ANALYSIS: How many games can the Miami Hurricanes win in 2023?

If Miami fans want a not-so-fun history lesson, there’s this. During the 19-year period from 1985-2003 the Hurricanes’ average win-loss record was 10.2-1.9. So, essentially, over that almost two decade span the team’s record in an average year was 10-2. That included the probation period and a 5-6 record in 1997, mind you.

Since 2003?

From 2004-2022 this team’s average win-loss mark is 7.4-5.1. So usually 7-5 or 8-5.

There was one 10-win season over those last 19 years, 10-3 in 2017; in the 19 prior years there were 13 seasons of double-digit wins.

With that as the background, back to current day.

And the question of whether the Miami Hurricanes can soon return to those 10-win averages.

Could that happen as soon as this season?

Well, most aren’t betting on it.

The Hurricanes are already listed as an ultra-early underdog at home to Texas A&M, for instance – by 6.5 points. That’s per the FanDuel Sportsbook.

Miami also checks in at +15000 to win the national title per the DraftKings Sportsbook. That’s tied for 28th in the nation with Baylor, Florida and NC State.

The Canes face a daunting schedule that includes the Aggies plus a really difficult six-game stretch at North Carolina, vs. Clemson, vs. Virginia, at NC State, at Florida State and vs. Louisville.

To give an idea of the perception of those opponents, four of the above seven teams (including Texas A&M) are ranked ahead of Miami in chances to win the national title with Florida State +1800, Clemson +2200, Texas A&M +5000, UNC +10000. And NC State is tied with Miami at +15000, Louisville is a notch below at +20000 and UVA is +50000.

Based on the odds, if Miami were to lose to the teams with better odds and beat the ones with worse odds, then the Canes would finish 2023 with a 7-4 record … with NC State a toss-up.

So about seven to eight wins is a fair current assessment of what is expected from this year’s program. Both are probably acceptable considering last season’s 5-7 debacle that included a 45-31 loss to Middle Tennessee State and blowout losses to Duke, FSU, Clemson and Pitt.

Another metric to consider when it comes to Miami’s wins this season? DraftKings recently released its projected win totals for ACC teams … and put Miami at 7.5 wins. So that matches up with our take above.

The projected wins total is tied for fourth-most in the conference, behind FSU’s 10, Clemson’s 9.5, UNC’s 8.5 and tied with Louisville’s 7.5 Not far behind: NC State, Syracuse, Duke and Pitt all with 6.5 wins.

Of course, if QB Tyler Van Dyke is back to his form from two years ago, if the starters on both sides of the ball can stay healthy (considering many positions have a lack of true depth), if the offensive line can be substantially better after reshaping its first team through the portal and recruiting (Javion Cohen from Alabama, Matt Lee from UCF and two five-star signees) and if the team really grasps the schemes of new coordinators on both sides then there could be that double-digit win potential.

It’s a lot of ifs.

But anything can happen in college football.

And isn’t Miami due for a few breaks after suffering for the last 19 years?

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