Andy Kotelnicki brings one key element to Penn State: Efficiency

We’ve discussed what went wrong with the Penn State offense last year, given you breakdowns of the new one under Andy Kotelnicki, and turned over just about every rock imaginable to understand where the team can improve in 2023.

However, despite the situation’s complexity, one simple statistic shows exactly how the Penn State offensive passing game can improve from last year. It’s not about deep shots, total yardage, or the total number of called passing plays. Today, we’re focusing on efficiency.

Penn State yards per route run in 2023 was dreadful

In short, PFF’s yards per route run metric is about efficiency and productivity. It charts how many yards per total route a receiver gains, not just on targets or receptions. This number gives a broader context to that player’s involvement in the passing game and overall game plan. In case you didn’t read the headline of this section, it was bad last season. Here’s how it broke down for the team’s top three wide receivers last season.

KeAndre Lambert-Smith 1.92

Dante Cephas: 1.41

Harrison Wallace 1.31

For those unfamiliar with the stat, 2.00 yards per route run is a good number. Anything above that is a very good contributor in the passing game. It’s a standout season worthy of historical recognition once you get into the high 2s and low 3s. For example, Malik Nabers racked up 3.62 yards per route last year and ended his spring as the second receiver off the board in the 2023 NFL Draft. The top receiver, Marvin Harrison Jr, came in at 3.44.

So as you can see, KeAndre Lambert-Smith’s figure of 1.94 isn’t terrible, but it is an issue with that figure that leads your team. His number was tied for 93rd last season.

On the flip side, anything below 1.5 is below average or bad. It shows that a receiver is not a regular threat in his own offense and is running more empty routes than he is productive ones. Trey Wallace’s constant injury situation last year explains part of his issues, but Dante Cephas was the team’s second-leading receiver in 2023. These are alarming efficiency numbers.

Kotelnicki to the rescue

This is where new Penn State offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki shines. He doesn’t throw the ball nearly as much, but you get the bang for your buck with his passing attack. Here’s the rundown of Penn State and Kansas’ top three receivers ranked by YPRR.

Quentin Skinner: 2.51

Luke Grimm: 2.49

Lawrence Arnold: 2.48

KeAndre Lambert-Smith 1.92

Dante Cephas: 1.41

Harrison Wallace 1.31

As you can see, the Kansas passing attack lapped the Penn State unit in almost all accounts. The more embarrassing aspect of this efficiency rating applies to the Lion’s tight end room. Tight ends aren’t as productive as wide receivers in this aspect. For example, first-round pick Brock Bowers led the nation at 2.65 YPRR. However, Penn State’s ultra-dangerous threat of Theo Johnson had a shockingly bad rating last season.

Mason Fairchild: 1.77

Tyler Warren: 1.41

Theo Johnson 1.26

So, does Penn State need an elite quarterback to operate this offense? No. Drew Allar is more than capable of creating an output similar to Jason Bean from Kansas’ 2023 squad. With similar talent returning in 2024, Penn State’s passing attack should be able to reorient and improve, thanks to Kotelnicki’s game plan.

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