Early 2024 Heisman Odds & How To Bet Wisely
The Hypesman occasionally goes to the best player in college football and betting on it is generally a fool’s errand, but a 2024 post-Spring odds release suggests that there is no clear frontrunner and Vegas is still feeling its way through the contenders.
That might represent an opportunity.
Right now this is the favored field
Carson Beck, Quinn Ewers, Jalen Milroe and Dillon Gabriel are the most heavily favored at around +800. They have a lot in common: talent, a track record, name familiarity, they’re QBs, strong supporting casts on playoff contending teams.
Very chalky.
However, please understand that there are no “values” in Heisman betting, but understanding its meaningful trends can help you if you want to have some fun with it.
HEISMAN BETTING CONSIDERATIONS
Over the last decade, exactly one player favored to win the Heisman in Week 1 actually won the award.
Sharp bettors tend to avoid open-ended futures because they know that Vegas offers the most juiced odds on almost all futures, especially the Heisman. What does that mean? It means if we added up the implied probabilities of all of the Heisman candidates, it wouldn’t add up to 100%. It would be something more like 150%. Does the world operate on a scale of 150% probability? Juice can’t be avoided, but we’re looking for 110% markets.
Think like the voters who award it. I struggle with this sometimes. The Heisman is voted on by previous winners and sports journalists. Primarily the latter. Journalists love narratives, are shameless hype machine promoters while also being willing marks, they fixate on bullshit like “a Heisman moment” and struggle to understand general cause and effect. This is being improved as legacy media is influenced by actually knowledgeable opinion makers from alternative media, handicappers and advanced stats, but incurious dullards are still not in short supply.
Twenty years ago, I’d tell you this was a senior award. That’s not true anymore. So don’t let classification constrain you if a player is exceptional.
Don’t bet non-QBs. It’s a trap. For every Devonta Smith exception, there are a dozen QB counterpoints. QB worship is accelerating, not leveling.
Vegas lists running backs to take dumb money. When running backs win, they must be freaking amazing and there can’t be a viable QB alternative. If your retort is Reggie Bush-Vince Young, you understand my rage and I refer to my earlier comments about journalists. Never fade the narrative and there’s never been one like the ’05 USC hype machine.
That all written, if you know anyone who actually bet Blake Corum to win the Heisman, you have my permission to mock them.
It’s an individual award, but modern voters assume only good teams can have the best player. The days of Paul Hornung winning the Heisman on a 2-8 Notre Dame are over. Yes, that really happened.
The winner’s team needs to at least go 9-3, no matter how prolific the offense, and it’s vastly preferable to be a national title contender. Betting Shedeur Sanders because you think he’s the first QB drafted is setting money on fire.
Fade the favorites for risk-adjusted reward. Identify high upside dark horses. This year that could be players like Garrett Nussmeier, Avery Johnson, Nico Iamaleava. If one of them winning the Heisman seems insane to you, show me your preseason notes about Baker Mayfield, Joe Burrow and Jayden Daniels before their Heisman campaigns.
Speaking of those guys (and Kyler Murray), transfers with baggage and perceived ceilings are opportunities. This year, that’s someone like Cam Ward at Miami. You could argue for Will Howard at Ohio State, but he probably gets the Mac Jones supporting cast treatment if he kills it there. Ward will get the credit if Miami surprises and wins the ACC as the perception will be that they are coached by a moron and he was the piece that got them over.
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Betting Heisman futures is pretty dumb, but if you’re going to embrace dumb, do it smart.
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