The 3-2-1: Michigan football, basketball best bets, more

There aren’t many certainties in college athletics these days, especially with the uncertainty the transfer portal, etc., can create for Michigan and everyone else. It’s now a year-by-year endeavor just to field a competitive team, not knowing who’s coming or going.

But we have learned a lot about the Michigan football team this spring, and about the basketball program under Dusty May’s leadership. Here are three aspects of football and basketball we’re very confident about heading into the summer, two concerns, and one prediction in this week’s 3-2-1 column.

Three bold April Michigan football and basketball thoughts

3. Dusty May was the perfect guy for the Michigan basketball job. And honestly, it doesn’t feel that bold saying it. Now, we’ll see how he does with the Xs and Os, but you don’t get to a Final Four at Florida Atlantic if you’re poor in that area. May is such a basketball junkie that he’s always learning and willing to listen to others to address his shortcomings. As one who worked with him in the past said, “he’d almost run back to his desk after a bathroom break to get back to work.”

May has bought into not getting into bidding wars for top players, and it’s probably going to cost him a shot at Johnell Davis (who might command close to 7 figures if some of the analysts are correct). He’s interested in culture and finding guys who want to be here for more than just the money, and it appears to be working. At the same time, he’s kept his promise about embracing NIL and doing his part to spend “25 to 35 percent of his time” on that aspect.

He has a plan, and he’s following it. We don’t know how he’ll do here (though every day it seems more and more likely he’ll succeed), but we can say it certainly appears Michigan got the right guy to replace Juwan Howard.

2. The Michigan football defense won’t put up similar numbers to last year … but that’s only because the offense won’t be quite as good, meaning they’ll be on the field a bit longer. Complementary football is a huge reason the Wolverines were able to win a national title (though the “air it out” crowd and five remaining members of the Rich Rodriguez “point-a-minute (vs. poor teams), defense optional” crowd won’t like to hear it).

Head coach Jim Harbaugh proved you can still win with great defense and an offense that wears teams down in the fourth quarter, getting back to his roots after the failed Josh Gattis experiment. Head coach Sherrone Moore wants to do it the same way, and he’s got the defense for it — can he find an offense to complement it?

We’ll find out. But we do expect this defense to be nasty enough to keep the Wolverines in every game. It could even carry the day in several Iowa style, if necessary (though we don’t expect the offense to be nearly that bad).

1. Michigan football will fall short of its needs in the 2024 portal … which probably means they won’t be winning a Big Ten title. It’s getting harder and harder to compete without paying crazy money — a great quarterback, for example, isn’t coming here without a huge guarantee. At that point, we expect the coaches to say they’re comfortable with what they’ve got in the room, and they’ll be “all-in” with Alex Orji.

Orji is a great athlete, of course, and if they get great line play and open holes for the backs, it can work. But we’ve been spoiled the last few years by J.J. McCarthy, and it’s going to be hard to take a step back from that … especially since this is a title-contending team with great quarterback play.

Two thoughts on the basketball and football rosters in 2024-25

2. The Michigan basketball roster is taking shape, and it’s going to be competitive. Michigan “leads” for several prospects we know of between the portal and the prep ranks, including FAU 7-footer Vlad Goldin, Auburn guard Tre Donaldson (visiting today), Chatsworth (Cali.) Sierra Canyon 2024 Justin Pippen, and they’re strong with several others.

May has cast a wide net, and there’s no desperation here. He can be picky, and he’s only going to pursue kids he knows he can get into school. He’s not going to make excuses — he’s simply going to outwork everyone to field a competitive team.

There’s an unbelievably positive vibe in the building right now, per our sources, and great culture emerging from the top down.

1. The second starting Michigan football corner (to Will Johnson) isn’t currently on the roster. Yes, we believe Michigan will find someone similar to Josh Wallace, if not better (and make no mistake — Wallace was really, really good last year), while the young guys like DJ Waller Jr. and Jyaire Hill continue to emerge.

The coaches understand they have many of the pieces in place to make a run at a repeat. As we’ve noted, corner, linebacker, receiver, and possibly quarterback are those portal additions that could turn a potential contender into a Big Ten favorite again.

Some U-M coaches have started following outstanding Arizona corner Tacario Davis, for example. While that might not mean anything, it’s fun to think about, and seems to indicate they’re serious about adding to the roster with some outstanding players.

One Michigan football prediction

Michigan will go through a few different offensive line iterations before settling on one by Big Ten season. This isn’t uncommon, and it doesn’t spell doom for the men up front — it just means it sometimes takes game action to come up with the best combinations. Guys need to prove themselves in games, and that’s when you find out who works best together, etc.

But this isn’t like 13 years ago when they had 5 guys and pretty much nobody else. There’s talent here … it’s just a matter of finding the right combination.

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