s 12-13. Then last year, in Sarkisian’s third season, the program exploded to a 12-2 record with a Sugar Bowl playoff loss ending the season. Texas was ranked as high as No. 3 in the nation. Notable here is the Longhorns were fairly consistent on offense in all three years (averaging between 34 and 36 points), but it was the defense that made marked improvements, going from allowing 31.1 and 21.6 points per game in 2021 and 2022 to just 18.9 points last year. In Miami’s case perhaps it’s a case of the defense needing to simply replicate what it did last year (allowed 22.8 points after allowing 26.8 in 2022) while increasing its offensive output from 31.5 points last year to closer to the 40 points per game you see from championship teams.
As it pertains to Florida State’s trajectory, Mike Norvell took over a struggling program that had gone 18-20 in its prior three years. His first season ended with a 3-6 record, then in 2021 FSU was 5-7 and followed that with a 10-3 2022 record. Last year, of course, the Seminoles ended the regular season undefeated before being blown out in the Orange Bowl. FSU went from being ranked 74th in scoring offense and 68th in scoring defense in 2021 to 15th and 20th in 2022, then were 19th and 18th in those categories last year.
Gary Ferman’s series introduction overview as Miami looks to turn around program … 2020 recruiting class analysis …. 2021 recruiting class analysis … 2022 recruiting class analysis … 2023 recruiting class analysis
Interestingly, Texas built its roster mainly through recruiting – in 2021, 2022 and 2023 the team averaged taking six transfers per year. Florida State, on the other hand, took the opposite approach, adding a lot of talent through the transfer portal. FSU took 11 transfers in 2021, 14 in 2022 and 12 more last season. Nine of the additions last year were starters.
So you can find success either way, and in Miami’s case Cristobal is trying to do a little of both. If you look at our projected depth chart for the coming season, you’ll find nine of the 22 starters are transfers. The younger players are continuing to develop, of course.
So while hopes are high this can be Miami’s second 10-win season in the last two decades, it’s worth keeping in mind that year 3 for a successful head coach probably should see some forward momentum. Conversely there are plenty of coaches on the college football landscape that fail in year 3 and that’s usually not a great sign for the immediate future of that team with that coach.
As it pertains to Miami’s recent history?
Year 3 under Manny Diaz saw a 7-5 record off an 8-3 season, and year 3 under Mark Richt was 7-6 after a 10-3 year. If you want to delve back a little further, year 3 under Al Golden and Randy Shannon were actually promising, with Golden turning a 7-5 team into a 9-4 one, and Shannon’s second year 7-6 record followed by a 9-4 record as well. Those coaches didn’t fare well in year 4, though, with Golden going 6-7 and Shannon 7-5 before being fired prior to the final game.
The bottom line is you want a coach to continue that upward trend, right? If you are doing worse in year 3 or year 4 than when you arrived, after putting together a roster that is mainly your players, that’s not a good sign. So the hope for Miami fans when it comes to Cristobal, who was 5-7 in year 1 and 7-6 last year, is that a 9- or 10-win season will be the low bar this coming season based on the perceived personnel and schedule.
That would be a nice jump up.
And a very bright sign for the future of the Hurricanes in the Cristobal Era.
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